Land cover four Kenyan arid regions 2050

This research paper by the Stockholm Environment Institute analyzes land use and land cover (LULC) data from 2001, 2011, and 2021 to project outcomes for 2050 in four arid and semiarid counties in Kenya. The study evaluates three scenarios—achieving 10% forest cover, converting forests to croplands, and restoring degraded forests—to guide sustainable land management and meet Kenyan government climate commitments.

• The study concludes that implementing interventions to achieve a 10% forest cover (scenario 1) provides the most beneficial environmental results by 2050. This scenario is associated with both an increase in forest cover and an expansion of croplands across all four analyzed counties.
• Modelling indicates that the proportion of cropland achieved under the 10% forest cover scenario will not differ significantly from the forest-to-cropland conversion scenario. This is because healthy forests support croplands via soil erosion protection, groundwater conservation, and climate regulation.
• Land management strategies must be tailored to specific geographical contexts. In Turkana, the priority should be restoring degraded lands and increasing tree cover, whereas in Narok, West Pokot, and Elgeyo Marakwet, the primary focus should be on stopping deforestation.
• The researchers identified risks of forest and wetland degradation due to the proximity of farmlands to forests and the presence of croplands along rivers, particularly in West Pokot and Turkana. Specifically, the "Shamba system," which permits cultivation within forests, is projected to cause significant forest loss.
• Spatial mapping shows forest cover is distributed linearly along water bodies, especially in Turkana County. The study emphasizes the need for capacity-building to help local communities manage and detect invasive "alien" or "non-native" species.

APA

Stockholm Environment Institute (2024). Land cover four Kenyan arid regions 2050. https://www.sei.org/publications/land-cover-four-kenyan-arid-regions-2050/

Chicago

Stockholm Environment Institute. Land cover four Kenyan arid regions 2050. 2024. https://www.sei.org/publications/land-cover-four-kenyan-arid-regions-2050/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Stockholm Environment Institute |title=Land cover four Kenyan arid regions 2050 |date=1 July 2024 |url=https://www.sei.org/publications/land-cover-four-kenyan-arid-regions-2050/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{stockholmenvironmentinstitute2024land, author = {{Stockholm Environment Institute}}, title = {{Land cover four Kenyan arid regions 2050}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2024}, month = jul, url = {https://www.sei.org/publications/land-cover-four-kenyan-arid-regions-2050/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }