Pakistan Low Carbon Scenario Analysis: Project Summary Document

The project developed a 2012 base year emissions inventory and projections to 2030 for Pakistan, identifying that emissions are expected to grow significantly without additional intervention. It analyzed mitigation options across agriculture, forestry, energy, industry, transport, and waste, concluding that implementing these measures could reduce emissions by over 100 megatonnes. A sensitivity analysis highlighted that GDP growth is a primary driver of future emissions, with higher growth rates leading to substantially higher GHG levels.

• In 2012, Pakistan's total GHG emissions were 365 MtCO2e, with the agriculture sector being the largest contributor at 165 Mt (42%), followed by industry at 63 Mt (19%).
• The agriculture sector's emissions are heavily driven by enteric fermentation, which accounts for more than 60% of the sector's total emissions.
• Five cost-effective and immediately implementable agricultural mitigation options were identified, with agroforestry practices offering the highest reduction potential at 8.4 MtCO2e by 2030.
• Forestry mitigation options, specifically the implementation of agroforestry practices, preservation of conifer forest land, and community-based forest management, could lead to a total sectoral reduction of 21.7 MtCO2e by 2030.
• In the energy supply sector, large-scale hydel (10.62 MtCO2e) and the reduction of power transmission and distribution losses (8.28 MtCO2e) are the most significant potential sources of GHG reductions by 2030.
• Industrial mitigation efforts, particularly in the cement sector through shifting to high-efficiency multi-stage dry kilns, could reduce emissions by 14.7 MtCO2e by 2030.
• The transport sector's most impactful mitigation measure is the introduction of efficiency norms for passenger cars, taxis, and vans, which could reduce emissions by 7.45 MtCO2e by 2030.
• Sensitivity analysis shows that GDP growth strongly influences emissions; a 3% increase in GDP growth above the baseline would result in a 36% increase in 2030 emissions (+278 MtCO2e), while a 2% decrease in GDP growth would reduce emissions by 17% (-131 MtCO2e).

APA

Climate and Development Knowledge Network (2016). Pakistan Low Carbon Scenario Analysis: Project Summary Document. http://cdkn.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/Learning-Paper-Pakistan-Low-Carbon-Scenario-Analysis-1.pdf

Chicago

Climate and Development Knowledge Network. Pakistan Low Carbon Scenario Analysis: Project Summary Document. 2016. http://cdkn.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/Learning-Paper-Pakistan-Low-Carbon-Scenario-Analysis-1.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Climate and Development Knowledge Network |title=Pakistan Low Carbon Scenario Analysis: Project Summary Document |date=October 2016 |url=http://cdkn.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/Learning-Paper-Pakistan-Low-Carbon-Scenario-Analysis-1.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{climateanddevelopmentknowledgenetwork2016pakistan, author = {{Climate and Development Knowledge Network}}, title = {{Pakistan Low Carbon Scenario Analysis: Project Summary Document}}, institution = {Climate and Development Knowledge Network}, year = {2016}, month = oct, url = {http://cdkn.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/Learning-Paper-Pakistan-Low-Carbon-Scenario-Analysis-1.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }