Towards a Viable Africa Energy Policy

The paper argues for a rapid increase in non-fossil energy production to mitigate climate vulnerability in Africa. It highlights the potential for renewables to reach 750 GW by 2030 and the role of nuclear and hydropower, while noting that fossil fuel sectors remain primary drivers of foreign direct investment. The authors model an 'Energy Policy scenario' for 2050 that increases production across solar, wind, nuclear, and hydro, potentially reducing the number of Africans without electricity by 184 million.

• Global fossil fuel production plans are inconsistent with climate targets; the UNEP 2023 Production Gap Report indicates governments plan to produce 110% more fossil fuels by 2030 than is compatible with a 1.5 °C warming limit.
• Africa has significant potential for renewable growth, with IRENA estimating a possible capacity of 750 GW by 2030, a fourfold increase from the current 180 GW, although renewables only accounted for 1.7% of total energy production in 2023.
• There is a tension between decarbonization and economic investment, as the resource extraction sector—including mining, oil, and gas—attracts the majority of Africa's foreign direct investment (FDI).
• Nuclear energy and hydropower are identified as key components of the energy future, though hydropower is becoming less reliable due to climate-induced rainfall variability, as evidenced by electricity rationing in Zambia following droughts at the Kariba Dam.
• Africa's energy efficiency is significantly lower than the global average, requiring 70% more energy per unit of GDP; potential savings include a 30% reduction in electricity demand through efficiency measures by 2030 and up to 10% total energy savings from industrial efficiencies in steel, chemicals, and cement.
• The modeled 'Energy Policy scenario' for 2050 suggests that increasing production in solar (42%), wind (36%), nuclear (19%), and hydro (29%) could reduce the number of Africans without electricity access by 184 million.

APA

Cilliers, J., & le Roux, A. (2026). Towards a Viable Africa Energy Policy. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=15-energy&topic=03-policy

Chicago

Cilliers, Jakkie, and Alize le Roux. Towards a Viable Africa Energy Policy. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=15-energy&topic=03-policy.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cilliers |first1=Jakkie |last2=le Roux |first2=Alize |title=Towards a Viable Africa Energy Policy |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=4 April 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=15-energy&topic=03-policy |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cilliers2026towards, author = {Cilliers, Jakkie and le Roux, Alize}, title = {{Towards a Viable Africa Energy Policy}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = apr, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=15-energy&topic=03-policy}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }