Causal pathways in the political economy of adaptation projects

The document proposes integrating Sovacool et al.'s "4E" typology (enclosure, exclusion, encroachment, and entrenchment) with the Mechanisms of Social Change (MOSC) mapping approach to identify causal pathways in adaptation projects. By mapping the solar electricity system in Turkana, Kenya, the authors demonstrate how specific actions—such as consultation, licensing, and facility design—create sequential pathways that determine how benefits and losses are distributed among community members.

• The authors propose that the "4E" typology of system dynamics—enclosure, exclusion, encroachment, and entrenchment—should be situated within a detailed map of the system structure to better understand how winners and losers are produced in adaptation projects.
• Using the Mechanisms of Social Change (MOSC) framework, the authors map the solar electricity system in Turkana, Kenya, as a sequence of eight basic actions involving four actor sets: electricity producers, community members, licensing authorities, and nature.
• The paper identifies four distinct sub-categories of entrenchment based on the specific actions within the system: design entrenchment (location and design), input entrenchment (who provides inputs), output entrenchment (who accesses electricity), and environmental entrenchment (disparity in access to natural resources).
• System mapping reveals that the 4E processes are causally interconnected, where "earlier" processes in the sequence influence the impact of "later" processes on community members.
• The authors illustrate these causal pathways through hypothetical examples, such as a long pathway where a lack of consultation (exclusion) leads to technical-only site selection (enclosure), which results in facilities being located in wealthy areas (design entrenchment), excluding marginalized groups from electricity (output entrenchment), and ultimately allowing wealthier members to monopolize water pumps (environment entrenchment).

APA

Lomaxa, J., Aminga, V., & Osborne, M. (2020). Causal pathways in the political economy of adaptation projects. Stockholm Environment Institute. https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/201117a-gill-osborne-turkana-solar-causal-pathways-wp-2010e.pdf

Chicago

Lomaxa, Jake, Vane Aminga, and Matthew Osborne. Causal pathways in the political economy of adaptation projects. Stockholm Environment Institute, 2020. https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/201117a-gill-osborne-turkana-solar-causal-pathways-wp-2010e.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Lomaxa |first1=Jake |last2=Aminga |first2=Vane |last3=Osborne |first3=Matthew |title=Causal pathways in the political economy of adaptation projects |publisher=Stockholm Environment Institute |date=July 2020 |url=https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/201117a-gill-osborne-turkana-solar-causal-pathways-wp-2010e.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{lomaxa2020causal, author = {Lomaxa, Jake and Aminga, Vane and Osborne, Matthew}, title = {{Causal pathways in the political economy of adaptation projects}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2020}, month = jul, url = {https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/201117a-gill-osborne-turkana-solar-causal-pathways-wp-2010e.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }