AFRICA MANUFACTURING FORECAST: THEMATIC FUTURES

The document describes a hypothetical 'Manufacturing scenario' for Africa extending to 2043, which assumes a series of interventions starting in 2027 to accelerate industrialisation. Key levers include increasing manufacturing investment to GDP by 1.6 points (US$120 billion) above the current path, boosting R&D expenditure by 0.043 percentage points, and implementing regulatory reforms aligned with the AfCFTA. The scenario predicts significant social gains, including a reduction in the informal sector's contribution to GDP by 1.8 percentage points and a narrowing of the labour force participation gender gap to 8.9 points by 2043.

• The Manufacturing scenario projects that by 2043, Africa's ratio of manufacturing investment to GDP will be 1.6 percentage points, or approximately US$120 billion, higher than the projected 'Current Path'.
• To drive technological advancement and productivity, the scenario envisions an increase in R&D expenditure as a share of GDP, adding roughly 0.043 percentage points by 2043 compared to the Current Path, supported by vocational training and foreign partnerships.
• The scenario assumes regulatory reforms and policies to support industrial growth, including the use of targeted subsidies for electronics assembly, textiles, and agro-processing, as well as trade policies aligned with the AfCFTA to reduce tariffs on intermediate inputs.
• By 2043, the Manufacturing scenario expects the informal sector's contribution to GDP and employment to be 1.8 and 8.9 percentage points lower, respectively, than the Current Path, driven by policies encouraging business formalisation.
• The scenario predicts a significant increase in labour force participation, particularly for women, narrowing the gender gap to 8.9 points by 2043—a 2.1-point improvement over the Current Path's expected 10.7-point gap.

APA

Cilliers, J., & Ngundu, M. (2026). AFRICA MANUFACTURING FORECAST: THEMATIC FUTURES. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=07-manufacturing&topic=07-manufacturing-scenario

Chicago

Cilliers, Jakkie, and Marvellous Ngundu. AFRICA MANUFACTURING FORECAST: THEMATIC FUTURES. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=07-manufacturing&topic=07-manufacturing-scenario.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cilliers |first1=Jakkie |last2=Ngundu |first2=Marvellous |title=AFRICA MANUFACTURING FORECAST: THEMATIC FUTURES |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=29 March 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=07-manufacturing&topic=07-manufacturing-scenario |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cilliers2026africa, author = {Cilliers, Jakkie and Ngundu, Marvellous}, title = {{AFRICA MANUFACTURING FORECAST: THEMATIC FUTURES}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = mar, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=07-manufacturing&topic=07-manufacturing-scenario}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }