Trends in fossil fuel extraction

The report finds that baseline projections for oil, gas, and coal production are significantly higher than the levels required to limit global warming to 1.5°C or 2°C. It highlights that the largest production increases are projected in the United States, Brazil, Iran, Canada, and Saudi Arabia. The analysis argues that a managed wind-down of production is necessary to avoid inequitable outcomes, as the projected production from high-income and low-dependence countries alone would exceed the 1.5°C-consistent global budget.

• Projected baseline trajectories for global fossil fuel production are significantly higher than pathways required to limit warming to 1.5°C or 2°C. Specifically, between now and 2030, 1.5°C-consistent pathways require annual average decline rates of approximately 11% for coal, 4% for oil, and 3% for gas. In contrast, baseline oil and gas production are projected to increase by about 2% per year, and coal is projected to decline by only 1% per year.
• The United States is projected to have the largest absolute increase in both oil and gas production by 2030. Other countries expected to see significant oil production increases include Brazil and Iran, while Canada and Saudi Arabia are projected to see the largest gas production increases after the US.
• India is the only country where annual coal production is projected to increase, with an expected rise of 27% (+110 million tonnes of coal equivalent per year) by 2030 compared to 2019.
• Onshore unconventional development is the primary driver of projected global production increases, accounting for 71% of the increase in annual oil production and 67% for gas.
• A global wind-down of production could be highly inequitable if not managed internationally. Analysis shows that the projected baseline production from high-income countries alone, or from countries with low fossil fuel revenue dependence, would exceed the global pathways consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C.

APA

Achakulwisut, P., & Erickson, P. (2021). Trends in fossil fuel extraction. Stockholm Environment Institute. https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/trends-in-fossil-fuel-extraction.pdf

Chicago

Achakulwisut, Ploy, and Peter Erickson. Trends in fossil fuel extraction. Stockholm Environment Institute, 2021. https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/trends-in-fossil-fuel-extraction.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Achakulwisut |first1=Ploy |last2=Erickson |first2=Peter |title=Trends in fossil fuel extraction |publisher=Stockholm Environment Institute |date=April 2021 |url=https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/trends-in-fossil-fuel-extraction.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{achakulwisut2021trends, author = {Achakulwisut, Ploy and Erickson, Peter}, title = {{Trends in fossil fuel extraction}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2021}, month = apr, url = {https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/trends-in-fossil-fuel-extraction.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }