Land cover scenarios in four Kenyan arid and semi-arid regions by 2050

The study analyzes LULC trends in Turkana, Narok, West Pokot, and Elgeyo Marakwet counties, finding that achieving a 10% forest cover target yields the most favorable environmental and agricultural outcomes by 2050. It warns against the 'Shamba system' of forest-to-cropland conversion and highlights the threat of invasive species, particularly Prosopis juliflora, in arid regions.

• Adopting interventions to achieve a 10% forest cover (Scenario 1) is projected to yield the most favorable environmental outcomes by 2050, increasing forest cover and supporting cropland expansion across all four studied counties.
• The 'Shamba system', which allows farmers to cultivate within forests, is projected to significantly increase deforestation and reduce forest cover, particularly in Narok County where cropland could triple from 4% to 11% by 2050.
• In Turkana County, 15% of the land is bare or barren, making it highly susceptible to soil erosion; under a business-as-usual scenario, this is projected to increase to 19% by 2050.
• Forest cover in Turkana County is extremely low, occupying less than 1% of total LULC, with nearly half of existing trees located within 1 km of river channels, suggesting a high prevalence of invasive species.
• Narok County has seen a slowing rate of deforestation between 2011 and 2021, attributed to government evictions from the Mau Forest to establish boundaries, though forest cover is still projected to decline by 2050.
• Elgeyo Marakwet County currently has the highest forest proportion of the four counties at 12%, but this is projected to decline to 7% by 2050 if current trends persist.
• West Pokot County is dominated by shrublands (77%) and is less vulnerable to soil erosion than Turkana due to having less than 1% bare land, though its forests are projected to decline to 1.1% by 2050.
• The study identifies a risk of wetland degradation in Turkana and West Pokot counties due to the conversion of wetlands to croplands, driven by the proximity of cultivation to water bodies.
• Invasive woody species, specifically Prosopis juliflora, are identified as a major threat in ASAL regions, as they can deplete groundwater and prevent crop growth where established.

APA

Adoyo, B., Kehbila, A., Lutta, A., Opiyo, R. O., Onyango, S. A., Mungo, C., & Osano, P. (2024). Land cover scenarios in four Kenyan arid and semi-arid regions by 2050. Stockholm Environment Institute. https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/land-cover-kenyan-arid-2050-sei2024-029.pdf

Chicago

Adoyo, Beatrice, Anderson Kehbila, Alphayo Lutta, Romanus Otieno Opiyo, Sharon Anyango Onyango, Carol Mungo, and Philip Osano. Land cover scenarios in four Kenyan arid and semi-arid regions by 2050. Stockholm Environment Institute, 2024. https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/land-cover-kenyan-arid-2050-sei2024-029.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Adoyo |first1=Beatrice |last2=Kehbila |first2=Anderson |last3=Lutta |first3=Alphayo |last4=Opiyo |first4=Romanus Otieno |last5=Onyango |first5=Sharon Anyango |last6=Mungo |first6=Carol |last7=Osano |first7=Philip |title=Land cover scenarios in four Kenyan arid and semi-arid regions by 2050 |publisher=Stockholm Environment Institute |date=July 2024 |url=https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/land-cover-kenyan-arid-2050-sei2024-029.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{adoyo2024land, author = {Adoyo, Beatrice and Kehbila, Anderson and Lutta, Alphayo and Opiyo, Romanus Otieno and Onyango, Sharon Anyango and Mungo, Carol and Osano, Philip}, title = {{Land cover scenarios in four Kenyan arid and semi-arid regions by 2050}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2024}, month = jul, url = {https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/land-cover-kenyan-arid-2050-sei2024-029.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }