Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture on Cayo District, Belize

This case study assesses the potential impacts of climate change on staple crops and livestock in the Cayo District of Belize. Using various biophysical models and CARIWIG regional climate model outputs, the study projects a general decline in potential yields for dry beans, maize, pepper, and tomato by the end of the 21st century, alongside increased thermal stress and reduced food availability for livestock. However, the report highlights a significant 'yield gap' between current actual yields and potential yields, suggesting that improvements in technological efficiency and management could offset climate-driven declines in potential productivity.

• Climate change is projected to cause a decline in the potential yields of several staple crops in the Cayo District. Dry bean yields are expected to decrease, with the ECHAM5-forced RCM output suggesting a faster decline than the HadCM3-based runs. For mechanized corn, production is projected to drop to just over 25% of 20th-century values by the end of the century. Pepper yields show a similar decreasing trend, with an expectation of a "relatively large number of years when no yield is obtained at all (null yields)" by the end of the century. Potential tomato yields are projected to be halved by the end of the century.
• Livestock in Belize face risks from both reduced food availability and increased heat stress. Net primary productivity and standing biomass in grasslands are projected to decrease during the 21st century, specifically reducing the ratio of live biomass to dead biomass. This suggests that "natural food availability for grazing animals will be stressed with climate change." Additionally, thermal stress is expected to become "very harmful during this century," particularly between 10 am and 4 pm.
• There is a significant gap between current actual agricultural yields and their potential, termed a "technological efficiency ratio." Because actual yields are currently far from potential values due to poor technological efficiency, the report suggests that implementing better management and techniques—such as irrigation systems, better-adapted crop varieties, and improved cattle breeds—could lead to a net increase in actual yields even if potential yields decline due to climate change.

APA

Jr., R. R., Rivero, R., & Rivero, Z. (n.d.). Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture on Cayo District, Belize. Climate and Development Knowledge Network. http://cdkn.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/Cariwig-case-study-report-Agriculture-Belize-Final.pdf

Chicago

Jr., Roger Rivero, Roger Rivero, and Zoltan Rivero. Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture on Cayo District, Belize. Climate and Development Knowledge Network, n.d. http://cdkn.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/Cariwig-case-study-report-Agriculture-Belize-Final.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Jr. |first1=Roger Rivero |last2=Rivero |first2=Roger |last3=Rivero |first3=Zoltan |title=Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture on Cayo District, Belize |publisher=Climate and Development Knowledge Network |url=http://cdkn.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/Cariwig-case-study-report-Agriculture-Belize-Final.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{jrndassessment, author = {Jr., Roger Rivero and Rivero, Roger and Rivero, Zoltan}, title = {{Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture on Cayo District, Belize}}, institution = {Climate and Development Knowledge Network}, url = {http://cdkn.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/Cariwig-case-study-report-Agriculture-Belize-Final.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }