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20 results
Growth Without Guardrails
The report criticizes the FAO for promoting a target of 75% growth in 'sustainable aquaculture' by 2040 without distinguishing between low-impact and feed-intensive production systems. Modelling suggests that if current trends continue, demand for wild fish could rise by 85–88%, potentially diverting nutritious fish from vulnerable populations in Africa and Asia. The document highlights a 'policy drift' in the GSA, where earlier safeguards regarding nutrition and competition between aquafeed and human food were removed, allegedly influenced by the aquaculture industry and Norway. It concludes that FAO should prioritize non-fed, low-trophic aquatic foods and eliminate edible wild fish from aquafeeds to align with its founding mandate.
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Document type: Report
India’s Clean Cooking Shift
The report argues that India's reliance on liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and piped natural gas (PNG) creates energy security risks and fiscal burdens due to high import dependence and subsidies. It advocates for a shift toward decentralized biogas for rural households and e-cooking for urban areas to align with net-zero goals. Fieldwork in Punjab, Rajasthan, and Uttarakhand shows that biogas is highly satisfactory and reduces firewood use by 70%, though high upfront costs remain a barrier. In urban centers like Delhi and Bengaluru, e-cooking is found to be cheaper in operational expenditure than LPG or PNG, with the potential to save the government up to INR 2.4 trillion in subsidies by 2050 under a high-growth scenario.
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Document type: Report
Water lost to evaporation from lower Snake River reservoirs
The four lower Snake River dams cause an average additional water loss of approximately 30,000 acre-feet per year due to evaporation compared to free-flowing conditions. This loss is valued at roughly $110 million as a water right and is equivalent to the water needed to grow 8,000 acres of apples or supply the household needs of 240,000 people. Future projections (2025–2055) suggest these losses will persist or slightly increase, ranging from 30,100 to 32,800 acre-feet per year across eight global climate models.
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Document type: Briefing
Climate change and high exposure: increased costs and disruption to lives and livelihoods from flooding associated with exceptionally heavy rainfall in Central Europe
An attribution study on the September 2024 Central European floods finds that human-induced climate change roughly doubled the likelihood of such an event and increased its intensity by 7%. While improved forecasting and emergency management reduced fatalities compared to the 1997 and 2002 floods, the scale of the event overwhelmed infrastructure in several urban centres, causing damages estimated at several billion Euros.
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Document type: Research paper
Land cover scenarios in four Kenyan arid and semi-arid regions by 2050
The study analyzes LULC trends in Turkana, Narok, West Pokot, and Elgeyo Marakwet counties, finding that achieving a 10% forest cover target yields the most favorable environmental and agricultural outcomes by 2050. It warns against the 'Shamba system' of forest-to-cropland conversion and highlights the threat of invasive species, particularly Prosopis juliflora, in arid regions.
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Document type: Research paper
Elephant Movements and Connectivity in the Kavango Zambezi Transfrontier Area (KAZA TFCA)
The document analyzes GPS collar data from 291 elephants to identify movement patterns and corridors across the KAZA TFCA. It finds that while 44% of collared elephants engage in transboundary movements, border fences act as almost complete barriers to females. The report identifies three types of micro-corridors—water-related, fence-channeled, and human-modified pinchpoints—and highlights significant threats including physical barriers, land use change, human-elephant conflict, and poaching. It recommends a combination of fence reviews, community-led corridor designation, and holistic human-elephant conflict management to maintain the connectivity of the world's largest elephant population.
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Document type: Policy brief
Greenhouse Gas and Air Quality Impacts of Incineration and Landfill
The report evaluates the climate and air quality impacts of residual waste treatment in the UK, comparing landfill and incineration across different scenarios. It finds that while incineration may currently appear more favorable due to energy credits, its relative performance is expected to decline by 2035 as the electricity grid decarbonises and waste composition changes. The study emphasizes that pre-treatment is essential for both technologies to align with net-zero targets and notes that incineration has a more significant negative impact on local air quality than landfill.
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Document type: Report
Living Planet Report 2020
The Living Planet Report 2020 documents a severe global decline in wildlife populations and ecosystems, highlighting the interconnectedness of nature and human health. It identifies land-use change, overexploitation, and climate change as primary drivers of biodiversity loss and proposes a roadmap to 'bend the curve' of this decline through integrated conservation and food system reform.
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Document type: Report
Managing Water as a Constraint to Development: A case for integrated planning in the Berg Water Management Area
The Berg Water Management Area is a constrained system where water requirements are projected to exceed yield by 2019. A hydro-economic analysis indicates that by 2040, the water supply deficit could cost the region over R146 billion and nearly 650,000 jobs annually, with the City of Cape Town bearing the highest opportunity costs. The report identifies systemic failures in current top-down planning and financing, recommending the establishment of a Regional Water Utility and the use of multi-criteria decision tools to prioritize 'smart' water use over first-come, first-served allocations.
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Document type: Report
Managing Water as a Constraint to Development: How will climate change impact agricultural water requirements in the Berg WMA?
The document analyzes water demand in the Berg WMA, highlighting that climate change will increase the water requirements of key crops like grapes, stone fruit, and citrus. It identifies a significant future water supply deficit, particularly in the municipalities of Swartland, Stellenbosch, and Drakenstein, and argues that the low economic 'value per drop' of agriculture compared to urban use will make securing additional water allocations difficult. The report recommends crop switching to low-water, high-value alternatives and investing in water efficiency technology to mitigate these risks.
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Document type: Briefing
WILDLIFE IN A WARMING WORLD
The report analyzes how different temperature rise scenarios (2°C, 3.2°C, and 4.5°C) affect species richness in 35 biodiversity-rich 'Priority Places'. It finds that while a 2°C limit significantly reduces extinction risks, a 'business as usual' 4.5°C scenario could put nearly 50% of species in these areas at risk of local extinction. The research emphasizes that species dispersal—the ability to move to new suitable habitats—can lower extinction rates, though this is less effective for plants, reptiles, and amphibians. The document concludes that urgent cuts to greenhouse-gas emissions and the creation of ecological corridors and refugia are essential to prevent widespread biodiversity loss.
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Document type: Report
Acrocomia aculeata as feedstock
The study identifies significant current potential for cultivating Acrocomia aculeata in Latin America, particularly in Central America, the Caribbean, northern Colombia, Venezuela, southern Brazil, and eastern Paraguay. However, it warns that many suitable areas are already used for agriculture or have high conservation value, and that under the IPCC A2A 'business as usual' scenario, most suitable growing areas could severely decline or disappear by 2080.
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Document type: Research paper
Coal Emissions in Europe
EU coal emissions rose 6% from 2010 to 2013, contributing to 18% of total EU CO2 emissions. This increase was driven by fuel-switching from gas to coal in Germany, the UK, and Poland, which together account for 66% of coal-based emissions. While renewables and falling demand reduced overall fossil generation by 4.3% per year, the low carbon price under the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) failed to prevent coal's resurgence. The report warns that the Industrial Emissions Directive (IED) may not force expected closures because of cheaper compliance technologies and the introduction of capacity markets, particularly in the UK and Poland, which risk locking in high-carbon infrastructure into the 2030s. Modelling suggests that if coal remains cheaper than gas, emissions will fall only 3% by 2016, though the potential for fuel-switching will increase by 2020. Sandbag recommends urgent ETS reform, mandatory carbon intensity reporting, and targeted CCS funding.
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Document type: Report
Proceedings of the National Seminar on Bioenergy
The proceedings detail a national seminar in Malawi focused on shifting from traditional biomass (firewood and charcoal) to modern bioenergy (bioethanol and biodiesel). Key discussions include the potential of Jatropha as a boundary crop to avoid food-fuel competition, the efficiency of improved cookstoves like the rocket stove, and the socio-economic benefits of sugarcane outgrower schemes. The document emphasizes the need for a coherent national policy to reduce reliance on imported fossil fuels and mitigate deforestation.
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Document type: Report
Sea-Level Rise The Impacts and Economic Costs of Sea-Level Rise on Coastal Zones in the EU and the Costs and Benefits of Adaptation
The document uses the Dynamic Interactive Vulnerability Assessment (DIVA) Model to project that under a medium-to-high emissions scenario (A1B(I)), annual damage costs in the EU could reach €25 billion by the 2080s, with 250,000 people flooded annually. It argues that a combination of mitigation (to limit long-term rise) and adaptation (such as dikes and beach nourishment) is the most effective response, noting that adaptation can reduce annual damage costs by up to 90% with a high benefit-to-cost ratio.
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Document type: Policy brief
Modelling the Effect of Climate Change on Environmental Pollution Losses from Dairy Systems in the UK
The study uses the SIMSDAIRY and LEGGRAZE models to project the impact of climate change on UK dairy systems across four time-slices (baseline, 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s). Findings indicate a general decrease in nitrous oxide (N2O) and overall greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions per litre of milk, but an increase in ammonia (NH3) emissions and nitrate (NO3) concentrations in leachate. While farm profitability and soil quality are projected to improve due to increased land productivity and altered rainfall patterns, the study highlights a trade-off with increased acidifying gases and water pollution.
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Document type: Research paper
Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture on Cayo District, Belize
The report finds that potential yields for dry beans, maize, pepper, and tomato in the Cayo District are projected to decline over the 21st century, with maize production potentially falling to just over 25% of 20th-century values. Livestock are expected to face increased thermal stress and reduced natural food availability as grassland biomass decreases. However, the study emphasizes a significant 'yield gap' between potential and actual yields due to poor technological efficiency, suggesting that improving management practices and irrigation could lead to a net increase in actual production despite declining potential yields.
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Document type: Case study
The impact of future climate change on sweet potato production
The study predicts that under the A1B medium emissions scenario for 2041-2070, sweet potato production in Jamaica will see significant increases in yield and biomass, alongside improved water productivity, suggesting the crop is a viable adaptation option for the region.
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Document type: Case study
Effect of climate change on water availability in the Font D’Or catchment, Saint Lucia
The study uses the Kestrel-Integrated Hydrological Model and CARIWIG climate data to project river flows in Saint Lucia's Font D’Or catchment. Results from two climate models, Echam5 and HADCM3Q0, generally predict a decrease in surface water availability, with the most severe reductions occurring in the HADCM3Q0 scenarios. These decreases, particularly during the rainy season, threaten water supplies for the tourism and agriculture sectors.
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Document type: Case study
Using a Deep Learning Framework to Forecast Reservoir Water Availability in India
WRI introduces a deep learning model, the Bayesian long short-term memory sequence-to-sequence-to-sequence model, to provide near-real-time forecasts of reservoir water volumes for a 90-day period in India. The pilot project focused on 11 reservoirs supplying thermal coal power generation, achieving a coefficient of determination score of 92% for short-term (1-14 day) forecasts and 56% for long-term (15-90 day) forecasts. The tool is intended to flag drought-like conditions and support the transition to water-prudent power production, though it is not intended for reservoir management operations.
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Document type: Research paper