Pakistan Low Carbon Scenario Analysis: GHG Reference Case Projection - Briefing Note

This briefing note presents a greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reference case projection for Pakistan, developed by the International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD) and the Energy Research Centre of the Netherlands (ECN). The reference case establishes a business-as-usual (BAU) baseline of historical emissions from 2000 to 2012/13 and projects annual emissions to 2030 to assess the potential of future low-carbon development options.

• In 2012, Pakistan's total GHG emissions were estimated at 365 MtCO2e. The agriculture sector was the largest contributor at 165 Mt (42%), followed by industry at 63 Mt (19%), electricity at 40 Mt (2%), transport at 35 Mt (3%), and residential and commercial energy at 29 Mt (3%). Other contributors included fossil fuel production (12 Mt), LULUCF (10 Mt), and waste (10 Mt).
• The reference case projection assumes an average annual GDP growth rate of 6% between 2015 and 2030, which is lower than the 8% target specified in Pakistan's Vision 2025. The model uses a simple accounting approach to extrapolate existing trends in energy end-uses and industrial production rather than modeling individual policies.
• Sensitivity analysis indicates that GDP growth is a primary driver of future emissions. A 'very high growth' scenario, simulating a condition where all planned projects are built and growth is spurred by the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), would result in a 36% increase in 2030 emissions (+278 MtCO2e) compared to the baseline. Conversely, a GDP growth scenario 2% lower than the reference case would decrease 2030 emissions by 17% (-131 MtCO2e).
• Variations in autonomous energy efficiency improvements (AEEI) have a smaller impact on 2030 emissions than GDP growth. A 'Low AEEI' scenario (reducing efficiency improvements by 50%) would increase emissions by 3% (+20 MtCO2e), while a 'High AEEI' scenario (increasing improvements by 50%) would decrease emissions by 3% (-19 MtCO2e).

APA

Stiebert, S. (2016). Pakistan Low Carbon Scenario Analysis: GHG Reference Case Projection - Briefing Note. Climate and Development Knowledge Network. http://cdkn.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/Pakistan-GHG-Emissions-Reference-Case-Briefing-Note-Oct-27.pdf

Chicago

Stiebert, Seton. Pakistan Low Carbon Scenario Analysis: GHG Reference Case Projection - Briefing Note. Climate and Development Knowledge Network, 2016. http://cdkn.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/Pakistan-GHG-Emissions-Reference-Case-Briefing-Note-Oct-27.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Stiebert |first1=Seton |title=Pakistan Low Carbon Scenario Analysis: GHG Reference Case Projection - Briefing Note |publisher=Climate and Development Knowledge Network |date=August 2016 |url=http://cdkn.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/Pakistan-GHG-Emissions-Reference-Case-Briefing-Note-Oct-27.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{stiebert2016pakistan, author = {Stiebert, Seton}, title = {{Pakistan Low Carbon Scenario Analysis: GHG Reference Case Projection - Briefing Note}}, institution = {Climate and Development Knowledge Network}, year = {2016}, month = aug, url = {http://cdkn.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/Pakistan-GHG-Emissions-Reference-Case-Briefing-Note-Oct-27.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }