Pakistan Low Carbon Scenario Analysis: GHG Reference Case Projection - Report

The report establishes a business-as-usual (BAU) GHG emissions baseline for Pakistan, projecting total emissions to reach 768 Mt CO2e by 2030. Agriculture is identified as the largest emission source, accounting for over 40% of emissions in 2012. The energy sector is further divided into residential, commercial, industrial, transport, and electricity generation. The analysis highlights significant data gaps in agriculture, LULUCF, and waste sectors, and concludes that GDP growth is the primary driver of future emission levels, with a high-growth scenario potentially increasing 2030 emissions by 36% relative to the reference case.

• In 2012, total GHG emissions for Pakistan were estimated at 365 Mt CO2e, with the agriculture sector being the largest contributor at 165 Mt CO2e, representing 42% of the total.
• The reference case projects that total annual GHG emissions will increase from 365 Mt CO2e in 2012 to 768 Mt CO2e by 2030 under a business-as-usual scenario.
• The agriculture sector is the most significant source of emissions, contributing over 40% of total national emissions in 2012, with livestock enteric fermentation and manure management as primary drivers.
• The electricity sector is expected to face a persistent supply gap; while the shortage may nearly close by 2018, it is projected to increase again to 27 TWh by 2030.
• Transportation emissions are primarily driven by the growth of on-road passenger and freight vehicles, with an expected addition of more than 50 million new vehicles by 2030.
• The LULUCF sector is characterized by high uncertainty and a significant loss of forest cover, with an average deforestation rate estimated at 42,200 hectares per year between 1990 and 2015.
• GDP growth is the most critical driver of future emissions; a scenario with 3% higher GDP growth than the reference case would increase 2030 emissions by 36% (an additional 278 Mt CO2e).
• Autonomous energy efficiency improvements (AEEI) have a relatively small impact compared to GDP growth, with a 50% increase in AEEI resulting in only a 3% decrease in 2030 emissions.
• The waste sector is the smallest contributor, representing less than 5% of total emissions, with industrial wastewater identified as the fastest-growing source within that sector.

APA

Stiebert, S. (2016). Pakistan Low Carbon Scenario Analysis: GHG Reference Case Projection - Report. Climate and Development Knowledge Network. https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/Pakistan-GHG-Emissions-Reference-Case-Report-Oct-27.pdf

Chicago

Stiebert, Seton. Pakistan Low Carbon Scenario Analysis: GHG Reference Case Projection - Report. Climate and Development Knowledge Network, 2016. https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/Pakistan-GHG-Emissions-Reference-Case-Report-Oct-27.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Stiebert |first1=Seton |title=Pakistan Low Carbon Scenario Analysis: GHG Reference Case Projection - Report |publisher=Climate and Development Knowledge Network |date=September 2016 |url=https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/Pakistan-GHG-Emissions-Reference-Case-Report-Oct-27.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{stiebert2016pakistan, author = {Stiebert, Seton}, title = {{Pakistan Low Carbon Scenario Analysis: GHG Reference Case Projection - Report}}, institution = {Climate and Development Knowledge Network}, year = {2016}, month = sep, url = {https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/Pakistan-GHG-Emissions-Reference-Case-Report-Oct-27.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }