Shifting Diets for a Sustainable Food Future

The document argues that global diets are converging toward resource-intensive Western styles, which threatens environmental sustainability and human health. Using the GlobAgri model, the authors demonstrate that reducing calorie and protein overconsumption among wealthy populations can significantly spare agricultural land and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The paper introduces the 'Shift Wheel' framework to help the food industry implement these dietary changes through behavioral and marketing strategies.

• The world faces a "food gap" of approximately 70 percent between crop calories available in 2006 and the expected demand in 2050, driven by population growth and a convergence toward Western-style diets high in calories and animal-based foods.
• Relying solely on increased agricultural production to close the food gap would require crop yields to grow one-third faster than they did during the Green Revolution to avoid clearing more natural ecosystems.
• Animal-based foods are significantly more resource-intensive than plant-based foods; in 2009, they accounted for over 75 percent of global agricultural land use and about two-thirds of production-related greenhouse gas emissions, while providing only 37 percent of total protein consumed.
• Beef is identified as one of the most inefficient foods to produce, with only 1 percent of gross cattle feed calories and 4 percent of ingested protein converted into human-edible calories and protein, respectively.
• The average American diet in 2009 required nearly one hectare of agricultural land and emitted 1.4 tons of CO2e from production, nearly double the world average. Animal-based foods drove nearly 90 percent of this land use and 85 percent of these emissions.
• The 'Ambitious Animal Protein Reduction' scenario, applied to nearly 2 billion people, could spare 640 million hectares of agricultural land (including 500 million hectares of pasture) and avoid 168 billion tons of CO2e from land-use change.
• Reducing beef consumption specifically can have significant impacts; the 'Ambitious Beef Reduction' scenario could spare roughly 300 million hectares of pasture, an amount similar to the total pasture converted from other lands since 1961.
• Implementing the 'Ambitious Animal Protein Reduction' scenario could reduce the 2050 food gap by 30 percent, based on the assumption that 25 percent of all crops will be dedicated to animal feed by 2050.
• The document recommends that governments and food industry actors set quantifiable targets to reduce animal-based protein and beef consumption, align government policies to promote sustainable diets, and increase funding for evidence-based diet-shifting strategies.

APA

Ranganathan, J., Vennard, D., Waite, R., Dumas, P., Lipinski, B., & Searchinger, T. (2016). Shifting Diets for a Sustainable Food Future. World Resources Institute. https://wriorg.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/Shifting_Diets_for_a_Sustainable_Food_Future_1.pdf

Chicago

Ranganathan, Janet, Daniel Vennard, Richard Waite, Patrice Dumas, Brian Lipinski, and Tim Searchinger. Shifting Diets for a Sustainable Food Future. World Resources Institute, 2016. https://wriorg.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/Shifting_Diets_for_a_Sustainable_Food_Future_1.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Ranganathan |first1=Janet |last2=Vennard |first2=Daniel |last3=Waite |first3=Richard |last4=Dumas |first4=Patrice |last5=Lipinski |first5=Brian |last6=Searchinger |first6=Tim |title=Shifting Diets for a Sustainable Food Future |publisher=World Resources Institute |date=April 2016 |url=https://wriorg.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/Shifting_Diets_for_a_Sustainable_Food_Future_1.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{ranganathan2016shifting, author = {Ranganathan, Janet and Vennard, Daniel and Waite, Richard and Dumas, Patrice and Lipinski, Brian and Searchinger, Tim}, title = {{Shifting Diets for a Sustainable Food Future}}, institution = {World Resources Institute}, year = {2016}, month = apr, url = {https://wriorg.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/Shifting_Diets_for_a_Sustainable_Food_Future_1.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }