Assessing transition pathways to low-carbon electricity generation in Kenya: a hybrid approach using backcasting, socio-technical scenarios and energy system modelling

A study using the LEAP-Kenya-Centralized-Electricity model evaluates electricity generation pathways for Kenya from 2010 to 2040. It finds that while electricity demand will reach 57.4 thousand gigawatts-hours by 2040 under most scenarios, the Full Renewables (FRE) and UN Agenda 2030 SDGs (SDGs 2) scenarios offer the highest greenhouse gas abatement and lowest health impacts. Specifically, the SDGs 2 scenario projects renewable energy to account for 99% of capacity by 2040.

• By 2040, total electricity demand is projected to be 57.4 thousand gigawatts-hours under the VLCPDP and low-carbon scenarios, which is 11.8% higher than the Business as Usual (BAU) scenario.
• The SDGs and AU scenarios result in significantly lower greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions compared to the VLCPDP scenario, with reductions of 99.7% and 97.6% respectively, while the VLCPDP scenario's emissions are 14.7% higher than the BAU scenario.
• Under the SDGs 2 scenario in 2040, renewable energies are expected to comprise 99% of total electricity generation capacity, representing an increase of 26.7% over BAU and 20.9% over VLCPDP. The Full Renewables (FRE) and SDGs 2 scenarios are identified as the most effective for maximizing GHG abatement and minimizing human health impacts at the lowest costs.
• PM2.5 concentrations are projected to increase by 0.54µg/m3 by 2040 in both the BAU and VLCPDP scenarios.

APA

Stockholm Environment Institute (2021). Assessing transition pathways to low-carbon electricity generation in Kenya: a hybrid approach using backcasting, socio-technical scenarios and energy system modelling. https://www.sei.org/publications/assessing-transition-pathways-to-low-carbon-electricity-generation-in-kenya-a-hybrid-approach-using-backcasting-socio-technical-scenarios-and-energy-system-modelling/

Chicago

Stockholm Environment Institute. Assessing transition pathways to low-carbon electricity generation in Kenya: a hybrid approach using backcasting, socio-technical scenarios and energy system modelling. 2021. https://www.sei.org/publications/assessing-transition-pathways-to-low-carbon-electricity-generation-in-kenya-a-hybrid-approach-using-backcasting-socio-technical-scenarios-and-energy-system-modelling/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Stockholm Environment Institute |title=Assessing transition pathways to low-carbon electricity generation in Kenya: a hybrid approach using backcasting, socio-technical scenarios and energy system modelling |date=27 July 2021 |url=https://www.sei.org/publications/assessing-transition-pathways-to-low-carbon-electricity-generation-in-kenya-a-hybrid-approach-using-backcasting-socio-technical-scenarios-and-energy-system-modelling/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{stockholmenvironmentinstitute2021assessing, author = {{Stockholm Environment Institute}}, title = {{Assessing transition pathways to low-carbon electricity generation in Kenya: a hybrid approach using backcasting, socio-technical scenarios and energy system modelling}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2021}, month = jul, url = {https://www.sei.org/publications/assessing-transition-pathways-to-low-carbon-electricity-generation-in-kenya-a-hybrid-approach-using-backcasting-socio-technical-scenarios-and-energy-system-modelling/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }