Research from India and Kenya - FULL REPORT 1

The report evaluates how to communicate the link between anthropogenic climate change and extreme weather events, testing various phrasings for probability, frequency, intensity, and uncertainty. Findings indicate that while high-level decision makers often prefer technical percentages and 'probability' terms, the general public finds these confusing, preferring simpler terms like 'worse' or 'more often'. The study highlights significant translation challenges in Swahili and Hindi and recommends that attribution information be downscaled to high spatial resolutions and co-developed with local communication experts and trusted sources, such as national meteorological agencies.

• High-level decision makers and media in Kenya generally prefer percentage-based information and the term 'chance' to communicate probability, while the general public in Kenya finds probability concepts very difficult to understand.
• In India, high-level decision makers prefer the term 'probability' and the use of percentages, whereas the general public showed a preference for the term 'chance'.
• Regarding frequency, Kenyan high-level decision makers and media prefer the phrase 'twice as often', while the Indian public found statements using 'lifetime' measurements (e.g., twice in a lifetime now occur 4 times) easiest to understand.
• For intensity, 'severity' is the preferred term for high-level decision makers and media in both Kenya and India, but the Kenyan public prefers the simpler term 'worse'.
• Uncertainty information is generally viewed as confusing and unnecessary by the majority of stakeholders, particularly the public in Kenya, who may interpret statistical ranges as a lack of evidence or 'guesswork'.
• Simplified statements are consistently preferred over technical ones across all stakeholder groups in both countries, particularly for inconclusive results or events that were less severe than predicted.
• Visual communication is most effective when using location-specific photographs and 'before and after' comparisons; however, technical elements like confidence indicators and generic climate change icons are frequently found confusing or irrelevant.
• National meteorological agencies are the most trusted sources of climate information for high-level decision makers and media in both India and Kenya.
• Translation into local languages presents significant hurdles, as terms like 'probability', 'likelihood', and 'chance' often translate to the same word in Swahili, and 'frequency' is difficult to translate into Hindi.

APA

Budimir, D. M., & Brown, S. (2017). Research from India and Kenya - FULL REPORT 1. Climate and Development Knowledge Network. https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/Communicating-extreme-weather-event-attribution-FULL-REPORT.pdf

Chicago

Budimir, Dr. Mirianna, and Sarah Brown. Research from India and Kenya - FULL REPORT 1. Climate and Development Knowledge Network, 2017. https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/Communicating-extreme-weather-event-attribution-FULL-REPORT.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Budimir |first1=Dr. Mirianna |last2=Brown |first2=Sarah |title=Research from India and Kenya - FULL REPORT 1 |publisher=Climate and Development Knowledge Network |date=March 2017 |url=https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/Communicating-extreme-weather-event-attribution-FULL-REPORT.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{budimir2017research, author = {Budimir, Dr. Mirianna and Brown, Sarah}, title = {{Research from India and Kenya - FULL REPORT 1}}, institution = {Climate and Development Knowledge Network}, year = {2017}, month = mar, url = {https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/Communicating-extreme-weather-event-attribution-FULL-REPORT.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }