Assessing transition pathways to low-carbon electricity generation in Kenya: a hybrid approach using backcasting, socio-technical scenarios and energy system modelling

The study evaluates six electricity generation scenarios for Kenya (2010-2040), finding that the 'Full Renewables' (FRE) and 'UN Agenda 2030 SDGs' (SDGs 2) scenarios offer the highest greenhouse gas abatement and lowest health impacts at the lowest costs. Under the SDGs and AU scenarios, GHG emissions are projected to be 99.7% and 97.6% lower, respectively, than the Vision 2030+Least Cost Power Development Plan (VLCPDP).

• The study identifies the 'Full Renewables' (FRE) and 'UN Agenda 2030 SDGs' (SDGs 2) scenarios as the most effective for maximizing greenhouse gas reduction and minimizing human health impacts while maintaining low costs.
• Projected total electricity demand by 2040 is 57.4 thousand gigawatts-hours under the VLCPDP and low-carbon scenarios, which is 11.8% higher than the Business as Usual (BAU) scenario.
• GHG emissions under the SDGs and AU scenarios are projected to be 99.7% and 97.6% lower, respectively, than the VLCPDP scenario, while the VLCPDP scenario's emissions are expected to be 14.7% higher than the BAU scenario.
• Under the SDGs 2 scenario in 2040, renewable energies are projected to comprise 99% of total electricity generation capacity, representing an increase of 26.7% over BAU and 20.9% over VLCPDP.
• PM2.5 concentrations are projected to increase by 0.54µg/m3 by 2040 under both the BAU and VLCPDP scenarios.

APA

Stockholm Environment Institute (2021). Assessing transition pathways to low-carbon electricity generation in Kenya: a hybrid approach using backcasting, socio-technical scenarios and energy system modelling. https://www.sei.org/publications/assessing-transition-pathways-to-low-carbon-electricity-generation-in-kenya-a-hybrid-approach-using-backcasting-socio-technical-scenarios-and-energy-system-modelling/

Chicago

Stockholm Environment Institute. Assessing transition pathways to low-carbon electricity generation in Kenya: a hybrid approach using backcasting, socio-technical scenarios and energy system modelling. 2021. https://www.sei.org/publications/assessing-transition-pathways-to-low-carbon-electricity-generation-in-kenya-a-hybrid-approach-using-backcasting-socio-technical-scenarios-and-energy-system-modelling/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Stockholm Environment Institute |title=Assessing transition pathways to low-carbon electricity generation in Kenya: a hybrid approach using backcasting, socio-technical scenarios and energy system modelling |date=27 July 2021 |url=https://www.sei.org/publications/assessing-transition-pathways-to-low-carbon-electricity-generation-in-kenya-a-hybrid-approach-using-backcasting-socio-technical-scenarios-and-energy-system-modelling/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{stockholmenvironmentinstitute2021assessing, author = {{Stockholm Environment Institute}}, title = {{Assessing transition pathways to low-carbon electricity generation in Kenya: a hybrid approach using backcasting, socio-technical scenarios and energy system modelling}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2021}, month = jul, url = {https://www.sei.org/publications/assessing-transition-pathways-to-low-carbon-electricity-generation-in-kenya-a-hybrid-approach-using-backcasting-socio-technical-scenarios-and-energy-system-modelling/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }