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The report applies a 'nexus toolkit' to analyze the interactions between agricultural transformation, energy transition, and natural resource use in Rwanda, specifically within the Akagera Basin. Using policy coherence mapping and scenario modelling (Reference, Pessimistic, and Optimistic) up to 2050, the study finds that high population growth and climate change create severe pressure on water and biomass. Key findings indicate that ambitious national plans for irrigation and hydropower may be physically impossible to meet due to water scarcity, and that the transition to peat for electricity will increase GHG emissions despite reductions in cooking-fuel emissions. At the district level, the report identifies critical needs for improved water management, off-grid energy solutions, and a shift away from urban charcoal demand to combat deforestation.

The document examines the tension between Rwanda's national development goals—such as becoming a middle-income country by 2020—and the resulting pressure on natural resources at the district level. Focusing on Rutsiro, Bugesera, and Kirehe, it identifies widespread scarcity of woody biomass and clean water, driven by urban demand for charcoal and traditional farming practices. It argues that while national strategies like the Green Growth and Climate Resilience Strategy exist, there is a gap in translating these into local action, necessitating tailored district-level solutions and national policy incentives to shift urban energy demand away from charcoal.