Future fishery conflict narrative scenarios

This research paper develops four narrative scenarios to project future fishery conflicts between 2030 and 2060, integrating climate change and overfishing with broader societal, economic, and political trends.

• The paper identifies a gap in existing projections of fishery conflict, noting that while stressors like climate change and overfishing are recognized as drivers, current models fail to incorporate broader social, political, and economic trends.
• Using a multimethod approach involving expert workshops, a longitudinal database of international conflict, secondary data, and regional reviews, the paper establishes four specific conflict scenarios for the period 2030 to 2060: 'scramble for the Atlantic' in the North-East Atlantic, 'the remodeled empire' in the East China Sea, 'oceanic decolonization' off the coast of West Africa, and 'polar renaissance' in the Arctic.

APA

Stockholm Environment Institute (2021). Future fishery conflict narrative scenarios. https://www.sei.org/publications/future-fishery-conflict-narrative-scenarios/

Chicago

Stockholm Environment Institute. Future fishery conflict narrative scenarios. 2021. https://www.sei.org/publications/future-fishery-conflict-narrative-scenarios/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Stockholm Environment Institute |title=Future fishery conflict narrative scenarios |date=12 April 2021 |url=https://www.sei.org/publications/future-fishery-conflict-narrative-scenarios/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{stockholmenvironmentinstitute2021future, author = {{Stockholm Environment Institute}}, title = {{Future fishery conflict narrative scenarios}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2021}, month = apr, url = {https://www.sei.org/publications/future-fishery-conflict-narrative-scenarios/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }