Pathways to 1.5°C

RMI's briefing outlines a market-driven pathway to limit global temperature increases to 1.5°C by the end of the century. The analysis suggests that a nearly 100 percent renewable energy system is feasible by the mid-2050s if the adoption of clean energy follows the disruptive S-curve patterns seen in previous industrial revolutions, such as the rise of the automobile.

• RMI concludes that a global energy system powered nearly 100 percent by renewable energy is achievable by the mid-2050s. This feasibility is based on the assumption that clean energy technologies will follow market diffusion trends similar to previous disruptive technologies like cell phones and automobiles, supported by high levels of electrification and energy efficiency.
• The transition to a 1.5°C target requires a dramatic acceleration of the energy transition and deep changes in agriculture and land use. This is necessary because current pledges from Paris Agreement nations are projected to lead to a temperature rise of 2.9 to 3.4°C this century.
• Renewable energy costs are expected to continue declining due to scaling production and improvements in design and materials science. Specifically, rooftop and utility-scale solar prices were projected to drop nearly 30 percent by 2020.
• The agricultural, forestry, and land-use (AFOLU) sectors must be addressed to contain climate change, as they emit potent greenhouse gases like methane and nitrous oxide. RMI identifies five high-impact measures—biomass pyrolysis, conservation agriculture, grazing management, beef consumption reduction, and afforestation—that could make these sectors net carbon dioxide sinks by mid-century.
• Developing countries are critical to the global energy transition as they build new infrastructure. 47 members of the Climate Vulnerable Forum have pledged to transition to 100 percent renewable energy between 2030 and 2050, potentially leapfrogging traditional energy systems using hybrid distributed and centralized grids.
• The current renewable energy revolution is being led by early adopters including Denmark, Germany, California, and Hawaii. Significant growth is also occurring in China and India, where solar PV growth rates in 2015 were approximately 300 percent and 137 percent, respectively.

APA

RMI (2016). Pathways to 1.5°C. https://rmi.org/resources/pathways-1-5c/

Chicago

RMI. Pathways to 1.5°C. 2016. https://rmi.org/resources/pathways-1-5c/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=RMI |title=Pathways to 1.5°C |date=8 December 2016 |url=https://rmi.org/resources/pathways-1-5c/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{rmi2016pathways, author = {{RMI}}, title = {{Pathways to 1.5°C}}, institution = {RMI}, year = {2016}, month = dec, url = {https://rmi.org/resources/pathways-1-5c/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }