Pakistan Low Carbon Scenario Analysis: GHG Reference Case Projection - Briefing Note

The document establishes a business-as-usual (BAU) GHG emission reference case for Pakistan, projecting emissions from 2000 to 2030. It identifies agriculture as the largest emission source and analyzes how variations in GDP growth and autonomous energy efficiency improvements (AEEI) impact future emission levels. The reference case assumes an average annual GDP growth rate of 6% between 2015 and 2030.

• In 2012, Pakistan's total GHG emissions were estimated at 365 MtCO2e, with the agriculture sector being the largest contributor at 165 Mt (42% of the total). Other significant contributors included industry (63 Mt), electricity (40 Mt), and transport (35 Mt).
• The reference case projection assumes an average annual GDP growth rate of 6% between 2015 and 2030, which is lower than the 8% target set in Pakistan's Vision 2025.
• GDP growth is a primary driver of emissions; a scenario with 3% higher GDP growth (modeling a condition where the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) substantially spurs growth) would increase 2030 emissions by 36% (+278 MtCO2e) relative to the baseline.
• Variations in autonomous energy efficiency improvements (AEEI) have a smaller impact on 2030 emissions than GDP growth, with a high AEEI scenario (+50%) resulting in a 3% decrease (-19 MtCO2e) and a low AEEI scenario (-50%) resulting in a 3% increase (+20 MtCO2e).

APA

Stiebert, S. (2016). Pakistan Low Carbon Scenario Analysis: GHG Reference Case Projection - Briefing Note. Climate and Development Knowledge Network. http://cdkn.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/Pakistan-GHG-Emissions-Reference-Case-Briefing-Note-Oct-27.pdf

Chicago

Stiebert, Seton. Pakistan Low Carbon Scenario Analysis: GHG Reference Case Projection - Briefing Note. Climate and Development Knowledge Network, 2016. http://cdkn.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/Pakistan-GHG-Emissions-Reference-Case-Briefing-Note-Oct-27.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Stiebert |first1=Seton |title=Pakistan Low Carbon Scenario Analysis: GHG Reference Case Projection - Briefing Note |publisher=Climate and Development Knowledge Network |date=August 2016 |url=http://cdkn.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/Pakistan-GHG-Emissions-Reference-Case-Briefing-Note-Oct-27.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{stiebert2016pakistan, author = {Stiebert, Seton}, title = {{Pakistan Low Carbon Scenario Analysis: GHG Reference Case Projection - Briefing Note}}, institution = {Climate and Development Knowledge Network}, year = {2016}, month = aug, url = {http://cdkn.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/Pakistan-GHG-Emissions-Reference-Case-Briefing-Note-Oct-27.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }