Development prospects for the Horn of Africa countries to 2040

The Horn of Africa faces severe challenges including governance failure, chronic food insecurity, and high poverty rates, with no countries on track to eliminate extreme poverty by 2030. The region is characterized by a very young population and high dependence on rain-fed agriculture, which is increasingly threatened by climate change and conflict. While Ethiopia and Sudan dominate the regional GDP, most nations suffer from poor infrastructure and dysfunctional health and education systems. The report models an 'Integrated Development Push' scenario involving improvements in governance, agriculture, and human capital, which could significantly increase regional GDP and reduce extreme poverty by 2040.

• No countries in the Horn of Africa are currently on track to meet the Sustainable Development Goal of eliminating extreme poverty by 2030.
• The region's economy is highly concentrated, with Sudan and Ethiopia accounting for 89% of the total GDP of the Horn.
• The Horn of Africa has an exceptionally young demographic, with Somalia having the second highest fertility rate globally (6.1 children per woman), which hinders the realization of a demographic dividend.
• Agriculture is the primary livelihood for the majority, but the region is highly food insecure due to recurrent droughts and conflict; import dependence on crops is projected to rise from 10.6% to 25.8% by 2040.
• Climate change is increasing the risk of conflict in the region, with projected increases of up to 30% in Sudan and South Sudan, and up to 50% in Somalia by 2030 due to rising temperatures.
• Infrastructure is severely lacking, with electricity access in 2019 at only 45% for the region, and South Sudan recording the lowest access rate at 21.3%.
• The region is a major source of global displacement, hosting approximately 8.5 million forcibly displaced people, including 6 million internally displaced persons and 2.5 million refugees.
• External finance is dominated by aid and investment from Gulf countries, which provided US$13 billion in investments and US$6.6 billion in official development assistance between 2000 and 2017.
• The 'Integrated Development Push' scenario, combining governance, agriculture, and human capital improvements, could increase regional GDP by US$212.9 billion and reduce the average poverty rate to 6.5% by 2040.

APA

Yeboua, K., & Cilliers, J. (2023). Development prospects for the Horn of Africa countries to 2040. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/region/horn-of-africa/

Chicago

Yeboua, Kouassi, and Jakkie Cilliers. Development prospects for the Horn of Africa countries to 2040. Institute for Security Studies, 2023. https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/region/horn-of-africa/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Yeboua |first1=Kouassi |last2=Cilliers |first2=Jakkie |title=Development prospects for the Horn of Africa countries to 2040 |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=7 June 2023 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/region/horn-of-africa/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{yeboua2023development, author = {Yeboua, Kouassi and Cilliers, Jakkie}, title = {{Development prospects for the Horn of Africa countries to 2040}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2023}, month = jun, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/region/horn-of-africa/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }