BEYOND PARIS: USING CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS TO MANAGE RISK

This policy brief describes the outcomes of two workshops held during the 2016 SIPRI Forum on Security and Development. The workshops used two contrasting climate scenarios—Radical Emissions Reduction (RER) and High-end Climate Change (HCC)—to analyze risks to security, development, and the implementation of four specific Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs): food security (SDG 2), gender equality (SDG 5), clean energy (SDG 7), and inequality (SDG 10).

• The Radical Emissions Reduction (RER) scenario, while aligned with the Paris Agreement, presents significant risks to development and security. These include increased competition over land for food and bioenergy affecting SDG 2, and a rise in gender-based violence due to population displacements from large-scale biofuel production affecting SDG 5. Additionally, the scenario could lead to 'food-versus-fuel conflicts', risks of nuclear proliferation from rapid nuclear power expansion, and reduced Official Development Assistance due to the costs of mitigation efforts.
• The High-end Climate Change (HCC) scenario poses direct threats to SDG implementation through environmental and geopolitical instability. Agricultural adaptation difficulties could lead to food shortages and conflict (SDG 2), while increased armed conflicts and poor economic growth would hinder women's opportunities (SDG 5). Geopolitical disorder and extreme weather could disrupt energy production, such as hydropower (SDG 7), and volatile food prices would likely increase global inequalities (SDG 10).
• The two scenarios produce divergent outcomes for oil-producing nations. In Saudi Arabia, the RER scenario could lead to regime collapse due to declining oil revenues, though it offers a window to transition to solar energy; conversely, the HCC scenario might preserve the regime through continued oil revenues but could cause instability via droughts and migration. In Nigeria, the RER scenario is seen as an opportunity to diversify the economy and reduce corruption, whereas the HCC scenario suggests deteriorating water access and increased resource conflicts that could empower extremist groups like Boko Haram.
• The authors conclude that the short-term geopolitical costs of meeting global climate targets may exceed long-term benefits in certain contexts. They argue that national climate policies must consider these costs and that policy portfolios should be robust enough to manage risks across a range of plausible developments.

APA

hallding, K., barquet, K., carlsen, H., hegre, H., von uexkül, N., & nicoson, C. (2016). BEYOND PARIS: USING CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS TO MANAGE RISK. Stockholm Environment Institute. https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/SEI-2016ForumPolicyBriefNo5.pdf

Chicago

hallding, karl, karina barquet, henrik carlsen, håvard hegre, nina von uexkül, and christie nicoson. BEYOND PARIS: USING CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS TO MANAGE RISK. Stockholm Environment Institute, 2016. https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/SEI-2016ForumPolicyBriefNo5.pdf.

Wikipedia

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BibTeX

@techreport{hallding2016beyond, author = {hallding, karl and barquet, karina and carlsen, henrik and hegre, håvard and von uexkül, nina and nicoson, christie}, title = {{BEYOND PARIS: USING CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS TO MANAGE RISK}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2016}, month = may, url = {https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/SEI-2016ForumPolicyBriefNo5.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }