NATIONAL REPORTS ON ENERGY EFFICIENCY POLICY SCENARIO ANALYSIS FOR THE BUILDINGS AND TRANSPORT SECTORS

This report summarizes the results of Work Package 4 (WP4) of the HERON project, which conducted forward-looking scenario analyses of energy efficiency policies in the buildings and transport sectors across seven EU countries. Using LEAP modelling software and a Decision Support Tool (DST), the project evaluated Business as Usual (BAU) scenarios against various energy efficiency (EE) scenarios to determine if national targets for 2020 and 2030 could be met and how socio-economic barriers impact these goals.

• In Bulgaria, the building sector's BAU scenario fails to meet the EU 2030 energy saving target, achieving only 19.2% savings compared to the EU BAU PRIMES baseline. While an 'ideal' energy efficiency scenario (ignoring barriers) would reach 38.7% savings, the inclusion of barriers reduces this to 27.3%, suggesting that barriers prevent most of the target savings.
• Estonia's transport sector BAU scenario projects an 18% increase in energy demand from 2010 to 2030, failing national and EU targets. However, an Energy Efficiency (EE T0) scenario incorporating fuel-efficient vehicles, eco-driving, urban planning, modal shift, and freight demand management would reduce transport energy consumption by 7.3% by 2030 compared to 2010.
• In Germany, scenario analysis indicates that if socio-economic barriers are accounted for, the country will likely miss EU energy and climate targets (specifically in the EE-B1 and T1 scenarios). Conversely, targets can be achieved if policies are enacted to effectively overcome most existing barriers.
• For Greece, the EE B3 scenario for buildings (focusing on building shell improvement, efficient heating, and efficient appliances) resulted in the lowest final energy consumption for 2020 (5.623 Mtoe) and 2030 (5.281 Mtoe). In the transport sector, the EE T2 scenario (prioritizing electric/hybrid vehicles, modal shift, and more efficient vehicles) achieved the lowest energy consumption and GHG emissions for both 2020 and 2030.
• In Italy, the analysis suggests that EU energy and climate targets will likely be missed in the building sector if barriers are considered, though the transport sector is expected to meet them. The residential sector could nearly achieve its targets if policies effectively overcome most existing barriers.
• Serbia's building sector analysis identifies 'Building shell improvement' as the technology with the highest potential for energy savings and the largest number of barriers. In the transport sector, the 'Modal shift' sub-scenario was found to achieve the highest energy savings. Simultaneous application of all transport measures with barriers reduces energy demand by 14.5% compared to the baseline by 2030.
• The UK's best-case energy efficiency scenarios (EE-B0 for buildings and EE-T0 for transport) align with the fifth carbon budget (2016) central estimate for a cost-effective path to 2050 targets. The BAU case for buildings is 16% short of the EU GHG non-ETS 2030 target, while the BAU case for transport is 24% short.

APA

Peterson, K., Konidari, P., Flessa, A., Mavraki, A.-N., Mavraki, E.-D., Croci, E., Pontoni, F., Camaldo, S., Nikolaev, A., Radulov, L., Gupta, R., Gregg, M., Barnfield, L., Thema, J., Venjakob, M., Zivkovic, M., Ivezic, D., Madzarevic, A., Ivic, M., ... Kuusk, K. (2016). NATIONAL REPORTS ON ENERGY EFFICIENCY POLICY SCENARIO ANALYSIS FOR THE BUILDINGS AND TRANSPORT SECTORS. Stockholm Environment Institute. https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/d-4.1-summary.pdf

Chicago

Peterson, Kaja, Popi Konidari, Anna Flessa, Aliki-Nefeli Mavraki, Eleni-Danai Mavraki, Eduardo Croci, Federico Pontoni, et al. NATIONAL REPORTS ON ENERGY EFFICIENCY POLICY SCENARIO ANALYSIS FOR THE BUILDINGS AND TRANSPORT SECTORS. Stockholm Environment Institute, 2016. https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/d-4.1-summary.pdf.

Wikipedia

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BibTeX

@techreport{peterson2016national, author = {Peterson, Kaja and Konidari, Popi and Flessa, Anna and Mavraki, Aliki-Nefeli and Mavraki, Eleni-Danai and Croci, Eduardo and Pontoni, Federico and Camaldo, Silvio and Nikolaev, Angel and Radulov, Lulin and Gupta, Rajat and Gregg, Matt and Barnfield, Laura and Thema, Johannes and Venjakob, Maike and Zivkovic, Marija and Ivezic, Dejan and Madzarevic, Aleksandar and Ivic, Milica and Tanasijevic, Milos and Kirsimaa, Kerli and Jüssi, Mari and Kuusk, Kalle}, title = {{NATIONAL REPORTS ON ENERGY EFFICIENCY POLICY SCENARIO ANALYSIS FOR THE BUILDINGS AND TRANSPORT SECTORS}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2016}, month = dec, url = {https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/d-4.1-summary.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }