ISS African Futures

This report provides a comprehensive development forecast for Liberia up to 2043, comparing a 'Current Path' scenario (continuing current policies) against various sectoral improvement scenarios and a 'Combined Agenda 2063' scenario. It analyzes demographics, economic growth, poverty levels, infrastructure, and carbon emissions, highlighting that while GDP is expected to grow, significant challenges remain in food security, rural electricity access, and extreme poverty.

• Under the Current Path forecast, Liberia's population is projected to grow from 4.9 million in 2019 to 8.2 million by 2043, an increase of approximately 67.3%.
• Liberia's GDP is estimated to more than triple from 2019, reaching US$10.8 billion by 2043 under the Current Path forecast.
• Extreme poverty (living on less than US$1.90 per day) is projected to peak in 2029 at 4.8 million people (over 77% of the population) before declining to 2.6 million people (31.9% of the population) by 2043 in the Current Path scenario.
• Food security is a major concern as the gap between agricultural demand and domestic production is projected to widen to 2.31 million metric tons by 2043 under the Current Path.
• Carbon emissions are forecast to rise from 330,000 tons in 2019 to 1.5 million tons by 2043 in the Current Path, with the Agriculture scenario causing the highest increase to 1.62 million tons.
• Electricity access remains low and disparate; by 2043, the Current Path projects 67.3% of urban dwellers and only 25.7% of rural dwellers will have access.
• The Agriculture scenario is identified as the most impactful single intervention for GDP per capita, contributing an additional US$346.60 by 2043.
• The Combined Agenda 2063 scenario, integrating all 11 sectoral improvements, would more than double the economy's size to US$21.6 billion by 2043 and reduce the number of people in extreme poverty to 368,000 (4.9% of the population).

APA

Institute for Security Studies (n.d.). ISS African Futures. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=LR&topic=current-path

Chicago

Institute for Security Studies. ISS African Futures. n.d. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=LR&topic=current-path.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Institute for Security Studies |title=ISS African Futures |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=LR&topic=current-path |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{instituteforsecuritystudiesndiss, author = {{Institute for Security Studies}}, title = {{ISS African Futures}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=LR&topic=current-path}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }