Climate change impacts, adaptation options and opportunities for investment in agro-pastoral value chains in arid and semi-arid regions of Kenya

This report by the Stockholm Environment Institute analyzes climate change risks and adaptation strategies for eight nature-based value chains in four arid and semi-arid counties of Kenya: Narok, Elgeyo Marakwet, West Pokot, and Turkana. Using the VC-ARID methodology, the study identifies how rising temperatures and erratic rainfall impact production, processing, and marketing of products such as livestock, fodder, honey, and aloe. It emphasizes the need for transformative adaptation, including the integration of traditional knowledge with modern technology, the strengthening of cooperatives, and the involvement of the private sector to build resilience against frequent droughts and floods.

• The study identifies eight nature-based value chains critical to livelihoods in the target regions: pasture and fodder, livestock, bee, gum and resin, aloe, poultry, mango, and beadwork. Among these, livestock (75.4%) and indigenous poultry (50.1%) are the most prevalent across the four counties.
• Climate change is manifesting as increased frequency and severity of droughts and floods, with droughts now occurring every one to two years compared to every ten years in the 1980s. These hazards lead to water and pasture scarcity, increased pests and diseases, and climate-induced conflicts, particularly in West Pokot (75.7%).
• Projected temperature increases (between 0.4°C and 1.5°C) and decreased annual precipitation are expected to cause thermal heat stress in livestock and poultry. For livestock, temperatures above 20°C trigger heat stress, and every 1°C increase can reduce feed intake by 1–3%.
• The bee value chain is highly sensitive to temperature; foraging activity decreases when temperatures rise above 25°C. In Turkana, projected maximum temperatures above 35°C under RCP8.5 are expected to significantly decimate forage activity and colony food reserves.
• Certain nature-based products may benefit from rising temperatures. Gum and resin productivity is expected to increase as temperatures rise, as the Acacia Senegal tree is drought-tolerant and yields often increase in challenging, warmer environments.
• Aloe vera is identified as a highly dependable adaptation crop due to its drought resistance and ability to thrive in drier environments. In Turkana, it is used to produce liquid and solid soaps, shampoo, and herbal tea.
• Indigenous poultry provides a critical income source for women and youth, as these birds are hardier than ruminants during droughts. However, productivity is threatened by heat stress when temperatures exceed 27°C (moderate) and 32°C (severe).
• The mango value chain in Elgeyo Marakwet and West Pokot suffers from high post-harvest losses (80.5%) and a lack of aggregation centers, which leaves small-scale farmers vulnerable to exploitation by brokers.
• Beadwork and crafts in Narok County serve as an environmentally sustainable alternative livelihood for women, reducing pressure on natural resources and wildlife. Women in Talek earn an average of KES 4000 (USD 33) per month from these sales.
• There is a significant gap in access to essential supporting services across all four counties: only 25% of respondents access climate information, 21% access financial services, and 32.3% access market information.
• Gender inequality persists in resource management; while women are heavily involved in production, milking, and handicraft, men are typically the official decision-makers with control over natural resources and productive assets.

APA

Lutta, A., Mungo, C., Kehbila, A., Sunguti, E., & Osano, P. (2023). Climate change impacts, adaptation options and opportunities for investment in agro-pastoral value chains in arid and semi-arid regions of Kenya. Stockholm Environment Institute. https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/sei2023.065-climate-adaptation-asal-kenya.pdf

Chicago

Lutta, Alphayo, Carol Mungo, Anderson Kehbila, Elizabeth Sunguti, and Philip Osano. Climate change impacts, adaptation options and opportunities for investment in agro-pastoral value chains in arid and semi-arid regions of Kenya. Stockholm Environment Institute, 2023. https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/sei2023.065-climate-adaptation-asal-kenya.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Lutta |first1=Alphayo |last2=Mungo |first2=Carol |last3=Kehbila |first3=Anderson |last4=Sunguti |first4=Elizabeth |last5=Osano |first5=Philip |title=Climate change impacts, adaptation options and opportunities for investment in agro-pastoral value chains in arid and semi-arid regions of Kenya |publisher=Stockholm Environment Institute |date=December 2023 |url=https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/sei2023.065-climate-adaptation-asal-kenya.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{lutta2023climate, author = {Lutta, Alphayo and Mungo, Carol and Kehbila, Anderson and Sunguti, Elizabeth and Osano, Philip}, title = {{Climate change impacts, adaptation options and opportunities for investment in agro-pastoral value chains in arid and semi-arid regions of Kenya}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2023}, month = dec, url = {https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/sei2023.065-climate-adaptation-asal-kenya.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }