Modelling the Effect of Climate Change on Environmental Pollution Losses from Dairy Systems in the UK

The study uses the SIMSDAIRY and LEGGRAZE models to project the impact of climate change on UK dairy systems across four time-slices (baseline, 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s). Findings indicate a general decrease in nitrous oxide (N2O) and overall greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions per litre of milk, but an increase in ammonia (NH3) emissions and nitrate (NO3) concentrations in leachate. While farm profitability and soil quality are projected to improve due to increased land productivity and altered rainfall patterns, the study highlights a trade-off with increased acidifying gases and water pollution.

• Most future scenarios projected a decrease in nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions both per hectare and per litre of milk, with the most significant reductions occurring in the West Midlands (WM) region, reaching 80% by the 2080s.
• Overall greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, measured as carbon equivalents (C-eq) per litre of milk, are expected to decrease over time across all scenarios, with reductions of up to 34% in the South West (SW), 32% in the West Midlands (WM), and 31% in the North West (NW).

APA

del Prado, A., Shepherd, A., Wu, L., Topp, C., Moran, D., Tolkamp, B., & Chadwick, D. (2009). Modelling the Effect of Climate Change on Environmental Pollution Losses from Dairy Systems in the UK. Basque Centre for Climate Change. https://www.bc3research.org/h6T8Uy8Nm4gFs0O/200910200204461304982827.pdf

Chicago

del Prado, Agustin, Anita Shepherd, Lianhai Wu, Cairistiona Topp, Dominic Moran, Bert Tolkamp, and David Chadwick. Modelling the Effect of Climate Change on Environmental Pollution Losses from Dairy Systems in the UK. Basque Centre for Climate Change, 2009. https://www.bc3research.org/h6T8Uy8Nm4gFs0O/200910200204461304982827.pdf.

Wikipedia

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BibTeX

@techreport{delprado2009modelling, author = {del Prado, Agustin and Shepherd, Anita and Wu, Lianhai and Topp, Cairistiona and Moran, Dominic and Tolkamp, Bert and Chadwick, David}, title = {{Modelling the Effect of Climate Change on Environmental Pollution Losses from Dairy Systems in the UK}}, institution = {Basque Centre for Climate Change}, year = {2009}, month = oct, url = {https://www.bc3research.org/h6T8Uy8Nm4gFs0O/200910200204461304982827.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }