Exploring the water-energy-food nexus in Rwanda’s Akagara Basin

This report by the Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI) examines the interdependencies between water, energy, and food security in Rwanda's Akagera Basin. Using a 'nexus toolkit' comprising policy coherence analysis and quantitative scenario modelling (WEAP and LEAP), the study evaluates how national development goals—such as agricultural intensification and energy transition—interact and compete for limited natural resources. The research highlights criticalS significant trade-offs, particularly regarding water availability for irrigation versus hydropower and the persistent risk of deforestation despite efforts to transition to cleaner cooking fuels.

• The study identifies critical policy conflicts where energy transitions may constrain agricultural transformations if water is prioritised for hydropower over irrigation, and conversely, agricultural intensification could counteract hydropower generation if irrigation water is consumed upstream.
• Modelling indicates that by 2050, water availability will be insufficient to meet rising demands in both the energy and agriculture sectors across all scenarios. In the 'Optimistic' scenario, the annual unmet demand for irrigation is estimated at 22.5 km3, which exceeds the total annual water availability for the study area (19 km3).
• Despite efforts to implement cleaner cooking technologies, biomass scarcity remains a critical constraint. In the Optimistic scenario, the demand for fuel wood is projected to be twice as high as the supply by 2050, maintaining a high risk of deforestation and forest degradation.
• The electricity mix is projected to shift significantly by 2050; while diesel (57%) and hydropower (40%) dominate the 2010 mix, peat and methane are expected to take 52% and 9% shares respectively by 2050 across all scenarios.
• Agricultural transformation is expected to increase yields by 30% in the Pessimistic scenario and 45% in the Optimistic scenario by 2050. However, high population growth is expected to outpace these gains, with unmet food demand projected to increase from 1.1 Mton/yr currently to between 1.9 and 2.5 Mton/yr by 2050.
• The use of peat for electricity generation, projected to provide over half of the country's power by 2050, is identified as a major threat to wetland ecosystems.
• Interventions to promote efficient cooking fuels can significantly reduce household energy demand; the Optimistic scenario shows a 49% reduction in demand for cooking compared to the Reference scenario by 2050.
• At the district level in Rutsiro, Bugesera, and Kirehe, common challenges include low electricity connectivity (96–99% without access) and high reliance on firewood (95–97% of families), with deforestation driven by both local needs and urban demand for charcoal in Kigali.

APA

Johnson, O. W., Muhoza, C., Ogeya, M., Ogol, T., Binnington, T., Flores, F., & Karlberg, L. (2018). Exploring the water-energy-food nexus in Rwanda’s Akagara Basin. Stockholm Environment Institute. https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/rwanda-nexus-project-report-final-1.pdf

Chicago

Johnson, Oliver W., Cassilde Muhoza, Mbeo Ogeya, Tom Ogol, Taylor Binnington, Francisco Flores, and Louise Karlberg. Exploring the water-energy-food nexus in Rwanda’s Akagara Basin. Stockholm Environment Institute, 2018. https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/rwanda-nexus-project-report-final-1.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Johnson |first1=Oliver W. |last2=Muhoza |first2=Cassilde |last3=Ogeya |first3=Mbeo |last4=Ogol |first4=Tom |last5=Binnington |first5=Taylor |last6=Flores |first6=Francisco |last7=Karlberg |first7=Louise |title=Exploring the water-energy-food nexus in Rwanda’s Akagara Basin |publisher=Stockholm Environment Institute |date=November 2018 |url=https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/rwanda-nexus-project-report-final-1.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{johnson2018exploring, author = {Johnson, Oliver W. and Muhoza, Cassilde and Ogeya, Mbeo and Ogol, Tom and Binnington, Taylor and Flores, Francisco and Karlberg, Louise}, title = {{Exploring the water-energy-food nexus in Rwanda’s Akagara Basin}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2018}, month = nov, url = {https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/rwanda-nexus-project-report-final-1.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }