Development prospects for the Horn of Africa countries to 2040

The report assesses the development prospects of the Horn of Africa, highlighting how governance failure, insecurity, and climate-driven food instability hinder progress. It uses the International Futures platform to project that without intervention, no country in the region will eliminate extreme poverty by 2030. The analysis identifies a critical 'youth bulge' and severe infrastructure deficits in energy, transport, and water. To counter these trends, the authors propose an 'Integrated Development Push' scenario combining improved governance, agricultural modernisation, and investments in human capital and basic infrastructure to boost regional GDP and reduce poverty by 2040.

• Governance failures, political exclusion, and discrimination based on ethnicity and religion are primary obstacles to stability and development in the region.
• Based on current trajectories, none of the Horn of Africa countries are expected to meet the Sustainable Development Goal of eliminating extreme poverty by 2030.
• The region is characterised by an exceptionally young population, which creates a risk of sociopolitical instability if job prospects and education are not improved.
• Economic activity is heavily concentrated in Ethiopia and Sudan, which together account for 89% of the region's total GDP.
• The region suffers from high food insecurity due to a reliance on rain-fed agriculture and pastoralism, compounded by recurrent droughts and conflict.
• Infrastructure is severely underdeveloped across the region, with South Sudan and Somalia recording the lowest levels of development in Africa for transport, electricity, and water/sanitation.
• The region is a critical geostrategic site, leading to a proliferation of foreign military bases from the US, China, France, Italy, Japan, Spain, and Russia.
• External finance is dominated by aid and investment from Gulf countries, though this creates pressure on Horn governments to align with geopolitical rivalries.
• An 'Integrated Development Push' scenario—combining governance, agriculture, and human capital improvements—could increase regional GDP by US$212.9 billion by 2040 compared to the current path.
• Under the proposed integrated scenario, the average regional poverty rate could drop to 6.5% by 2040, compared to 12.4% on the current trajectory.

APA

Yeboua, K., & Cilliers, J. (2021). Development prospects for the Horn of Africa countries to 2040. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/ear-42.pdf

Chicago

Yeboua, Kouassi, and Jakkie Cilliers. Development prospects for the Horn of Africa countries to 2040. Institute for Security Studies, 2021. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/ear-42.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Yeboua |first1=Kouassi |last2=Cilliers |first2=Jakkie |title=Development prospects for the Horn of Africa countries to 2040 |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=September 2021 |url=https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/ear-42.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{yeboua2021development, author = {Yeboua, Kouassi and Cilliers, Jakkie}, title = {{Development prospects for the Horn of Africa countries to 2040}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2021}, month = sep, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/ear-42.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }