Development prospects for the Horn of Africa countries to 2040

This report analyses the development trajectories of the Horn of Africa (Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Somalia, Sudan, and South Sudan) up to 2040. It identifies systemic barriers including governance failure, conflict, and climate-induced food insecurity, while modelling an 'Integrated Development Push' scenario to demonstrate how coordinated reforms in governance, agriculture, and human capital could significantly reduce extreme poverty and boost regional GDP.

• The Horn of Africa is characterized by severe governance and security challenges, with Somalia, South Sudan, and Eritrea identified as having the worst governance in Africa. Somalia is noted as one of the most protracted cases of statelessness since 1991, and South Sudan's governance institutions are described as dysfunctional, with a political space dominated by the military.
• The region faces a critical demographic challenge with an extraordinarily young population, which currently constrains economic growth due to a high ratio of child dependants to working-age adults. Only Djibouti has reached the ratio of 1.7 working-age people per dependant necessary to potentially experience a 'demographic dividend'.
• Agriculture and pastoralism are the primary livelihoods, but the region is highly food insecure due to recurrent droughts and conflict. Import dependence on crops is forecast to increase from 10.6% to roughly 25.8% by 2040. Djibouti is particularly vulnerable, importing up to 90% of its foodstuffs.
• Economic activity is heavily concentrated in Ethiopia and Sudan, which together account for 89% of the region's total GDP. Most countries are classified as low-income by the World Bank, with the exception of Djibouti, which is lower-middle-income.
• The region is a site of intense geostrategic competition, leading to a proliferation of foreign military bases, particularly in Djibouti, which hosts bases from the US, China, France, Italy, Japan, and Spain. Gulf countries (Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, and Qatar) and Turkey are key trade and aid partners, though their rivalries sometimes fuel instability, specifically in Somalia.
• Extreme poverty is widespread and deep-rooted; on the current trajectory, no countries in the Horn are on track to eliminate extreme poverty by 2030. South Sudan has the highest poverty rate at 78%, while Ethiopia has the largest absolute number of poor people.
• Infrastructure is severely lacking, with only 45% of the population having access to electricity in 2019. South Sudan and Somalia have the lowest per capita electricity usage in Africa. Paved road networks are also minimal, ranging from 47% in Djibouti to just 0.3% in South Sudan.
• The 'Integrated Development Push' scenario suggests that coordinated interventions in governance, agriculture, and human capital could significantly improve outcomes by 2040. This scenario projects a regional GDP US$212.9 billion larger than the Current Path and a reduction in the average regional poverty rate to 6.5% (compared to 12.4% on the Current Path).

APA

Yeboua, K., & Cilliers, J. (2023). Development prospects for the Horn of Africa countries to 2040. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/region/horn-of-africa/

Chicago

Yeboua, Kouassi, and Jakkie Cilliers. Development prospects for the Horn of Africa countries to 2040. Institute for Security Studies, 2023. https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/region/horn-of-africa/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Yeboua |first1=Kouassi |last2=Cilliers |first2=Jakkie |title=Development prospects for the Horn of Africa countries to 2040 |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=7 June 2023 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/region/horn-of-africa/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{yeboua2023development, author = {Yeboua, Kouassi and Cilliers, Jakkie}, title = {{Development prospects for the Horn of Africa countries to 2040}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2023}, month = jun, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/region/horn-of-africa/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }