Manufacturing

The report examines Africa's history of 'premature deindustrialisation' and proposes a strategic shift toward manufacturing to drive structural transformation. It models a scenario where increased investment in R&D, infrastructure, and labour participation leads to significant GDP growth, the creation of millions of jobs, and a substantial reduction in extreme poverty by 2043.

• Africa has experienced a trend of premature deindustrialisation, where economies transitioned from agriculture directly into low-value services, bypassing the manufacturing stage typical of successful industrialised nations.
• The manufacturing sector's contribution to Africa's GDP has remained stagnant, staying under 13% since 2020, with only five countries—Nigeria, Egypt, South Africa, Algeria, and Morocco—having a manufacturing value added exceeding US$10 billion in 2023.
• Critical barriers to industrial growth include severe infrastructure deficits, particularly in power and transport; for example, 90% of Nigerian manufacturers rely on diesel generators due to grid instability, costing the sector approximately US$27 billion annually.
• The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) is identified as a primary catalyst for industrialisation by creating economies of scale and regional value chains, with the potential to raise Africa's GDP by US$592 billion above the current path by 2043.
• A modeled 'Manufacturing scenario' predicts that by 2043, manufacturing's share of GDP would increase by 1.8 percentage points over the business-as-usual path, adding US$168.2 billion to the sector and US$282.8 billion to the overall economy.
• The proposed industrial push is estimated to generate 34.6 million additional jobs by 2043, comprising 3.7 million skilled and 30.9 million unskilled positions, while lifting 19.1 million more people out of extreme poverty than the current path.
• The Manufacturing scenario would improve fiscal stability by increasing government revenue by US$81.6 billion by 2043 and raising GDP per capita by US$190 relative to current forecasts.
• Chinese investment is significantly shaping Africa's industrial landscape, with nearly one-third of the 10,000+ Chinese companies in Africa engaged in manufacturing, accounting for over 12% of the continent's industrial output.
• New industrial frontiers are emerging in electric vehicles (EVs) and pharmaceuticals, exemplified by the DRC-Zambia Battery Valley initiative and vaccine production lines in Senegal, South Africa, Rwanda, Ghana, and Egypt.

APA

Cilliers, J., & Ngundu, M. (2026). Manufacturing. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/07-manufacturing/

Chicago

Cilliers, Jakkie, and Marvellous Ngundu. Manufacturing. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/07-manufacturing/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cilliers |first1=Jakkie |last2=Ngundu |first2=Marvellous |title=Manufacturing |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=29 March 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/07-manufacturing/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cilliers2026manufacturing, author = {Cilliers, Jakkie and Ngundu, Marvellous}, title = {{Manufacturing}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = mar, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/07-manufacturing/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }