Future fishery conflict narrative scenarios

The document presents four science-based narrative scenarios for fishery conflicts occurring between 2030 and 2060. These scenarios are designed to address a gap in existing projections by incorporating broader societal trends alongside environmental stressors like climate change and overfishing. The scenarios focus on the North-East Atlantic, the East China Sea, the coast of West Africa, and the Arctic, serving as tools to enhance anticipatory governance for ocean security.

• Current projections of fishery conflict fail to account for broader economic, social, or political trends, despite evidence that climate change and overfishing increase conflict likelihood.
• The paper establishes four specific regional conflict scenarios for the period 2030-2060: 'scramble for the Atlantic' in the North-East Atlantic, 'the remodeled empire' in the East China Sea, 'oceanic decolonization' off the coast of West Africa, and 'polar renaissance' in the Arctic.

APA

Stockholm Environment Institute (2021). Future fishery conflict narrative scenarios. https://www.sei.org/publications/future-fishery-conflict-narrative-scenarios/

Chicago

Stockholm Environment Institute. Future fishery conflict narrative scenarios. 2021. https://www.sei.org/publications/future-fishery-conflict-narrative-scenarios/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Stockholm Environment Institute |title=Future fishery conflict narrative scenarios |date=12 April 2021 |url=https://www.sei.org/publications/future-fishery-conflict-narrative-scenarios/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{stockholmenvironmentinstitute2021future, author = {{Stockholm Environment Institute}}, title = {{Future fishery conflict narrative scenarios}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2021}, month = apr, url = {https://www.sei.org/publications/future-fishery-conflict-narrative-scenarios/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }