NATIONAL REPORTS ON ENERGY EFFICIENCY POLICY SCENARIO ANALYSIS FOR THE BUILDINGS AND TRANSPORT SECTORS

The document provides executive summaries of national reports for Bulgaria, Estonia, Germany, Greece, Italy, Serbia, and the UK. It evaluates various energy efficiency scenarios—including Business as Usual (BAU) and those incorporating the impact of socio-economic barriers—using LEAP modelling and a Decision Support Tool (DST). The analysis consistently shows that while ambitious energy efficiency measures can meet EU targets, the presence of socio-economic barriers significantly reduces potential energy savings and GHG reductions across most studied countries and sectors.

• In Bulgaria, the building sector's BAU scenario fails to meet the EU 2030 energy saving target, achieving only 19.2% savings compared to the EU BAU PRIMES baseline. While an 'ideal' energy efficiency scenario without barriers would reach 38.7% savings, the inclusion of barriers drops this figure to 27.3%, indicating that "barriers would prevent most of the target energy savings."
• Estonia's transport sector BAU scenario projects an 18% increase in energy demand from 2010 to 2030, failing national and EU targets. An Energy Efficiency (EE T0) scenario incorporating fuel-efficient vehicles, eco-driving, urban planning, modal shift, and freight demand management would reduce transport energy consumption by 7.3% by 2030 compared to 2010, meeting targets.
• In Germany, scenario analysis indicates that if socio-economic barriers are accounted for, EU energy and climate targets will likely be missed for both buildings and transport (EE-B1 and T1 scenarios). However, targets can be achieved if policies are enacted to effectively overcome most existing barriers.
• For Greece, the EE B3 scenario for buildings (combining building shell improvement, efficient heating, and efficient appliances) results in the lowest final energy consumption for 2020 (5.623Mtoe) and 2030 (5.281Mtoe). In the transport sector, the EE T2 scenario (electric/hybrid vehicles, modal shift, and more efficient vehicles) yields the lowest energy consumption and GHG emissions for both 2020 and 2030.
• In Italy, the analysis suggests that EU energy and climate targets will likely be missed in the building sector if barriers are included in calculations, though the transport sector is expected to meet them. The residential sector could almost achieve its targets if policies effectively overcome most existing barriers.
• In Serbia, simultaneous application of all energy efficiency measures in the residential building subsector without barriers would lead to 23% savings by 2030, but this drops to 15.2% when barriers are included. In the transport sector, simultaneous measures without barriers would reduce energy demand by 23% by 2030, falling to 14.5% when barriers are included.
• The UK's best-case energy efficiency scenarios (EE-B0 for buildings and EE-T0 for transport) align with the fifth carbon budget (2016) central estimate for the 2050 target of reducing emissions by at least 80% relative to 1990 levels. For 2030, total building and transport sector EE scenarios are 11-19% and 24-38% below the EU GHG non-ETS targets, respectively, while BAU cases fall short by 16% and 24%.

APA

Peterson, K., Konidari, P., Flessa, A., Mavraki, A.-N., Mavraki, E.-D., Croci, E., Pontoni, F., Camaldo, S., Nikolaev, A., Radulov, L., Gupta, R., Gregg, M., Barnfield, L., Thema, J., Venjakob, M., Zivkovic, M., Ivezic, D., Madzarevic, A., Ivic, M., ... Kuusk, K. (2016). NATIONAL REPORTS ON ENERGY EFFICIENCY POLICY SCENARIO ANALYSIS FOR THE BUILDINGS AND TRANSPORT SECTORS. Stockholm Environment Institute. https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/d-4.1-summary.pdf

Chicago

Peterson, Kaja, Popi Konidari, Anna Flessa, Aliki-Nefeli Mavraki, Eleni-Danai Mavraki, Eduardo Croci, Federico Pontoni, et al. NATIONAL REPORTS ON ENERGY EFFICIENCY POLICY SCENARIO ANALYSIS FOR THE BUILDINGS AND TRANSPORT SECTORS. Stockholm Environment Institute, 2016. https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/d-4.1-summary.pdf.

Wikipedia

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BibTeX

@techreport{peterson2016national, author = {Peterson, Kaja and Konidari, Popi and Flessa, Anna and Mavraki, Aliki-Nefeli and Mavraki, Eleni-Danai and Croci, Eduardo and Pontoni, Federico and Camaldo, Silvio and Nikolaev, Angel and Radulov, Lulin and Gupta, Rajat and Gregg, Matt and Barnfield, Laura and Thema, Johannes and Venjakob, Maike and Zivkovic, Marija and Ivezic, Dejan and Madzarevic, Aleksandar and Ivic, Milica and Tanasijevic, Milos and Kirsimaa, Kerli and Jüssi, Mari and Kuusk, Kalle}, title = {{NATIONAL REPORTS ON ENERGY EFFICIENCY POLICY SCENARIO ANALYSIS FOR THE BUILDINGS AND TRANSPORT SECTORS}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2016}, month = dec, url = {https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/d-4.1-summary.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }