Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture on Cayo District, Belize

The report finds that potential yields for dry beans, maize, pepper, and tomato in the Cayo District are projected to decline over the 21st century, with maize production potentially falling to just over 25% of 20th-century values. Livestock are expected to face increased thermal stress and reduced natural food availability as grassland biomass decreases. However, the study emphasizes a significant 'yield gap' between potential and actual yields due to poor technological efficiency, suggesting that improving management practices and irrigation could lead to a net increase in actual production despite declining potential yields.

• Projected future climate conditions in the Cayo District are considered unsuitable for dry bean crops, with yields expected to decline over the coming decades. This trend is more pronounced when using ECHAM5-forced RCM outputs compared to HadCM3-based runs.
• Maize yields are projected to decrease significantly by the end of the century across all spatial cells. For mechanized corn, production is expected to be reduced to slightly more than 25% of the values seen in the 20th century.
• Vegetable yields for pepper and tomato are projected to decline. Pepper yields show a decreasing trend with an expectation of a relatively large number of 'null yields' (years with no yield) by the end of the century, while potential tomato yields are projected to be halved.
• Climate change is projected to reduce the availability of natural food for grazing animals due to a decreasing trend in net primary productivity and standing biomass in Belizean grasslands. The ratio of live biomass to dead biomass is expected to decrease from 2.0 to 1.6 under HadCM3 scenarios and from 1.8 to 1.6 under ECHAM scenarios.
• Livestock are expected to experience harmful thermal stress during the 21st century, particularly within the 10 am to 4 pm time window.
• A significant 'yield gap' exists between simulated potential yields and actual productivity due to poor technological efficiency. The report argues that improving techniques—such as introducing irrigation, better-adapted crop varieties, and improved cattle breeds—could result in a net increase in actual yields even if potential yields decline.

APA

Jr., R. R., Rivero, R., & Rivero, Z. (n.d.). Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture on Cayo District, Belize. Climate and Development Knowledge Network. http://cdkn.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/Cariwig-case-study-report-Agriculture-Belize-Final.pdf

Chicago

Jr., Roger Rivero, Roger Rivero, and Zoltan Rivero. Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture on Cayo District, Belize. Climate and Development Knowledge Network, n.d. http://cdkn.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/Cariwig-case-study-report-Agriculture-Belize-Final.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Jr. |first1=Roger Rivero |last2=Rivero |first2=Roger |last3=Rivero |first3=Zoltan |title=Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture on Cayo District, Belize |publisher=Climate and Development Knowledge Network |url=http://cdkn.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/Cariwig-case-study-report-Agriculture-Belize-Final.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{jrndassessment, author = {Jr., Roger Rivero and Rivero, Roger and Rivero, Zoltan}, title = {{Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture on Cayo District, Belize}}, institution = {Climate and Development Knowledge Network}, url = {http://cdkn.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/Cariwig-case-study-report-Agriculture-Belize-Final.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }