Closing the gap

The report finds that current G20 commitments put the world on a trajectory for 2.4°C of warming by 2100. While announced but non-formalised pledges could lower this to 2.1°C, only an 'enhanced ambition' scenario—where all G20 members align 2030 targets with 1.5°C pathways and commit to mid-century net zero—could limit warming to 1.7°C. The authors argue that G20 countries, accounting for 75% of global emissions, are uniquely positioned to close three-quarters of the temperature gap, provided they accelerate near-term action and developed nations ramp up financial support to developing countries.

• Current formally submitted nationally determined contributions (NDCs) and legally binding net zero commitments place the world on a trajectory for 2.4°C of warming by 2100.
• If G20 countries fully implement additional 2030 and net zero pledges that have been announced but not yet formalised in NDCs or binding targets, projected temperature rise in 2100 could drop to 2.1°C.
• An 'enhanced ambition' scenario, where all G20 members adopt mid-century net zero commitments and align NDCs with a 1.5°C pathway, could limit end-of-century global warming to 1.7°C, closing approximately 75% of the gap to the 1.5°C goal.
• There is a significant 2030 emissions gap of 23 GtCO2e between current submitted or announced levels and those consistent with a 1.5°C limit; this gap could be reduced by 64% if all G20 governments align their targets with 1.5°C domestic pathways.
• Many G20 net zero pledges are considered unrealistic because they require extremely steep emissions reductions after 2030, which contradicts feasible global modelling pathways.
• Several G20 members have submitted updated NDCs that are not meaningfully stronger than previous ones, or are effectively weaker; specifically, Brazil and Mexico submitted 2030 targets that are effectively weaker than previous commitments.
• The United Kingdom is the only G20 member currently on track for a 2030 domestic emissions reduction target that is considered 1.5°C aligned, although its current policies are still insufficient to meet that target.
• Achieving 1.5°C requires developed G20 countries to fulfill and exceed the commitment to mobilise $100 billion annually in climate finance for developing nations, as current flows are insufficient.

APA

Fyson, C., Geiges, A., Gidden, M., Srouji, J., & Schumer, C. (2021). Closing the gap. World Resources Institute. https://files.wri.org/d8/s3fs-public/2021-09/closing-the-gap-impact-g20-climate-commitments-limiting-global-temperature-rise-1-5c.pdf?VersionId=RlUJyvgmgnudRbZDDTG_x_nzcG57JMWd%22%20HYPERLINK%20%22https://files.wri.org/d8/s3fs-public/2021-09/closing-the-gap-impact-g20-climate-commitments-limiting-global-temperature-rise-1-5c.pdf?VersionId=RlUJyvgmgnudRbZDDTG_x_nzcG57JMWd

Chicago

Fyson, Claire, Andreas Geiges, Matthew Gidden, Jamal Srouji, and Clea Schumer. Closing the gap. World Resources Institute, 2021. https://files.wri.org/d8/s3fs-public/2021-09/closing-the-gap-impact-g20-climate-commitments-limiting-global-temperature-rise-1-5c.pdf?VersionId=RlUJyvgmgnudRbZDDTG_x_nzcG57JMWd%22%20HYPERLINK%20%22https://files.wri.org/d8/s3fs-public/2021-09/closing-the-gap-impact-g20-climate-commitments-limiting-global-temperature-rise-1-5c.pdf?VersionId=RlUJyvgmgnudRbZDDTG_x_nzcG57JMWd.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Fyson |first1=Claire |last2=Geiges |first2=Andreas |last3=Gidden |first3=Matthew |last4=Srouji |first4=Jamal |last5=Schumer |first5=Clea |title=Closing the gap |publisher=World Resources Institute |date=September 2021 |url=https://files.wri.org/d8/s3fs-public/2021-09/closing-the-gap-impact-g20-climate-commitments-limiting-global-temperature-rise-1-5c.pdf?VersionId=RlUJyvgmgnudRbZDDTG_x_nzcG57JMWd%22%20HYPERLINK%20%22https://files.wri.org/d8/s3fs-public/2021-09/closing-the-gap-impact-g20-climate-commitments-limiting-global-temperature-rise-1-5c.pdf?VersionId=RlUJyvgmgnudRbZDDTG_x_nzcG57JMWd |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{fyson2021closing, author = {Fyson, Claire and Geiges, Andreas and Gidden, Matthew and Srouji, Jamal and Schumer, Clea}, title = {{Closing the gap}}, institution = {World Resources Institute}, year = {2021}, month = sep, url = {https://files.wri.org/d8/s3fs-public/2021-09/closing-the-gap-impact-g20-climate-commitments-limiting-global-temperature-rise-1-5c.pdf?VersionId=RlUJyvgmgnudRbZDDTG_x_nzcG57JMWd%22%20HYPERLINK%20%22https://files.wri.org/d8/s3fs-public/2021-09/closing-the-gap-impact-g20-climate-commitments-limiting-global-temperature-rise-1-5c.pdf?VersionId=RlUJyvgmgnudRbZDDTG_x_nzcG57JMWd}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }