BEYOND PARIS: USING CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS TO MANAGE RISK

The document analyzes how two climate scenarios, Radical Emissions Reduction (RER) and High-end Climate Change (HCC), impact four Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the stability of Saudi Arabia and Nigeria. Under RER, the transition to meet Paris Agreement targets may trigger food-versus-fuel conflicts, gender-based violence from biofuel-driven displacement, and geopolitical instability in oil-dependent states. Conversely, the HCC scenario suggests that climate-driven agricultural failure and water scarcity would exacerbate armed conflicts, global inequality, and the influence of extremist groups. The authors argue that the short-term geopolitical costs of rapid climate action must be integrated into national policy formulation to manage risks effectively.

• The Radical Emissions Reduction (RER) scenario, aimed at meeting the Paris Agreement, could create significant security and development risks, including increased competition over land for food and bioenergy, gender-based violence resulting from population displacements caused by biofuel production, and a higher risk of nuclear proliferation due to the rapid expansion of nuclear power.
• Under the RER scenario, oil-producing nations face divergent outcomes: Saudi Arabia could experience a regime collapse due to declining oil revenues, though it has a window to transition to a solar-based economy; Nigeria may see the loss of oil revenues drive inequality and conflict, but also provide an opportunity to reduce corruption and diversify its economic portfolio.
• The High-end Climate Change (HCC) scenario would likely hinder the achievement of SDGs through agricultural adaptation failures leading to food shortages, increased armed conflicts, and geopolitical disorder that disrupts energy production, such as hydropower being drained by lower precipitation.
• In the HCC scenario, Saudi Arabia might maintain regime stability through continued oil revenues, which could enable the spread of Wahhabism, though droughts and heat could still incite protests; in Nigeria, deteriorating water access would likely increase resource conflicts and the influence of extremist groups like Boko Haram.

APA

hallding, K., barquet, K., carlsen, H., hegre, H., von uexkül, N., & nicoson, C. (2016). BEYOND PARIS: USING CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS TO MANAGE RISK. Stockholm Environment Institute. https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/SEI-2016ForumPolicyBriefNo5.pdf

Chicago

hallding, karl, karina barquet, henrik carlsen, håvard hegre, nina von uexkül, and christie nicoson. BEYOND PARIS: USING CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS TO MANAGE RISK. Stockholm Environment Institute, 2016. https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/SEI-2016ForumPolicyBriefNo5.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=hallding |first1=karl |last2=barquet |first2=karina |last3=carlsen |first3=henrik |last4=hegre |first4=håvard |last5=von uexkül |first5=nina |last6=nicoson |first6=christie |title=BEYOND PARIS: USING CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS TO MANAGE RISK |publisher=Stockholm Environment Institute |date=May 2016 |url=https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/SEI-2016ForumPolicyBriefNo5.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{hallding2016beyond, author = {hallding, karl and barquet, karina and carlsen, henrik and hegre, håvard and von uexkül, nina and nicoson, christie}, title = {{BEYOND PARIS: USING CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS TO MANAGE RISK}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2016}, month = may, url = {https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/SEI-2016ForumPolicyBriefNo5.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }