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The report examines the interlinkages between water, energy, and food security in Rwanda's Akagera Basin to support climate-resilient development. It highlights how national goals to intensify agriculture and increase energy output, combined with population growth, create competition for limited water and biomass resources. To address these challenges, the report utilizes a 'nexus toolkit' to conduct policy coherence analysis, national-level quantitative scenario modeling, and district-level visioning exercises.

The document examines the water-energy-food nexus in Rwanda, highlighting that high population growth and climate change create severe pressure on land, water, and biomass. Scenario modelling indicates that even under optimistic conditions, fuel wood demand will exceed supply, and aggressive irrigation targets could exceed water availability by three times. The authors argue that current sectoral disconnects threaten ecosystem preservation and recommend coordinated central planning and multi-stakeholder dialogue to avoid negative externalities.

The report applies a 'nexus toolkit' to analyze the interactions between agricultural transformation, energy transition, and natural resource use in Rwanda, specifically within the Akagera Basin. Using policy coherence mapping and scenario modelling (Reference, Pessimistic, and Optimistic) up to 2050, the study finds that high population growth and climate change create severe pressure on water and biomass. Key findings indicate that ambitious national plans for irrigation and hydropower may be physically impossible to meet due to water scarcity, and that the transition to peat for electricity will increase GHG emissions despite reductions in cooking-fuel emissions. At the district level, the report identifies critical needs for improved water management, off-grid energy solutions, and a shift away from urban charcoal demand to combat deforestation.

The document outlines three development pathways for Rwanda—reference, pessimistic, and optimistic—to explore the synergies and trade-offs between agricultural transformation and energy transition. It provides the specific quantitative inputs and qualitative assumptions used in the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) and Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) models, including GDP growth, population trends, land-use changes, and cookstove penetration rates.

The document examines the tension between Rwanda's national development goals—such as becoming a middle-income country by 2020—and the resulting pressure on natural resources at the district level. Focusing on Rutsiro, Bugesera, and Kirehe, it identifies widespread scarcity of woody biomass and clean water, driven by urban demand for charcoal and traditional farming practices. It argues that while national strategies like the Green Growth and Climate Resilience Strategy exist, there is a gap in translating these into local action, necessitating tailored district-level solutions and national policy incentives to shift urban energy demand away from charcoal.

The project focuses on the Akagera Basin in Rwanda, addressing the increasing competition for water, energy, and food resources driven by population growth and economic transformation. By utilizing the Stockholm Environment Institute's WEAP and LEAP modelling tools, the initiative aims to identify sustainable development pathways and avoid sector-based plan incompatibilities. Key goals include producing 25 technical reports and policy briefs, engaging over 2,000 stakeholders, and supporting over 15 Nature Based Community Enterprises (NBCEs) to enhance climate resilience in the districts of Bugesera, Kirehe, Ngororero, and Rutsiro.