AFRICA MANUFACTURING FORECAST: THEMATIC FUTURES

This research paper presents a 'Manufacturing scenario' for Africa looking ahead to 2043, modelling the potential economic and social impacts of a concerted push toward industrialisation compared to a 'Current Path' (business-as-usual) baseline. The scenario assumes a series of interventions starting in 2027 focused on increased investment, technological advancement, regulatory reform, and higher labour participation.

• The Manufacturing scenario projects a significant increase in industrial investment compared to the Current Path. While the Current Path sees Africa's ratio of manufacturing investment to GDP rise from 3.5 (US$93 billion) in 2023 to 4.4 (US$281 billion) by 2043, the Manufacturing scenario would result in a ratio 1.6 points (approximately US$120 billion) higher by 2043.
• To drive productivity and technological adoption, the scenario envisions increased Research and Development (R&D) spending. In the Current Path, R&D expenditure as a share of GDP is expected to rise from 0.41% in 2023 to 0.46% in 2043; the Manufacturing scenario adds approximately 0.043 percentage points more to this share by 2043.
• The scenario anticipates a reduction in the informal economy through policies that encourage business formalisation, such as tax incentives and simpler registration. By 2043, the Manufacturing scenario predicts the informal sector's contribution to GDP and employment will be 1.8 and 8.9 percentage points lower, respectively, than under the Current Path.
• Industrialisation combined with inclusive policies is projected to significantly narrow the gender gap in labour force participation. The gap is expected to drop from 15.6 percentage points in 2023 to about 8.9 points by 2043, representing a 2.1-point improvement over the 10.7-point gap projected in the Current Path. Overall, the labour force participation rate in the Manufacturing scenario would be 2.4 percentage points higher by 2043 than the Current Path's 66%.
• The scenario relies on specific regulatory and trade reforms, including the alignment of trade policies with the AfCFTA to reduce tariffs on intermediate inputs and streamline border bureaucracy. Other proposed measures include maintaining stable exchange rates and providing targeted subsidies for electronics assembly, textiles, and agro-processing.

APA

Cilliers, J., & Ngundu, M. (2026). AFRICA MANUFACTURING FORECAST: THEMATIC FUTURES. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=07-manufacturing&topic=07-manufacturing-scenario

Chicago

Cilliers, Jakkie, and Marvellous Ngundu. AFRICA MANUFACTURING FORECAST: THEMATIC FUTURES. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=07-manufacturing&topic=07-manufacturing-scenario.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cilliers |first1=Jakkie |last2=Ngundu |first2=Marvellous |title=AFRICA MANUFACTURING FORECAST: THEMATIC FUTURES |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=29 March 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=07-manufacturing&topic=07-manufacturing-scenario |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cilliers2026africa, author = {Cilliers, Jakkie and Ngundu, Marvellous}, title = {{AFRICA MANUFACTURING FORECAST: THEMATIC FUTURES}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = mar, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=07-manufacturing&topic=07-manufacturing-scenario}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }