Search Climate Insights Directory

Kenya faces a significant economic burden from fossil fuel imports and subsidies despite having a nearly 90 percent renewable electricity grid. The report argues that transitioning away from fossil fuels is an economic imperative, as revenues from potential oil and coal projects are insufficient to address the national debt. It proposes a three-step pathway: immediate integration of phase-out plans, short-to-medium term divestment and investment in high-growth sectors (renewable energy, e-mobility, climate-smart agriculture, green manufacturing, and the digital economy), and long-term decarbonisation of hard-to-abate sectors. The document also highlights the risks of stranded assets and 'debt trap diplomacy' and recommends joining a Fossil Fuel Treaty to unlock international finance and technical support.

The Green Climate Fund (GCF) and KCB Bank Kenya Limited propose a 10-year, USD 96.9 million blended finance programme to increase climate resilience and reduce GHG emissions in Kenya. The programme targets 'hardest-to-reach' MSMEs and farmers, particularly in Arid and Semi-Arid Lands (ASALs), through a tiered vulnerability cluster framework. Key interventions include a USD 65 million CST facility consisting of concessional loans and a USD 20.3 million GCF guarantee to de-risk lending. The project aims to reduce 3.93 million tCO2e and reach 935,692 beneficiaries, with a strong focus on women-led enterprises and the integration of digital lending and climate risk assessment tools.

The report analyzes climate finance in Kenya's arid and semi-arid lands (ASAL), specifically in Turkana, Elgeyo Marakwet, Narok, and West Pokot. It finds a significant misalignment in funding, with over 60% of climate finance directed toward mitigation despite the high vulnerability of these regions to climate-induced droughts and floods. The study identifies severe funding gaps, where actual budgetary allocations for climate action in some counties are as low as 2% to 9% of estimated needs. Key barriers include weak institutional capacity, fragmented governance, and limited access to formal financial markets. The report recommends strengthening county-level technical skills, promoting innovative financing like green bonds and blended finance, and mainstreaming climate priorities into local budgeting to improve adaptation outcomes.

The document examines the evolution of humanitarian communication, focusing on the tension between emotional storytelling and technical data. It analyzes the impact of generative AI on the authenticity of testimonies and images, the risks of 'infoglut' and fake news in conflict zones, and the intersectional vulnerabilities of women and LGBTQIA+ individuals facing climate change, specifically in Kenya.

Kenya faces significant cooling gaps, with millions of people in hot regions at risk due to poverty and lack of electricity. While the country has a high share of renewable energy, the growth of refrigeration and air-conditioning (RAC) threatens to increase emissions, necessitating a transition to sustainable cooling to align with Net Zero 2050 goals.

This research paper by the Stockholm Environment Institute analyzes land use and land cover (LULC) data from 2001, 2011, and 2021 to project outcomes for 2050 in four arid and semiarid counties in Kenya. The study evaluates three scenarios—achieving 10% forest cover, converting forests to croplands, and restoring degraded forests—to guide sustainable land management and meet Kenyan government climate commitments.

The study analyzes LULC trends in Turkana, Narok, West Pokot, and Elgeyo Marakwet counties, finding that achieving a 10% forest cover target yields the most favorable environmental and agricultural outcomes by 2050. It warns against the 'Shamba system' of forest-to-cropland conversion and highlights the threat of invasive species, particularly Prosopis juliflora, in arid regions.

The report examines Kenya's climate risk insurance landscape, highlighting the effectiveness of government-subsidised programmes like KLIP and KAIP, while identifying significant barriers such as inadequate weather data, low insurance penetration (2.4%), and a substantial adaptation funding gap of approximately KES 853bn annually. It argues for a multi-level risk transfer approach and improved data infrastructure to enhance the commercial viability and impact of climate insurance.

The report examines the vulnerability of agro-pastoral value chains in Kenya's arid and semi-arid lands (ASAL) to climate change, specifically focusing on temperature increases and rainfall variability. Using the VC-ARID methodology, it analyzes eight value chains: pasture/fodder, livestock, bee, gum and resin, aloe, poultry, mango, and beadwork. Findings indicate that rising temperatures and water stress generally reduce productivity for livestock, poultry, and fodder, while potentially increasing yields for gum and resin. The report emphasizes the need for transformative adaptation, including the formalization of cooperatives, improved market infrastructure, and the integration of gender-inclusive policies to enhance community resilience.

The LUCI tool provides a five-step analytical framework to identify unintended consequences of development interventions by mapping the overlap between identity groups and impact groups. It emphasizes 'horizontal inequalities'—group-based disparities related to gender, ethnicity, or class—and how these can be exacerbated by poorly planned projects, leading to 'maladaptation' or increased conflict potential. The guide demonstrates the tool's application through a case study of solar hybrid mini-grid projects in Turkana County, Kenya, illustrating how access to electricity can create differential benefits and losses across various social and economic groups.

The report examines 11 renewable energy projects in the Kakuma Refugee Camp, finding that while they improve energy access, they rarely account for the potential to provoke or exacerbate conflict. The authors argue for a programmatic approach to conflict sensitivity that includes local stakeholder engagement to mitigate tensions over energy access.

In 2018, Kenya received KES 243.3 billion (USD 2.4 billion) in climate finance, which is approximately half of the annual funding required to meet its NDC targets. The report highlights a significant imbalance in fund allocation, with 79.8% of finance directed toward mitigation—primarily large-scale renewable energy—while adaptation received only 11.7%. Public finance accounted for 59.4% of the total, and private finance 40.7%. Major investment gaps exist in the water, forestry, and transport sectors. The document recommends scaling up adaptation finance, implementing private sector incentives for non-energy sectors, and operationalizing 'Segment 8' in the Integrated Financial Management and Information System (IFMIS) to improve climate expenditure tracking.

This research paper explores the political economy of climate adaptation projects by combining the 4E typology (enclosure, exclusion, encroachment, and entrenchment) with system mapping. Using the solar electricity system in Turkana, Kenya as a case study, the author argues that integrating these tools helps connect theoretical change processes to empirical reality and allows for the construction of causal pathways from projects to impacts.

The document proposes integrating Sovacool et al.'s "4E" typology (enclosure, exclusion, encroachment, and entrenchment) with the Mechanisms of Social Change (MOSC) mapping approach to identify causal pathways in adaptation projects. By mapping the solar electricity system in Turkana, Kenya, the authors demonstrate how specific actions—such as consultation, licensing, and facility design—create sequential pathways that determine how benefits and losses are distributed among community members.

The document details public consultations in Garissa County regarding the re-alignment of the Lokichar to Lamu Crude Oil Pipeline (LLCOP) to avoid Kenya Defence Force (KDF) barracks at Modikare. Stakeholders raised concerns over land ownership, compensation for community-owned land without title deeds, the impact on grazing lands and acacia trees, and the environmental effects of pipeline heating and generator emissions. The project team clarified that the pipeline is a closed system, will be buried to allow grazing, and that land acquisition is a separate process managed by the National Land Commission (NLC).

The document details a stakeholder meeting in Garissa County regarding the re-routing of the Lokichar to Lamu Crude Oil Pipeline (LLCOP) to avoid Kenya Defence Force barracks. Key discussions centered on the technical specifications of pipeline stations, the use of fuel generators and their emissions, land acquisition processes for pastoralist communities, and the environmental impact of subterranean heating on plant germination.

The document outlines the ESIA process and technical specifications for the Lokichar-Lamu Crude Oil Pipeline, a joint venture between the Kenyan government and a consortium including Tullow Oil, Africa Oil Turnana, and Total Oil. The pipeline is designed to transport heavy crude oil from the Lokichar basin to a marine export terminal at the Port of Lamu. It details the stakeholder engagement process, the construction methodology involving trenching and backfilling, and key technical parameters such as a length of approximately 820 km and the inclusion of 16 intermediary stations.

The report evaluates Kenya's development prospects to 2040, highlighting a contrast between strong human capital (health and education) and a significant deficit in core infrastructure (water and sanitation). While Kenya is a regional leader in ICT and renewable energy, it faces challenges from a large youth bulge, corruption, and climate-driven food insecurity. The report presents three scenarios: 'Stuck in Traffic' (current path), 'Tuko Kazi' (positive interventions), and 'Bila Hopes' (stagnation and instability).

The report evaluates Kenya's development landscape, noting strengths in health and education but significant deficits in basic infrastructure and governance. It uses the International Futures (IFs) model to project outcomes through 2040, arguing that while Kenya is unlikely to reach upper-middle-income status by 2030, targeted interventions in agriculture, family planning, and corruption could meaningfully improve livelihoods.

The report evaluates how to communicate the link between anthropogenic climate change and extreme weather events, testing various phrasings for probability, frequency, intensity, and uncertainty. Findings indicate that while high-level decision makers often prefer technical percentages and 'probability' terms, the general public finds these confusing, preferring simpler terms like 'worse' or 'more often'. The study highlights significant translation challenges in Swahili and Hindi and recommends that attribution information be downscaled to high spatial resolutions and co-developed with local communication experts and trusted sources, such as national meteorological agencies.