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The document introduces Senegal as a lower-middle-income country in West Africa with a dry tropical climate and significant mineral deposits. It outlines the country's political evolution from independence in 1960 through various peaceful transitions of power, highlighting its position as a democratic example in the region.

The document outlines a framework for responsible mining of transition minerals, focusing on protecting carbon-rich ecosystems, upholding Indigenous rights through Free, Prior, and Informed Consent (FPIC), and implementing rigorous climate-integrated impact assessments. It advocates for standardized Scope 1-3 emissions reporting, digital traceability, and a shift toward a circular economy to reduce virgin metal demand. Additionally, it proposes equitable benefit-sharing models, such as co-ownership and sovereign wealth funds, to ensure a just energy transition.

The report projects that Liberia's population will grow to 8.2 million by 2043, with GDP more than tripling to US$10.8 billion under the Current Path. While extreme poverty is expected to decline from 62.9% in 2019 to 31.9% by 2043, the absolute number of poor people will increase due to population growth. The analysis highlights that agricultural improvements, financial flows, and free trade offer the highest potential for GDP per capita growth, while the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario could potentially lift an additional 2.2 million people out of poverty and double the economy's size to US$21.6 billion, albeit at the cost of higher carbon emissions.

The document introduces Guinea, detailing its transition to a lower-middle-income country in 2023 and its history of political instability and coups. It highlights the country's significant mineral wealth, particularly bauxite and iron ore, and its potential for hydroelectric power due to its geography and rainfall.

The report projects that Guinea-Bissau's population will grow to 3.2 million by 2043, with a shift toward an urban-majority population. While GDP is expected to quadruple on the Current Path, extreme poverty will remain high. The report evaluates 11 sectoral scenarios, identifying agriculture and free trade as the most potent drivers for increasing GDP per capita and reducing poverty. A combined Agenda 2063 scenario suggests a potential GDP of US$16.4 billion and a significant reduction in poverty to 14.9% of the population, though this would be accompanied by an increase in carbon emissions to 1.2 million tons.

The report analyzes Guinea's 'Current Path' development trajectory to 2043, concluding that the country is not on track to meet the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals. It highlights the severe impact of foreign aid withdrawal due to political instability and recommends strategic interventions in governance, economic diversification, agriculture, human capital, and infrastructure to foster inclusive growth.

The document introduces ECOWAS as a regional economic community established in 1975 to promote economic integration and stability in West Africa. While it has achieved some success in facilitating free movement for citizens, the bloc currently faces significant threats from terrorism, climate change in the Sahel, and infrastructure deficits. The document highlights a critical geopolitical crisis where Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger have announced their intention to exit the bloc by January 2025, citing sanctions and a failure to combat insecurity.

The report details specific multipliers and targets for Burundi across several development scenarios. Key interventions include improving government effectiveness, reducing child and maternal mortality, increasing vocational training, boosting agricultural yields, and expanding renewable energy and ICT infrastructure. The document compares these projected outcomes against averages for low-income African countries and historical benchmarks from other African nations.

The report details systemic gender discrimination in African households, highlighting the prevalence of child marriage, the disproportionate burden of unpaid care work on women, and legal and cultural barriers to equal divorce and inheritance rights.

The document outlines a simulated agricultural revolution in Africa based on eight interventions: increasing crop yields, expanding irrigation, increasing water withdrawal, protecting forests, improving supply chains, enhancing rural road access, and increasing per capita calories. The scenario predicts that by 2043, average crop yields will reach 7 tons per hectare (a 37% increase over the 'Current Path') and irrigated land will grow to 17.4 million hectares. It emphasizes the role of these interventions in reducing food loss and waste—projected to drop to 19.4% by 2033—and improving rural accessibility to 69%. The model balances agricultural expansion with forest protection, aiming to save 30 million hectares of forest land by 2043 compared to the Current Path forecast.

The document introduces investor-state dispute settlement (ISDS) as a mechanism allowing foreign investors to bring claims against host states before international tribunals. It highlights that the mining sector is one of the most frequent targets of such claims, which can result in large monetary awards and delay regulatory reforms. The brief details how consent for ISDS is established through investment treaties, domestic laws, and contracts, and notes a growing trend of claims linked to the demand for critical minerals. It concludes with recommendations for governments to manage ISDS risks through inter-agency coordination, thorough documentation, and legal coherence.

The report analyzes Africa's economic growth drivers, arguing that while labour-fueled growth is unlikely to emulate other regions due to a late demographic dividend, future growth must rely on physical capital accumulation and multifactor productivity (MFP). It highlights that for low- and lower-middle-income African countries, poor physical capital is the primary drag on growth, whereas upper-middle-income countries are constrained by poor human capital.

The report examines how the UAE and Saudi Arabia are emerging as primary financiers of clean energy in Africa, noting a shift toward multi-billion dollar renewable and hydrogen projects. While GCC investments are substantial, they are currently concentrated in a few low-risk markets like Egypt, Morocco, and South Africa. The authors argue that to maximize impact, the GCC should pivot toward funding transmission infrastructure, geothermal energy, methane abatement, and critical mineral refining across a broader range of African nations.

Since the death of Yevgeny Prigozhin in 2023, Russia has restructured its African security engagements, moving from the high-profile combat deployments of the Wagner Group to a more centralised model controlled by the Kremlin and the GRU. This new approach prioritises 'regime survival' services, including elite protection, training, and intelligence sharing, while expanding covert information warfare through entities like Russia House and the African Initiative. Despite these efforts, Russia's footprint is constrained by the resource demands of its war in Ukraine and risks of 'blowback' from African governments due to human rights abuses and deceptive recruitment schemes like 'Alabuga Start'.

The report argues that the African Union Commission's reform, which reduced commissioners from eight to six, has led to institutional imbalances where crisis response overshadows conflict prevention. It highlights a significant funding gap for the new structure, costing an additional US$53 million. The document also analyzes the rise of military coups, attributing them to 'democratic subversions' such as the removal of term limits, and discusses the strain on Africa's humanitarian system due to conflict and climate shocks.

The document argues that ECOWAS's perceived success in promoting democracy during the 2000s and 2010s was illusory, based on a narrow definition of democracy centered on elections rather than human rights and the rule of law. This approach, combined with a tendency to defer to the interests of heads of state, has led to a disconnect between the bloc and West African citizens. The paper highlights the impact of recent coups since 2020 and the formation of the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) as evidence of this failure and a decline in Nigeria's regional influence. It concludes by recommending the creation of a Citizens Consultation Forum and a strategic task force on governance to restore credibility.

The document advocates for a transition from a representation-based Women, Peace and Security (WPS) agenda to a substantive feminist approach within ECOWAS. It highlights a gap between existing regional gender-justice frameworks and their practical application, noting that patriarchal power structures continue to drive conflict. The author recommends that ECOWAS institutionalise partnerships with grassroots movements, incorporate intersectionality into its Conflict Prevention Framework, and adopt feminist responses to climate insecurity and security sector reform to achieve lasting social transformation.

The document evaluates the ECOWAS free movement framework, noting its success in facilitating intra-regional mobility while highlighting significant barriers such as insecurity, protectionist national policies, and the recent withdrawal of Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso to form the Alliance of Sahel States (AES).

The document examines the challenges facing ECOWAS in its peacekeeping efforts, particularly the lack of formal integration with the AU and UN. It highlights how the ambiguous application of the AU's subsidiarity principle and the withdrawal of Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger have strained regional security. To address these issues and access UN-assessed funding under Resolution 2719, the paper recommends formalising the division of labour between ECOWAS and the AU and increasing ECOWAS's direct engagement in global peace operations planning.

The document examines the evolution of National Youth Policies (NYPs) in Africa, noting a steep increase in adoption that peaked in 2020. While these policies frequently address education, employment, and health, they often neglect youth political participation and face significant implementation gaps. Adoption is driven more by political and institutional factors, such as democracy and administrative capacity, than by demographic needs.