Assessment of the NGFS’ second set of climate scenarios

The report argues that the NGFS's second set of 1.5°C scenarios are not aligned with the Paris Agreement and are unsustainable due to an over-reliance on fossil fuels, biomass, and carbon dioxide removal (CDR). It finds that these scenarios fail to account for the need to end fossil fuel expansion and rely on unproven technologies like Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) to justify slower phase-outs of oil, gas, and coal.

• The NGFS 1.5°C scenarios are not aligned with the fossil fuel production reductions required by the UN Production Gap Report 2020. Specifically, the GCAM model's NZ and DNZ scenarios fail to sufficiently reduce coal use by 2030, and most scenarios are over-reliant on gas.
• NGFS scenarios allow for higher levels of investment in fossil fuel extraction and electricity generation than the IEA Net-Zero scenario. They fail to reflect the necessity of ending new fossil fuel investments or achieving a carbon-neutral power system before 2050.
• The scenarios rely heavily on biomass, with several exceeding the sustainable threshold of 60 EJ per year defined by the Energy Transitions Commission (ETC). One scenario, GCAM NZ, forecasts a peak of 110 EJ of primary energy from biomass by 2040.
• There is a dangerous over-reliance on Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS), particularly in NZ scenarios. The report argues that the NGFS's distinction between 'limited' and 'medium' CDR levels is misleading, as even 'limited' scenarios bet on large amounts of CDR.
• The scenarios continue to rely on Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) and afforestation at levels that exceed sustainability ranges, particularly in the long term toward 2100.
• The NGFS labels 'Net Zero' (NZ) scenarios as 'orderly' despite them having higher fossil fuel use than 'Divergent Net Zero' (DNZ) scenarios, which the report claims could mislead financial institutions into maintaining fossil fuel support.

APA

Reclaim Finance (2021). Assessment of the NGFS’ second set of climate scenarios. https://reclaimfinance.org/site/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/NGFS_Climate_Scenarios_Analysis_EN.pdf

Chicago

Reclaim Finance. Assessment of the NGFS’ second set of climate scenarios. 2021. https://reclaimfinance.org/site/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/NGFS_Climate_Scenarios_Analysis_EN.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Reclaim Finance |title=Assessment of the NGFS’ second set of climate scenarios |date=July 2021 |url=https://reclaimfinance.org/site/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/NGFS_Climate_Scenarios_Analysis_EN.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{reclaimfinance2021assessment, author = {{Reclaim Finance}}, title = {{Assessment of the NGFS’ second set of climate scenarios}}, institution = {Reclaim Finance}, year = {2021}, month = jul, url = {https://reclaimfinance.org/site/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/NGFS_Climate_Scenarios_Analysis_EN.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }