The impact of future climate change on sweet potato production

This case study uses the CARIWIG weather generator and the FAO AquaCrop model to assess the impact of future climate change on field-grown sweet potato production in Jamaica. The study compares a historical period (1981-2010) with a future period (2041-2070) under the A1B medium emissions scenario, focusing on three varieties: Ganja, Uplifta, and Yellow Belly.

• Under the A1B medium emissions scenario for the period 2041-2070 relative to 1981-2010, sweet potato production is projected to see significant increases in yield (mean increase of 32.5%) and biomass (mean increase of 33.9%). These increases are attributed to more consistent rainfall.
• The study indicates a projected decrease in reference evapotranspiration (ETo) of approximately 15% for the 2041-2070 period. The combination of reduced ETo and higher productivity is expected to lead to an increase in water productivity, with mean increases of 70.1%.
• Preliminary climate analysis for the 2041-2070 period under the A1B scenario shows a slight mean seasonal rainfall increase of 9.9 mm (+1.5%), though inter-annual variability is projected to be lower (124.6 mm) than in the 1981-2010 period (284.5 mm). Increases are also projected for relative humidity, vapour pressure, and both maximum and minimum temperatures.
• Sweet potato is identified as a potential adaptation crop for climate change due to its moderate drought tolerance, ability to grow on marginal lands, low requirements for inorganic fertilizers and labour, and the fact that its tubers are underground and protected from tropical cyclone winds.

APA

Rankine, D., Taylor, M., & Stephenson, T. (n.d.). The impact of future climate change on sweet potato production. Climate and Development Knowledge Network. http://cdkn.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/Cariwig-case-study-report-Sweet-Potato-Final.pdf

Chicago

Rankine, Dale, Michael Taylor, and Tannecia Stephenson. The impact of future climate change on sweet potato production. Climate and Development Knowledge Network, n.d. http://cdkn.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/Cariwig-case-study-report-Sweet-Potato-Final.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Rankine |first1=Dale |last2=Taylor |first2=Michael |last3=Stephenson |first3=Tannecia |title=The impact of future climate change on sweet potato production |publisher=Climate and Development Knowledge Network |url=http://cdkn.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/Cariwig-case-study-report-Sweet-Potato-Final.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{rankinendimpact, author = {Rankine, Dale and Taylor, Michael and Stephenson, Tannecia}, title = {{The impact of future climate change on sweet potato production}}, institution = {Climate and Development Knowledge Network}, url = {http://cdkn.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/Cariwig-case-study-report-Sweet-Potato-Final.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }