Exploring the water-energy-food nexus in Rwanda’s Akagara Basin

The report applies a 'nexus toolkit' to analyze the interactions between agricultural transformation, energy transition, and natural resource use in Rwanda, specifically within the Akagera Basin. Using policy coherence mapping and scenario modelling (Reference, Pessimistic, and Optimistic) up to 2050, the study finds that high population growth and climate change create severe pressure on water and biomass. Key findings indicate that ambitious national plans for irrigation and hydropower may be physically impossible to meet due to water scarcity, and that the transition to peat for electricity will increase GHG emissions despite reductions in cooking-fuel emissions. At the district level, the report identifies critical needs for improved water management, off-grid energy solutions, and a shift away from urban charcoal demand to combat deforestation.

• The policy coherence analysis identifies potential conflicts where energy transitions could constrain agricultural transformations if water is prioritised for hydropower over irrigation, although synergies exist through multi-purpose dams.
• Modelling indicates that by 2050, total electricity demand will rise significantly across all scenarios, with the Reference scenario projecting a ten-fold increase from 440 GWh in 2010 to 4,134 GWh in 2050.
• The projected electricity mix for 2050 shows a shift toward peat and methane, which are expected to hold 52% and 9% shares respectively, while the share of hydropower is projected to decrease to approximately 16-17%.
• Interventions to adopt efficient cooking fuels and technologies can reduce household energy demand for cooking by up to 49% in the Optimistic scenario compared to the Reference scenario.
• Despite agricultural modernization, food demand is expected to outpace production by 2050; the unmet demand for food is projected to increase from 1.1 Mton/yr currently to between 1.9 and 2.5 Mton/yr depending on the scenario.
• Water availability is projected to be insufficient for both irrigation and hydropower by 2050 in all scenarios. In the Optimistic scenario, the total annual unmet demand for irrigation (approx. 22.5 km3) exceeds the total water availability for the study area (approx. 19 km3).
• Biomass scarcity remains a critical constraint across all scenarios, with wood demand continuing to exceed supply, posing a high risk of deforestation and forest degradation.
• Overall GHG emissions are projected to increase as energy supply grows and peat becomes a major electricity source, although the Optimistic scenario shows a 10% reduction compared to the Reference scenario due to cleaner cooking fuels.
• At the district level in Rutsiro, Bugesera, and Kirehe, major challenges include a lack of clean drinking water, high reliance on firewood (95-97% of families), and low agricultural productivity exacerbated by climate variability.
• Deforestation in the targeted districts is driven largely by agricultural land clearing and the production of charcoal to meet demand in urban areas, specifically Kigali.
• The report concludes that the 'pessimistic' scenario of slow development may be less damaging to natural resource sustainability than the 'optimistic' scenario, which sees diminishing returns on infrastructure due to absolute water limits.

APA

Johnson, O. W., Muhoza, C., Ogeya, M., Ogol, T., Binnington, T., Flores, F., & Karlberg, L. (2018). Exploring the water-energy-food nexus in Rwanda’s Akagara Basin. Stockholm Environment Institute. https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/rwanda-nexus-project-report-final-1.pdf

Chicago

Johnson, Oliver W., Cassilde Muhoza, Mbeo Ogeya, Tom Ogol, Taylor Binnington, Francisco Flores, and Louise Karlberg. Exploring the water-energy-food nexus in Rwanda’s Akagara Basin. Stockholm Environment Institute, 2018. https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/rwanda-nexus-project-report-final-1.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Johnson |first1=Oliver W. |last2=Muhoza |first2=Cassilde |last3=Ogeya |first3=Mbeo |last4=Ogol |first4=Tom |last5=Binnington |first5=Taylor |last6=Flores |first6=Francisco |last7=Karlberg |first7=Louise |title=Exploring the water-energy-food nexus in Rwanda’s Akagara Basin |publisher=Stockholm Environment Institute |date=November 2018 |url=https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/rwanda-nexus-project-report-final-1.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{johnson2018exploring, author = {Johnson, Oliver W. and Muhoza, Cassilde and Ogeya, Mbeo and Ogol, Tom and Binnington, Taylor and Flores, Francisco and Karlberg, Louise}, title = {{Exploring the water-energy-food nexus in Rwanda’s Akagara Basin}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2018}, month = nov, url = {https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/rwanda-nexus-project-report-final-1.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }