Climate change and high exposure: increased costs and disruption to lives and livelihoods from flooding associated with exceptionally heavy rainfall in Central Europe

An attribution study on the September 2024 Central European floods finds that human-induced climate change roughly doubled the likelihood of such an event and increased its intensity by 7%. While improved forecasting and emergency management reduced fatalities compared to the 1997 and 2002 floods, the scale of the event overwhelmed infrastructure in several urban centres, causing damages estimated at several billion Euros.

• Human-induced climate change has roughly doubled the likelihood of heavy four-day rainfall events of this magnitude in the studied region and increased their intensity by approximately 7%. These results are considered conservative because the climate models used do not explicitly model convection, which may lead to an underestimation of precipitation increases.
• In the current climate, which is 1.3°C warmer than the pre-industrial period, a rainfall event of this magnitude is very rare, with an estimated return time of once every 100 to 300 years. Under a future scenario of 2°C global warming, models predict a further 50% increase in likelihood and a 5% increase in intensity compared to today.
• The heavy rainfall was driven by a Vb depression, a rare weather system formed when cold polar air from the north meets warm air in Southern Europe. Analysis of records since the 1950s indicates no robust change in the number of these analogous depressions.
• The event affected almost two million people and caused at least 24 deaths. While the death toll was significantly lower than the 2002 floods (232 deaths) and 1997 floods (at least 100 deaths) due to better forecasting and early warning systems, the magnitude of the floods overwhelmed infrastructure in several cities, resulting in damages estimated at several billion Euros.
• Specific urban areas identified as highly vulnerable and severely impacted include Nysa and Wroclaw in Poland; Bratislava in Slovakia; Galati and Vaslu in România; lower Austria and Vienna; and Ostrava, Opava, Krnov, Jeseník and Litovel in Czechia.

APA

World Weather Attribution (2024). Climate change and high exposure: increased costs and disruption to lives and livelihoods from flooding associated with exceptionally heavy rainfall in Central Europe. https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/climate-change-and-high-exposure-increased-costs-and-disruption-to-lives-and-livelihoods-from-flooding-associated-with-exceptionally-heavy-rainfall-in-central-europe/

Chicago

World Weather Attribution. Climate change and high exposure: increased costs and disruption to lives and livelihoods from flooding associated with exceptionally heavy rainfall in Central Europe. 2024. https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/climate-change-and-high-exposure-increased-costs-and-disruption-to-lives-and-livelihoods-from-flooding-associated-with-exceptionally-heavy-rainfall-in-central-europe/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=World Weather Attribution |title=Climate change and high exposure: increased costs and disruption to lives and livelihoods from flooding associated with exceptionally heavy rainfall in Central Europe |date=25 September 2024 |url=https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/climate-change-and-high-exposure-increased-costs-and-disruption-to-lives-and-livelihoods-from-flooding-associated-with-exceptionally-heavy-rainfall-in-central-europe/ |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{worldweatherattribution2024climate, author = {{World Weather Attribution}}, title = {{Climate change and high exposure: increased costs and disruption to lives and livelihoods from flooding associated with exceptionally heavy rainfall in Central Europe}}, institution = {World Weather Attribution}, year = {2024}, month = sep, url = {https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/climate-change-and-high-exposure-increased-costs-and-disruption-to-lives-and-livelihoods-from-flooding-associated-with-exceptionally-heavy-rainfall-in-central-europe/}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }