Towards a Viable Africa Energy Policy

This research paper by the Institute for Security Studies outlines a proposed 'Energy Policy scenario' for Africa to transition toward a low-emissions energy future. It analyzes the gap between current fossil fuel production and climate targets, the potential for scaling renewables and nuclear energy, and the role of energy efficiency in reducing total demand.

• Global fossil fuel production is currently on a trajectory that exceeds levels compatible with limiting global warming. According to the UNEP 2023 Production Gap Report, planned production for 2030 is approximately 110% higher than what is consistent with a 1.5 °C target, and projected emissions are 69% higher than what is compatible with a 2 °C limit.
• Africa has a significant opportunity to expand renewable energy, with IRENA estimating a potential capacity of 750 GW by 2030, which would be a fourfold increase from the current 180 GW. While some countries like Kenya and Cabo Verde aim for 100% renewable energy, others such as Mozambique, Rwanda, and Eswatini target approximately 60%.
• Nuclear energy and hydropower are identified as critical components of Africa's future energy mix. Nuclear energy gained new momentum following COP28, where signatory countries included it to aid rapid decarbonisation. However, hydropower reliability is decreasing due to climate-driven rainfall variability, as evidenced by Zambia's 2024 national disaster declaration following a drought that impacted the Kariba Dam.
• Africa's energy efficiency is significantly lower than the global average, requiring 70% more energy per unit of GDP. Potential reductions in total energy demand by 2030 include a 5-10% reduction through vehicle and transport efficiencies and up to a 10% saving through industrial efficiencies in chemicals, steel, and cement.
• The proposed 'Energy Policy scenario' models a low-emissions pathway for 2050 that increases energy production by 12.5% compared to the 'Current Path'. This scenario includes specific increases in solar (42%), wind (36%), hydro (29%), geothermal (25%), and nuclear (19%) production, while reducing coal production by 12% and oil by 5%.
• Implementing the Energy Policy scenario would significantly improve energy access, reducing the number of Africans without electricity by 184 million, with 112 million in rural areas and 69 million in urban areas.
• There is a tension between climate goals and economic needs, as the resource extraction sector (oil, gas, and mining) attracts the majority of Africa's foreign direct investment (FDI). Pressure from foreign investors to avoid these sectors could negatively impact the continent's access to necessary capital.

APA

Cilliers, J., & le Roux, A. (2026). Towards a Viable Africa Energy Policy. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=15-energy&topic=03-policy

Chicago

Cilliers, Jakkie, and Alize le Roux. Towards a Viable Africa Energy Policy. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=15-energy&topic=03-policy.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cilliers |first1=Jakkie |last2=le Roux |first2=Alize |title=Towards a Viable Africa Energy Policy |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=4 April 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=15-energy&topic=03-policy |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cilliers2026towards, author = {Cilliers, Jakkie and le Roux, Alize}, title = {{Towards a Viable Africa Energy Policy}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = apr, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=15-energy&topic=03-policy}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }