Pakistan Low Carbon Scenario Analysis: GHG Reference Case Projection - Report

This report develops a greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reference case for Pakistan, projecting a rise in emissions from 365 Mt CO2e in 2012 to 768 Mt CO2e by 2030 under a business-as-usual scenario. The analysis identifies GDP growth as the primary driver of emissions, with potential increases linked to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). While the electricity sector is expected to integrate more wind and solar energy, overall demand will likely exceed supply. The report highlights significant data gaps in the waste and agriculture sectors and compares its findings with the NEEDS assessment, noting that autonomous energy efficiency improvements provide a modest reduction in projected emissions.

• The reference case projects that total GHG emissions in Pakistan will grow from 365 Mt CO2e in 2012 to 768 Mt CO2e by 2030, representing an average growth rate of 3.7%.
• GDP growth is identified as the most significant driver of emission projections. A high GDP growth scenario (2% higher than the reference case) would increase 2030 emissions by 22% (+172 Mt CO2e), while a very high growth scenario (+3% GDP growth), potentially spurred by the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), would increase emissions by 36% (+278 Mt CO2e).
• The electricity sector is expected to see a significant supply of new renewable energy from wind and solar, although demand is projected to continue to outstrip supply.
• Autonomous energy efficiency improvements (AEEI) have a relatively small impact on total emissions compared to GDP growth. A high AEEI scenario (+50% improvement) would reduce 2030 emissions by 3% (-19 Mt CO2e), while a low AEEI scenario (-50%) would increase them by 3% (+20 Mt CO2e).
• The waste sector contributes less than 5% of total emissions, with domestic and industrial wastewater being the largest sources. Industrial wastewater emissions are expected to grow at a rate greater than 8% per year.
• There are significant data gaps and uncertainties in the waste sector, particularly regarding methane correction factors (MCF) for wastewater, which have uncertainties exceeding ±100%.
• The reference case assumes a conservative average annual overall GDP growth rate of 6.1% from 2013 to 2020, noting that the 8% target in Pakistan's Vision 2025 may be difficult to achieve due to energy supply issues, low domestic investment, inflation, and budget deficits.
• The report notes a discrepancy between its projections and the NEEDS assessment; the LCS reference case is lower by 334 Mt CO2e in 2030, though this difference reduces to 241 Mt CO2e when accounting for 2012 emission estimates.

APA

Stiebert, S. (2016). Pakistan Low Carbon Scenario Analysis: GHG Reference Case Projection - Report. Climate and Development Knowledge Network. https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/Pakistan-GHG-Emissions-Reference-Case-Report-Oct-27.pdf

Chicago

Stiebert, Seton. Pakistan Low Carbon Scenario Analysis: GHG Reference Case Projection - Report. Climate and Development Knowledge Network, 2016. https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/Pakistan-GHG-Emissions-Reference-Case-Report-Oct-27.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Stiebert |first1=Seton |title=Pakistan Low Carbon Scenario Analysis: GHG Reference Case Projection - Report |publisher=Climate and Development Knowledge Network |date=September 2016 |url=https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/Pakistan-GHG-Emissions-Reference-Case-Report-Oct-27.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{stiebert2016pakistan, author = {Stiebert, Seton}, title = {{Pakistan Low Carbon Scenario Analysis: GHG Reference Case Projection - Report}}, institution = {Climate and Development Knowledge Network}, year = {2016}, month = sep, url = {https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/Pakistan-GHG-Emissions-Reference-Case-Report-Oct-27.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }