The Contribution of Labour, Capital and Technology to Growth

The report analyzes Africa's economic growth drivers, arguing that while labour-fueled growth is unlikely to emulate other regions due to a late demographic dividend, future growth must rely on physical capital accumulation and multifactor productivity (MFP). It highlights that for low- and lower-middle-income African countries, poor physical capital is the primary drag on growth, whereas upper-middle-income countries are constrained by poor human capital.

• Africa's historical economic growth was hindered by the loss of labour through slavery and the legacy of colonialism, which left sub-Saharan populations with limited education and infrastructure to engage in global trade.
• Post-independence industrialisation efforts in countries such as Ghana, Nigeria, Burkina Faso, Guinea, and the former Ivory Coast failed because they lacked a foundation in agriculture and domestic economic linkages, relying instead on subsidies and aid.
• Africa may enter a demographic window of opportunity by mid-century; the ratio of working-age persons to dependents improved to 1.3 to one by 2023 and is projected to reach 1.6 to one by 2043.
• Due to high dependency ratios and low employment growth, labour contributes the least to sustainable growth in low- and lower-middle-income African countries; growth is instead driven by multifactor productivity (MFP) and capital accumulation.
• The primary constraints to growth vary by income level: physical capital (infrastructure) is the largest drag for low- and lower-middle-income groups, while human capital (education and health) constrains upper-middle-income countries.

APA

Cilliers, J. (2026). The Contribution of Labour, Capital and Technology to Growth. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=17-combined-agenda-2063&topic=03-contribution-of-labour

Chicago

Cilliers, Jakkie. The Contribution of Labour, Capital and Technology to Growth. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=17-combined-agenda-2063&topic=03-contribution-of-labour.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cilliers |first1=Jakkie |title=The Contribution of Labour, Capital and Technology to Growth |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=29 March 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=17-combined-agenda-2063&topic=03-contribution-of-labour |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cilliers2026contribution, author = {Cilliers, Jakkie}, title = {{The Contribution of Labour, Capital and Technology to Growth}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = mar, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=17-combined-agenda-2063&topic=03-contribution-of-labour}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }