Narratives, data and assumptions used to model development scenarios and climate sub-scenarios for Rwanda

The document outlines three development pathways for Rwanda—reference, pessimistic, and optimistic—to explore the synergies and trade-offs between agricultural transformation and energy transition. It provides the specific quantitative inputs and qualitative assumptions used in the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) and Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) models, including GDP growth, population trends, land-use changes, and cookstove penetration rates.

• The report establishes three primary development pathways for Rwanda through 2050: a reference scenario based on historical trends, a pessimistic scenario characterized by weak implementation of national plans and slow modernization, and an optimistic scenario where national goals for agricultural and energy modernization are achieved sustainably.
• In the optimistic scenario, Rwanda is assumed to modernize 40% of its farmland by 2050 through increased mechanization, fertilizer use, and irrigation, while expanding agricultural lands into marshlands by 100,000 ha.
• The optimistic energy scenario assumes universal electricity access by 2030 and a significant shift in cooking fuels, with LPG reaching 50% share in urban areas and 20% in rural areas by 2050, supported by a cookstoves replacement programme and a 30% increase in forest cover.
• The pessimistic scenario envisions a future where biomass remains the primary cooking fuel due to the continued use of traditional cookstoves by a growing population, leading to increased pressure on forests and marshlands and the degradation of limnic ecosystems.
• The modeling incorporates climate sub-scenarios that assume future changes including a temperature increase of +3°C, precipitation variations of +/-10%, and a dew point temperature increase of +1°C.
• To ensure sustainable biomass withdrawal in the optimistic scenario, the model assumes that 20% of net primary productivity in forest biomass and 20% of crop residues are left in the ecosystems.

APA

Johnson, O., Karlberg, L., Ogeya, M., Ogol, T., Flores, F., & Binnington, T. (2018). Narratives, data and assumptions used to model development scenarios and climate sub-scenarios for Rwanda. Stockholm Environment Institute. https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/sei-report-2018-rwanda-nexus-scenarios.pdf

Chicago

Johnson, Oliver, Louise Karlberg, Mbeo Ogeya, Tom Ogol, Francisco Flores, and Taylor Binnington. Narratives, data and assumptions used to model development scenarios and climate sub-scenarios for Rwanda. Stockholm Environment Institute, 2018. https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/sei-report-2018-rwanda-nexus-scenarios.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Johnson |first1=Oliver |last2=Karlberg |first2=Louise |last3=Ogeya |first3=Mbeo |last4=Ogol |first4=Tom |last5=Flores |first5=Francisco |last6=Binnington |first6=Taylor |title=Narratives, data and assumptions used to model development scenarios and climate sub-scenarios for Rwanda |publisher=Stockholm Environment Institute |date=June 2018 |url=https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/sei-report-2018-rwanda-nexus-scenarios.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{johnson2018narratives, author = {Johnson, Oliver and Karlberg, Louise and Ogeya, Mbeo and Ogol, Tom and Flores, Francisco and Binnington, Taylor}, title = {{Narratives, data and assumptions used to model development scenarios and climate sub-scenarios for Rwanda}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2018}, month = jun, url = {https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/sei-report-2018-rwanda-nexus-scenarios.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }