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Nigeria faces severe developmental challenges including endemic corruption, insecurity, and an overdependence on oil exports. Projections indicate that without intervention, Nigeria will have the highest number of poor people globally by 2050. The report proposes a 'Super Nigeria' scenario combining improvements in governance, human capital, infrastructure, agriculture, and economic diversification to potentially make Nigeria the fifth largest economy globally by 2050.

The paper assesses how the Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR) and the sustainability movement shape the industrialisation trajectory of the SADC region. It argues that while 4IR technologies offer opportunities for leapfrogging legacy industries and formalising the informal sector, they also risk creating high-tech enclaves, global monopolies, and 'gig-economy sweatshops'. The authors propose a reimagined strategy that integrates 4IR and green economy goals to achieve broad economic wellbeing rather than focusing solely on job creation.

The document argues that SADC countries face a significant infrastructure deficit and institutional weaknesses that hinder regional integration and economic recovery. It proposes the adoption of 'anticipatory governance' and a shift toward green, inclusive, and digitally enabled infrastructure to move away from national protectionism and fossil-fuel dependency. Using a STEEPV framework, the authors outline various future scenarios—ranging from 'SADC Solarpunk' (desirable) to 'Deep Collusion' (undesirable)—to stress-test current strategies and advocate for innovative blended financing and regional cooperation via the AfCFTA.

The report analyzes Egypt's path to 2050, highlighting critical risks from rapid population growth (projected to reach 150 million) and severe water shortages expected by 2025. It identifies systemic economic issues, including a large informal sector and high youth unemployment, alongside health crises driven by non-communicable diseases. Through the International Futures (IFs) platform, the authors simulate seven sectoral interventions—covering demography, economy, governance, energy, health, education, and agriculture—concluding that a combined policy push could nearly double the economy's size and significantly reduce extreme poverty by 2050.

The briefing analyzes the challenges facing WTO agriculture negotiations at MC12, noting that deep divisions among members on domestic support, market access, and public stockholding likely mean that substantive outcomes will be limited to work programs for post-conference talks. The author identifies a potential positive outcome regarding an exemption for World Food Programme (WFP) food purchases from export restrictions and suggests that some progress on transparency may be achievable, though substantive issues like trade-distorting subsidies in cotton remain unresolved.

The report analyzes the impact of different electric vehicle (EV) penetration scenarios in China—Pre-COVID-19, Current Policies, and 100% BEV—across two electricity decarbonization pathways. It concludes that while China's post-COVID-19 policies for new energy vehicles (NEVs) are positive, significant emission reductions in the light-duty vehicle (LDV) sector are only possible if coupled with a transformational shift to a low-carbon electricity sector. Without power sector decarbonization, even ambitious BEV scenarios would only reduce emissions by 9% to 13% by 2050 compared to pre-pandemic levels. To reach carbon neutrality by 2060, the report argues that a 100% BEV vehicle stock and a fully decarbonized power sector are required, which could reduce LDV emissions to zero and transport sector emissions by 790 MtCO2/yr by 2050.

The document outlines a project exploring the 'ripple effects' of deploying distance health and social care solutions. It specifically examines potential climate benefits from reduced transport and uses the SDG Synergies tool to identify conflicts and synergies with the UN Agenda 2030 goals, arguing that systematic, collaborative examination of these interactions improves policy effectiveness.

This briefing by the Stockholm Environment Institute explores how digital health and social care tools, such as Virtual Health Rooms (VHRs), can reduce carbon emissions and align with the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Using a case study of Storuman municipality in Sweden, the report estimates that VHRs can save approximately 31 tons of CO2 annually by reducing patient travel. It also details a co-production workshop that identified synergies between distance health solutions and SDGs related to health, climate action, responsible consumption, and public-private partnerships, advocating for a systemic, evidence-based approach to policy implementation to maximize benefits and mitigate trade-offs.

The report assesses the development prospects of the Horn of Africa, highlighting how governance failure, insecurity, and climate-driven food instability hinder progress. It uses the International Futures platform to project that without intervention, no country in the region will eliminate extreme poverty by 2030. The analysis identifies a critical 'youth bulge' and severe infrastructure deficits in energy, transport, and water. To counter these trends, the authors propose an 'Integrated Development Push' scenario combining improved governance, agricultural modernisation, and investments in human capital and basic infrastructure to boost regional GDP and reduce poverty by 2040.

The report finds that current G20 commitments put the world on a trajectory for 2.4°C of warming by 2100. While announced but non-formalised pledges could lower this to 2.1°C, only an 'enhanced ambition' scenario—where all G20 members align 2030 targets with 1.5°C pathways and commit to mid-century net zero—could limit warming to 1.7°C. The authors argue that G20 countries, accounting for 75% of global emissions, are uniquely positioned to close three-quarters of the temperature gap, provided they accelerate near-term action and developed nations ramp up financial support to developing countries.

The study evaluates six electricity generation scenarios for Kenya (2010-2040), finding that the 'Full Renewables' (FRE) and 'UN Agenda 2030 SDGs' (SDGs 2) scenarios offer the highest greenhouse gas abatement and lowest health impacts at the lowest costs. Under the SDGs and AU scenarios, GHG emissions are projected to be 99.7% and 97.6% lower, respectively, than the Vision 2030+Least Cost Power Development Plan (VLCPDP).

The report evaluates nine financing options for a Universal Basic Income Guarantee (UBIG) in South Africa, focusing on progressive tax measures. Key proposals include a Social Security Tax, a Resource Rent Tax, and the selective removal of tax credits for high earners. The analysis finds that a UBIG aligned with the Food Poverty Line (FPL) for 60% of the population could be fully financed by these measures. The report also models the impact of different implementation speeds on South Africa's national debt and primary balance, suggesting that the FPL grant is the most fiscally feasible over the medium term.

The report argues that deep decarbonization of transportation requires a diverse set of solutions across technology, policy, and behavior, as no single technology can address all subsectors. Key strategies include the deployment of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) for light-duty and short-haul freight, hydrogen and ammonia for heavy-duty and marine transport, and sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs) for aircraft. The authors emphasize that efficiency improvements are a critical near-term tool across all modes. A central policy recommendation is the adoption of a performance-based, adaptive framework, specifically a Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) transitioning to a Zero-Carbon Fuel Standard (ZCFS) by 2050, to allow various fuels and vehicles to compete while reducing overall carbon intensity. The report also highlights the daunting nature of infrastructure transitions and the uncertainty of consumer behavior and automated vehicle impacts.

The report argues that the NGFS's second set of 1.5°C scenarios are not aligned with the Paris Agreement and are unsustainable due to an over-reliance on fossil fuels, biomass, and carbon dioxide removal (CDR). It finds that these scenarios fail to account for the need to end fossil fuel expansion and rely on unproven technologies like Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) to justify slower phase-outs of oil, gas, and coal.

The document details a modeling framework combining EnergyPATHWAYS (EP) for demand-side stock accounting and the Regional Investment and Operations (RIO) model for supply-side least-cost optimization. It outlines nine scenarios for the U.S. energy transition, including a 'Zero CO2 2050' case and various electric vehicle (EV) adoption speeds. The methodology emphasizes high temporal and spatial resolution, co-optimizing electricity and fuel systems to meet economy-wide emissions constraints.

The report argues that stopping the expansion of fossil fuels is insufficient to meet the 1.5°C target of the Paris Agreement; instead, an active wind-down of existing production is required. It proposes specific annual decline rates for coal (9.5%), oil (8.5%), and gas (3.5%) between 2021 and 2030. The authors conclude that this transition is technically feasible because global solar and wind potential could meet primary energy demand more than 50 times over, ensuring 100% energy access without risking energy security.

The IEA Net Zero Scenario projects a massive expansion of solar and wind energy, with solar and wind together providing almost 70% of global electricity by 2050. It calls for an immediate end to new oil, gas, and unabated coal investments, forecasting a 90% decline in coal demand and a 275% decline in oil use by 2050. The transition relies heavily on the scaling of currently non-commercially viable technologies, including CCUS, hydrogen, and negative emission technologies (NETs), as well as a 60% increase in bioenergy use.

The document presents four science-based narrative scenarios for fishery conflicts occurring between 2030 and 2060. These scenarios are designed to address a gap in existing projections by incorporating broader societal trends alongside environmental stressors like climate change and overfishing. The scenarios focus on the North-East Atlantic, the East China Sea, the coast of West Africa, and the Arctic, serving as tools to enhance anticipatory governance for ocean security.

The report evaluates the Paterson Park Precinct's building infrastructure in Johannesburg, comparing a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario with a green building scenario across different climate pathways (RCP 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5). Using the SAVi tool and Copernicus Climate Change Service data, the analysis finds that green buildings significantly reduce life-cycle costs through lower energy and maintenance expenditures and reduced greenhouse gas emissions. Climate change primarily increases energy costs and GHG emissions for both scenarios, though the green design remains more cost-effective. Additionally, the report identifies solar PV installations as a highly profitable investment in South Africa, particularly when accounting for electricity price inflation.

The report finds that baseline projections for oil, gas, and coal production are significantly higher than the levels required to limit global warming to 1.5°C or 2°C. It highlights that the largest production increases are projected in the United States, Brazil, Iran, Canada, and Saudi Arabia. The analysis argues that a managed wind-down of production is necessary to avoid inequitable outcomes, as the projected production from high-income and low-dependence countries alone would exceed the 1.5°C-consistent global budget.