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The report finds that recognizing all types of CERs for use after 2020 is unlikely to trigger significant additional emission reductions because most available supply comes from projects that would continue abatement without CER revenues. It identifies critical risks to environmental integrity, including double claiming with 2020 targets and the potential for higher cumulative emissions when using CERs for single-year targets. To safeguard environmental integrity, the authors recommend limiting eligibility to newly developed additional projects or already implemented projects at high risk of discontinuing abatement, while ensuring robust accounting through corresponding adjustments.

The document provides executive summaries of national reports for Bulgaria, Estonia, Germany, Greece, Italy, Serbia, and the UK. It evaluates various energy efficiency scenarios—including Business as Usual (BAU) and those incorporating the impact of socio-economic barriers—using LEAP modelling and a Decision Support Tool (DST). The analysis consistently shows that while ambitious energy efficiency measures can meet EU targets, the presence of socio-economic barriers significantly reduces potential energy savings and GHG reductions across most studied countries and sectors.

RMI proposes that a nearly 100 percent renewable energy system is achievable by the mid-2050s by applying market adoption 'S-curves' seen in previous industrial revolutions to clean energy technologies. The briefing emphasizes that the transition is driven by declining costs, electrification of end-uses, and decentralized adoption rather than solely by government mandates. To meet the 1.5°C target, the document asserts that the energy sector must be paired with high-impact measures in the agricultural, forestry, and land-use (AFOLU) sectors to create net carbon sinks by mid-century.

The project developed a 2012 base year emissions inventory and projections to 2030 for Pakistan, identifying that emissions are expected to grow significantly without additional intervention. It analyzed mitigation options across agriculture, forestry, energy, industry, transport, and waste, concluding that implementing these measures could reduce emissions by over 100 megatonnes. A sensitivity analysis highlighted that GDP growth is a primary driver of future emissions, with higher growth rates leading to substantially higher GHG levels.

The document analyzes Africa's epidemiological transition, noting that while communicable diseases currently cause a disproportionate share of deaths, non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are rising. Using scenario modeling, it argues that achieving SDG 3.3 (eradicating communicable diseases) would significantly boost GDP and life expectancy but accelerate the shift toward NCDs, potentially stressing health systems. Conversely, achieving SDG 3.4 (reducing premature NCD deaths) improves productivity through reduced disability but offers smaller overall economic gains than the eradication of infectious diseases.

The report argues that an accelerated phase-out of coal power in Alberta would significantly reduce premature deaths, emergency room visits, and asthma episodes, while providing billions in socio-economic value. By extrapolating data from Environment Canada's Regulatory Impact Analysis Statement (RIAS), the authors demonstrate that a stepwise transition proposed by the Pembina Institute would more than double the health benefits of the 2012 federal regulations between 2015 and 2035.

The report establishes a business-as-usual (BAU) GHG emissions baseline for Pakistan, projecting total emissions to reach 768 Mt CO2e by 2030. Agriculture is identified as the largest emission source, accounting for over 40% of emissions in 2012. The energy sector is further divided into residential, commercial, industrial, transport, and electricity generation. The analysis highlights significant data gaps in agriculture, LULUCF, and waste sectors, and concludes that GDP growth is the primary driver of future emission levels, with a high-growth scenario potentially increasing 2030 emissions by 36% relative to the reference case.

The 'Reinventing Fire: China' roadmap proposes a transition to a low-carbon energy system by 2050, focusing on demand reduction and a shift to non-fossil fuels. The analysis compares a 'Reference Scenario' with a 'Reinventing Fire Scenario,' finding that the latter can support 600% incremental GDP growth while keeping 2050 primary energy demand within 1% of 2010 levels. Key strategies include aggressive efficiency gains in industry, buildings, and transportation, alongside a power sector transition where 82% of electricity is non-fossil by 2050. The roadmap estimates a net present value savings of 21 trillion RMB and significant reductions in CO2, SO2, and NOX emissions.

The document establishes a business-as-usual (BAU) GHG emission reference case for Pakistan, projecting emissions from 2000 to 2030. It identifies agriculture as the largest emission source and analyzes how variations in GDP growth and autonomous energy efficiency improvements (AEEI) impact future emission levels. The reference case assumes an average annual GDP growth rate of 6% between 2015 and 2030.

The report analyzes the compatibility of Carbon Market Clubs (CMCs)—networks of emissions trading schemes (ETSs) sharing rules and services—with various 'climate clubs' consisting of governments, cities, and businesses. It explores whether standardized CMC services, such as mitigation value assessments and international asset reserves, can reduce transaction costs and political barriers to linking diverse carbon markets. While the Paris Agreement's Article 6.2 encourages voluntary cooperation, the report finds that political concerns over sovereignty, environmental integrity, and the 'not invented here' syndrome often outweigh technical efficiencies. Case studies of the EU ETS, WCI, RGGI, and ICAO illustrate the tension between the desire for centralized control and the economic benefits of networked markets.

The report assesses the impact of corporate commitments—specifically RE100, Science-Based Targets, EP100, Zero-Deforestation, and the LCTPi—on global emission reductions and evaluates how supportive policy environments could enhance these contributions.

The report finds that Africa is not on track to meet Sustainable Development Goal 6 (SDG 6) for universal WASH access by 2030. Using the International Futures (IFs) forecasting system, the authors analyze three paths: a 'Current Path' where few countries meet targets; a 'Universal Access' scenario requiring aggressive investment; and a 'Balancing WASH' scenario that prioritizes high-impact, lower-cost improvements. While universal access offers the highest economic and health gains, it requires an additional US$122 billion in infrastructure spending and may force detrimental trade-offs in health and education budgets. The 'Balancing WASH' approach is presented as a more realistic alternative, delivering approximately 50% of the human development benefits of universal access at only 30% of the cost (US$36 billion).

The document analyzes how two climate scenarios, Radical Emissions Reduction (RER) and High-end Climate Change (HCC), impact four Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the stability of Saudi Arabia and Nigeria. Under RER, the transition to meet Paris Agreement targets may trigger food-versus-fuel conflicts, gender-based violence from biofuel-driven displacement, and geopolitical instability in oil-dependent states. Conversely, the HCC scenario suggests that climate-driven agricultural failure and water scarcity would exacerbate armed conflicts, global inequality, and the influence of extremist groups. The authors argue that the short-term geopolitical costs of rapid climate action must be integrated into national policy formulation to manage risks effectively.

The study uses a GTAP-BIO computable general equilibrium model to analyze the relationship between biofuel mandates and feedstock price volatility. It finds that while yield declines significantly increase prices for sugar crops, grains, and oilseeds, the impact on biofuel prices themselves is small. The authors argue that flexible policies, specifically production waivers during low-yield years, can significantly reduce feedstock price spikes, though the effectiveness of such waivers decreases if their implementation is delayed by one year.

The document argues that global diets are converging toward resource-intensive Western styles, which threatens environmental sustainability and human health. Using the GlobAgri model, the authors demonstrate that reducing calorie and protein overconsumption among wealthy populations can significantly spare agricultural land and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The paper introduces the 'Shift Wheel' framework to help the food industry implement these dietary changes through behavioral and marketing strategies.

South Africa is overexploiting its water resources, with national withdrawals exceeding reliable supply. Forecasts indicate that municipal, industrial, and agricultural water demand will continue to rise through 2035, reaching an estimated 18.9 km3. Even if all large-scale reconciliation strategies are implemented, a supply gap is expected to persist. The paper argues that closing this gap requires additional measures beyond surface-water infrastructure, specifically focusing on groundwater development, wastewater treatment, and water conservation and water demand management (WCWDM).

The report analyzes Estonia's energy transition from a system heavily dependent on oil shale to one based on low-carbon sources by 2050. Using LEAP, Balmorel, and EMPS models, it evaluates four scenarios: Baseline (BAU), Carbon Neutral (CN), 100% renewable (RES), and 100% renewable with increased demand (RES+). Key findings highlight that while wind and biomass have significant potential, achieving a carbon-neutral sector requires phasing out oil shale by 2040, expanding interconnections with the Nordic Power System (specifically Sweden and Finland), and implementing policy reforms such as removing fossil fuel subsidies and increasing investment support for small-scale renewables and energy efficiency.

The document argues that for Germany to be compatible with the Paris Agreement's goals of limiting temperature increase to well below 2°C and aiming for 1.5°C, it must achieve zero CO2 emissions before 2035. This would require a 100% renewable energy mix across all sectors by 2035, a complete phase-out of coal by approximately 2025, and the renovation of 5% of existing buildings annually to nearly zero energy standards.

The study examines how fragmented climate policies, where some regions implement carbon taxes while others do not, lead to 'carbon leakage'—the relocation of emissions to non-participating regions. It distinguishes between industrial carbon leakage (ICL), driven by fossil fuel price changes, and terrestrial carbon leakage (TCL), driven by land-use changes. The findings indicate that TCL is the dominant form of leakage until 2050, primarily due to deforestation in non-participating regions as food and bioenergy production shift away from participating areas. The research concludes that the total leakage rate decreases as the size of the climate coalition increases, but even the most inclusive fragmented scenarios fail to limit global temperature rise to below 2°C by 2100.

The report analyzes pathways for California, Oregon, and Washington to reduce transportation petroleum use by 50% by 2030. It identifies a 'Half the Oil' (HtO) Pathway that distributes reductions across travel demand management, vehicle efficiency, and alternative fuel deployment. While existing policies are projected to reduce consumption by 24% in California and 8% in Oregon and Washington by 2030, achieving the 50% target requires extending and accelerating these measures. The analysis finds that relying on a single category of strategy is insufficient to meet the target, and that Washington faces greater challenges due to a lack of enforceable alternative fuel and zero-emission vehicle policies.