Narratives, data and assumptions used to model development scenarios and climate sub-scenarios for Rwanda

This report details the narratives, data, and assumptions used by the Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI) and the Albertine Rift Conservation Society (ARCOS) to model development and climate scenarios for Rwanda up to 2050. Using the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) and Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) tools, the authors co-created three primary pathways—reference, pessimistic, and optimistic—to explore the synergies and trade-offs between agricultural transformation and energy transition.

• The report establishes three development pathways for Rwanda up to 2050: a reference scenario based on historical trends, a pessimistic scenario characterized by slow development and weak implementation of national plans, and an optimistic scenario where national goals for agricultural and energy modernization are fully achieved sustainably.
• In the optimistic scenario, Rwanda is projected to modernize 40% of its farmland by 2050 through increased mechanization, higher fertilizer use, and expanded irrigation, including the expansion of agricultural lands by 100,000 ha into marshlands.
• The optimistic energy scenario assumes all households gain electricity access by 2030, with a shift toward LPG and biogas for cooking and a 30% increase in forest cover to stabilize fuelwood supply.
• The pessimistic scenario envisions a future where traditional farming persists on 80% of croplands and biomass remains the primary cooking fuel, leading to increased demand for wood fuels and threats to forests and marshlands.
• Rwanda's national ambitions include becoming a middle-income country, reducing the poverty rate to 30%, and increasing average life expectancy to 55 years by 2020, alongside significant growth in energy generation from 45 MW in 2006 to 563 MW in 2018.
• The modeling incorporates climate sub-scenarios that account for future changes including a temperature increase of +3°C, precipitation changes of +/-10%, and a dew point temperature increase of +1°C.

APA

Johnson, O., Karlberg, L., Ogeya, M., Ogol, T., Flores, F., & Binnington, T. (2018). Narratives, data and assumptions used to model development scenarios and climate sub-scenarios for Rwanda. Stockholm Environment Institute. https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/sei-report-2018-rwanda-nexus-scenarios.pdf

Chicago

Johnson, Oliver, Louise Karlberg, Mbeo Ogeya, Tom Ogol, Francisco Flores, and Taylor Binnington. Narratives, data and assumptions used to model development scenarios and climate sub-scenarios for Rwanda. Stockholm Environment Institute, 2018. https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/sei-report-2018-rwanda-nexus-scenarios.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Johnson |first1=Oliver |last2=Karlberg |first2=Louise |last3=Ogeya |first3=Mbeo |last4=Ogol |first4=Tom |last5=Flores |first5=Francisco |last6=Binnington |first6=Taylor |title=Narratives, data and assumptions used to model development scenarios and climate sub-scenarios for Rwanda |publisher=Stockholm Environment Institute |date=June 2018 |url=https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/sei-report-2018-rwanda-nexus-scenarios.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{johnson2018narratives, author = {Johnson, Oliver and Karlberg, Louise and Ogeya, Mbeo and Ogol, Tom and Flores, Francisco and Binnington, Taylor}, title = {{Narratives, data and assumptions used to model development scenarios and climate sub-scenarios for Rwanda}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2018}, month = jun, url = {https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/sei-report-2018-rwanda-nexus-scenarios.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }