Liberia Development Futures

The report projects that Liberia's population will grow to 8.2 million by 2043, with GDP more than tripling to US$10.8 billion under the Current Path. While extreme poverty is expected to decline from 62.9% in 2019 to 31.9% by 2043, the absolute number of poor people will increase due to population growth. The analysis highlights that agricultural improvements, financial flows, and free trade offer the highest potential for GDP per capita growth, while the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario could potentially lift an additional 2.2 million people out of poverty and double the economy's size to US$21.6 billion, albeit at the cost of higher carbon emissions.

• Under the Current Path forecast, Liberia's population is projected to increase from 4.9 million in 2019 to 8.2 million by 2043, an increase of approximately 67.3%.
• Liberia's GDP is expected to more than triple from 2019, reaching US$10.8 billion by 2043 in the Current Path scenario.
• Extreme poverty (living on less than US$1.90 per day) is projected to fall from 62.9% of the population in 2019 to 31.9% by 2043, though the absolute number of poor people will rise from 3.1 million to 2.6 million (note: the document states 2.6 million is 700,000 more than 2019 levels, implying a peak of 4.8 million in 2029).
• Carbon emissions are forecast to rise from 330,000 tons in 2019 to 1.5 million tons by 2043 under the Current Path, with the Agriculture scenario causing the highest increase to 1.62 million tons.
• The Agriculture scenario provides the most significant potential for economic gain, contributing an additional US$346.60 to GDP per capita by 2043 and potentially lifting 900,000 additional people out of extreme poverty.
• Electricity access is projected to improve from 20.9% in 2019 to 63.6% by 2043 in the Infrastructure scenario, significantly reducing the rural-urban gap by increasing rural access to 49.5% compared to 25.7% in the Current Path.
• The Combined Agenda 2063 scenario, integrating 11 sectoral interventions, could increase GDP per capita to US$4,358 by 2043 and reduce the number of people in extreme poverty to 368,000 (4.9% of the population).
• In the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario, the total GDP is projected to reach US$21.6 billion by 2043, more than doubling the Current Path estimate of US$10.8 billion.

APA

Aikins, E. R. (2026). Liberia Development Futures. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=LR&topic=current-path

Chicago

Aikins, Enoch Randy. Liberia Development Futures. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=LR&topic=current-path.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Aikins |first1=Enoch Randy |title=Liberia Development Futures |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=31 May 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=LR&topic=current-path |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{aikins2026liberia, author = {Aikins, Enoch Randy}, title = {{Liberia Development Futures}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = may, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=LR&topic=current-path}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }