Locating the unintended consequences of interventions

The LUCI tool provides a five-step analytical framework to identify unintended consequences of development interventions by mapping the overlap between identity groups and impact groups. It emphasizes 'horizontal inequalities'—group-based disparities related to gender, ethnicity, or class—and how these can be exacerbated by poorly planned projects, leading to 'maladaptation' or increased conflict potential. The guide demonstrates the tool's application through a case study of solar hybrid mini-grid projects in Turkana County, Kenya, illustrating how access to electricity can create differential benefits and losses across various social and economic groups.

• Standard programme logic models and results frameworks often fail to identify unintended consequences because they are primarily designed to explain how intended impacts will be achieved, leaving the underlying theory for unintended effects absent.
• Climate and development interventions that are poorly planned can lead to 'maladaptation,' a process that increases social, economic, and environmental vulnerabilities by exacerbating underlying inequalities.
• The LUCI tool employs a five-step process: defining focal actions, identifying requisite and complementary resources, identifying outcomes (consequential, competition, common pool, and carbon/climate), identifying opportunities (supply, employment, and engagement), and analyzing the resulting inequalities.
• Horizontal inequalities—group-based disparities such as those based on ethnicity, gender, or class—are identified as particularly significant drivers of conflict, and development interventions can either reinforce or reduce these existing inequalities.
• In the application of LUCI to solar mini-grids in Turkana County, Kenya, the analysis found that benefits are not uniform; they depend on prerequisite resources like finance for connection and complementary resources such as water pumps or business ownership.
• The Kenya case study demonstrates that mini-grid interventions can create 'competition outcomes' where those without access to electricity or complementary resources (e.g., cafes without refrigerators) suffer losses due to competition from those who do have access.
• The LUCI analysis of Kenyan mini-grids identifies potential negative impacts on common pool resources, specifically that increased electricity for water pumps could lead to a reduction in groundwater levels, affecting all water users.

APA

Lomax, J., Osborne, M., & Lambe, F. (2023). Locating the unintended consequences of interventions. Stockholm Environment Institute. https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/luci-tool-sei2023.011.pdf

Chicago

Lomax, Jake, Matthew Osborne, and Fiona Lambe. Locating the unintended consequences of interventions. Stockholm Environment Institute, 2023. https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/luci-tool-sei2023.011.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Lomax |first1=Jake |last2=Osborne |first2=Matthew |last3=Lambe |first3=Fiona |title=Locating the unintended consequences of interventions |publisher=Stockholm Environment Institute |date=February 2023 |url=https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/luci-tool-sei2023.011.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{lomax2023locating, author = {Lomax, Jake and Osborne, Matthew and Lambe, Fiona}, title = {{Locating the unintended consequences of interventions}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2023}, month = feb, url = {https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/luci-tool-sei2023.011.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }