Pakistan Low Carbon Scenario Analysis: Project Summary Document

This executive summary describes a project commissioned by the Climate and Development Knowledge Network (CDKN) to establish a greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reference case and identify mitigation options for Pakistan. The project aimed to improve the evidence base for national climate planning, such as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), as the previous complete emissions inventory was nearly 20 years old at the time of the study. The analysis includes a baseline projection of emissions to 2030 and a sectoral evaluation of low-carbon development options across agriculture, forestry, energy, industry, transport, and waste.

• In 2012, Pakistan's total GHG emissions were estimated at 365 MtCO2e, with the agriculture sector being the largest contributor at 165 Mt (approximately 42% of national emissions).
• The agriculture sector's emissions are heavily driven by enteric fermentation, which accounts for more than 60% of the sector's emissions, although this specific area was difficult to quantify during initial screening due to data uncertainties.
• The forestry sector has experienced a net loss of forest between 1990 and 2015, driven by population expansion, grazing, illegal harvesting, land use change, and a demand for fuel wood that exceeds supply.
• In the energy supply sector, the project identified eight quantified mitigation options with a total potential reduction of 34.72 MtCO2e by 2030; large-scale hydel power offers the highest reduction at 10.62 MtCO2e.
• The industrial sector contributed approximately 18% of GHG emissions in 2012 (60 MtCO2e), and the project identified mitigation options that could reduce sector emissions by 28.4 MtCO2e by 2030, with the cement industry offering the highest potential reduction of 14.7 MtCO2e.
• The transport sector contributed roughly 11% of emissions in 2012, and its poor performance is estimated to cost the national economy up to 4% of GDP annually.
• Sensitivity analysis shows that GDP growth is a primary driver of emissions; a 3% increase in GDP growth over the baseline would result in a 36% increase in 2030 emissions (+278 MtCO2e), while a 2% decrease in GDP growth would reduce emissions by 17% (-131 MtCO2e).

APA

Climate and Development Knowledge Network (2016). Pakistan Low Carbon Scenario Analysis: Project Summary Document. http://cdkn.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/Learning-Paper-Pakistan-Low-Carbon-Scenario-Analysis-1.pdf

Chicago

Climate and Development Knowledge Network. Pakistan Low Carbon Scenario Analysis: Project Summary Document. 2016. http://cdkn.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/Learning-Paper-Pakistan-Low-Carbon-Scenario-Analysis-1.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Climate and Development Knowledge Network |title=Pakistan Low Carbon Scenario Analysis: Project Summary Document |date=October 2016 |url=http://cdkn.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/Learning-Paper-Pakistan-Low-Carbon-Scenario-Analysis-1.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{climateanddevelopmentknowledgenetwork2016pakistan, author = {{Climate and Development Knowledge Network}}, title = {{Pakistan Low Carbon Scenario Analysis: Project Summary Document}}, institution = {Climate and Development Knowledge Network}, year = {2016}, month = oct, url = {http://cdkn.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/Learning-Paper-Pakistan-Low-Carbon-Scenario-Analysis-1.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }