Climate change impacts, adaptation options and opportunities for investment in agro-pastoral value chains in arid and semi-arid regions of Kenya

The report examines the vulnerability of agro-pastoral value chains in Kenya's arid and semi-arid lands (ASAL) to climate change, specifically focusing on temperature increases and rainfall variability. Using the VC-ARID methodology, it analyzes eight value chains: pasture/fodder, livestock, bee, gum and resin, aloe, poultry, mango, and beadwork. Findings indicate that rising temperatures and water stress generally reduce productivity for livestock, poultry, and fodder, while potentially increasing yields for gum and resin. The report emphasizes the need for transformative adaptation, including the formalization of cooperatives, improved market infrastructure, and the integration of gender-inclusive policies to enhance community resilience.

• Climate change is manifesting in Kenya's arid and semi-arid lands through increased severity and frequency of droughts and floods, land degradation, and temperature and rainfall variations, which threaten food system stability and community quality of life.
• Across the four studied counties, there is critically low access to essential supporting services, with only 25% of respondents accessing climate information, 21% accessing financial services, and 32.3% accessing market information.
• Projected climate scenarios indicate a general increase in mean monthly maximum and minimum temperatures and a decrease in annual precipitation for West Pokot, Turkana, and Narok, which is expected to exacerbate water and heat stress.
• The pasture and fodder value chain faces significant risks from projected temperatures exceeding the 30°C threshold in Turkana and West Pokot, which, combined with reduced rainfall, will likely diminish fodder quantity, quality, and nutritional value.
• Livestock productivity is threatened by thermal heat stress as temperatures exceed 20°C, with every 1°C increase in warming projected to reduce livestock feed intake by 1–3%, leading to lower body weight and reduced milk and meat output.
• The bee value chain is highly vulnerable to temperatures above 25°C, which increases the need for nest cooling, reduces foraging activity, and increases brood mortality, particularly in Turkana where temperatures may exceed 35°C.
• Unlike most other nature-based value chains, gum and resin productivity is expected to increase with rising temperatures, as the Acacia Senegal tree is drought-tolerant and yields often rise in challenging, hotter environments.
• Aloe vera is identified as a highly suitable adaptation crop due to its extreme drought resistance and ability to thrive in drier environments, though producers currently lack knowledge of national legislation and sustainable seedling acquisition.
• Indigenous poultry are susceptible to severe heat stress at temperatures above 32°C, which negatively impacts egg quality, hatchability, and growth rates, with Turkana facing the highest risk.
• Mango production is generally adaptable to heat, but projected temperature increases of 0.4°C to 1.5°C may shift suitable production zones and increase the delay in flower initiation and fruit set, especially in Turkana.
• Beadwork and crafts provide a critical alternative income for women in Narok, but the value chain is vulnerable to climate change indirectly through the potential decline in tourism if wildlife populations decrease.
• Gender inequality persists in value chain governance, as men typically control productive assets and decision-making, while women perform essential but often invisible roles in production and processing.

APA

Lutta, A., Mungo, C., Kehbila, A., Sunguti, E., & Osano, P. (2023). Climate change impacts, adaptation options and opportunities for investment in agro-pastoral value chains in arid and semi-arid regions of Kenya. Stockholm Environment Institute. https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/sei2023.065-climate-adaptation-asal-kenya.pdf

Chicago

Lutta, Alphayo, Carol Mungo, Anderson Kehbila, Elizabeth Sunguti, and Philip Osano. Climate change impacts, adaptation options and opportunities for investment in agro-pastoral value chains in arid and semi-arid regions of Kenya. Stockholm Environment Institute, 2023. https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/sei2023.065-climate-adaptation-asal-kenya.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Lutta |first1=Alphayo |last2=Mungo |first2=Carol |last3=Kehbila |first3=Anderson |last4=Sunguti |first4=Elizabeth |last5=Osano |first5=Philip |title=Climate change impacts, adaptation options and opportunities for investment in agro-pastoral value chains in arid and semi-arid regions of Kenya |publisher=Stockholm Environment Institute |date=December 2023 |url=https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/sei2023.065-climate-adaptation-asal-kenya.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{lutta2023climate, author = {Lutta, Alphayo and Mungo, Carol and Kehbila, Anderson and Sunguti, Elizabeth and Osano, Philip}, title = {{Climate change impacts, adaptation options and opportunities for investment in agro-pastoral value chains in arid and semi-arid regions of Kenya}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2023}, month = dec, url = {https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/sei2023.065-climate-adaptation-asal-kenya.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }