Low carbon energy transition in Estonia

This technical report by the Stockholm Environment Institute Tallinn Centre, commissioned by Nordic Energy Research, analyzes the potential for Estonia to transition to a carbon-neutral power sector by 2050. It evaluates the current state of Estonia's energy system—which is heavily dependent on oil shale—and uses three quantitative models (LEAP, Balmorel, and EMPS) to simulate various low-carbon scenarios, including the impacts of electrification in transport and heating and the necessary developments in transmission grids and international interconnections.

• Estonia's energy sector is historically dominated by oil shale, which accounted for 87% (10,829 GWh) of total electricity generation in 2014. While the share of renewables in final energy consumption reached 25% in 2014, the country remains among the top three greenhouse gas emitters in Europe per capita and per GDP.
• Modelling results across four scenarios (BAU, Carbon Neutral, RES, and RES+) indicate a fast growth in wind energy based electricity generation. In the RES+ scenario, which includes increased demand from electric vehicles and heat pumps, the highest generating capacities for wind, biomass, and solar are achieved. Oil shale based generation is expected to be phased out starting from 2040, with wood and wind replacing the demand.

APA

Kuhi-Thalfeldt, R., & Lahtvee, V. (2016). Low carbon energy transition in Estonia. Stockholm Environment Institute. https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/norstrat-report.pdf

Chicago

Kuhi-Thalfeldt, Reeli, and Valdur Lahtvee. Low carbon energy transition in Estonia. Stockholm Environment Institute, 2016. https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/norstrat-report.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Kuhi-Thalfeldt |first1=Reeli |last2=Lahtvee |first2=Valdur |title=Low carbon energy transition in Estonia |publisher=Stockholm Environment Institute |date=March 2016 |url=https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/norstrat-report.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{kuhithalfeldt2016low, author = {Kuhi-Thalfeldt, Reeli and Lahtvee, Valdur}, title = {{Low carbon energy transition in Estonia}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2016}, month = mar, url = {https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/norstrat-report.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }