Race to sustainability?

The report analyzes Egypt's path to 2050, highlighting critical risks from rapid population growth (projected to reach 150 million) and severe water shortages expected by 2025. It identifies systemic economic issues, including a large informal sector and high youth unemployment, alongside health crises driven by non-communicable diseases. Through the International Futures (IFs) platform, the authors simulate seven sectoral interventions—covering demography, economy, governance, energy, health, education, and agriculture—concluding that a combined policy push could nearly double the economy's size and significantly reduce extreme poverty by 2050.

• Egypt's population is projected to grow to nearly 150 million by 2050, with a significant youth bulge that could increase the risk of instability if their needs are not met.
• The country faces a critical water shortage projected for 2025, a situation complicated by the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) and the fact that agriculture consumes over 80% of freshwater resources.
• Economic growth is hindered by poor governance, patronage politics, and a massive informal sector estimated to constitute over 50% of GDP, where most jobs lack written contracts or social insurance.
• Egypt's health system is strained by a high prevalence of non-communicable diseases (NCDs), which cause over 85% of total deaths, and a severe shortage of doctors due to mass emigration.
• Despite high primary education outcomes, bottlenecks exist at secondary and tertiary levels, with many graduates lacking the technical and soft skills required for the modern labour market.
• Egypt is highly vulnerable to climate change, with projections that rising sea levels will affect 12% to 15% of fertile land in the Nile Delta and hotter temperatures will reduce agricultural productivity by 15%–20% by 2050.
• Egypt is the world's largest importer of wheat, and over 40% of its total food needs are met by imports, leaving the country vulnerable to international price shocks.
• Simulations show that increasing female labour participation and access to modern contraception would have the most significant immediate impact on GDP and poverty reduction by 2033.
• A combined scenario of holistic policy reforms across all sectors could result in a GDP of roughly US$2.3 trillion by 2050, nearly doubling the size of the economy compared to the current path.

APA

Kwasi, S., Cilliers, J., & Yeboua, K. (2022). Race to sustainability? Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/nar-7.pdf

Chicago

Kwasi, Stellah, Jakkie Cilliers, and Kouassi Yeboua. Race to sustainability? Institute for Security Studies, 2022. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/nar-7.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Kwasi |first1=Stellah |last2=Cilliers |first2=Jakkie |last3=Yeboua |first3=Kouassi |title=Race to sustainability? |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=January 2022 |url=https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/nar-7.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{kwasi2022race, author = {Kwasi, Stellah and Cilliers, Jakkie and Yeboua, Kouassi}, title = {{Race to sustainability?}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2022}, month = jan, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/nar-7.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }