Nigeria in 2050

Nigeria faces severe developmental challenges including endemic corruption, insecurity, and an overdependence on oil exports. Projections indicate that without intervention, Nigeria will have the highest number of poor people globally by 2050. The report proposes a 'Super Nigeria' scenario combining improvements in governance, human capital, infrastructure, agriculture, and economic diversification to potentially make Nigeria the fifth largest economy globally by 2050.

• Nigeria is projected to have the highest number of poor people globally by 2050 if it remains on its current development path, with the absolute number of poor people expected to peak at about 120 million in 2038.
• The country's population is expected to grow rapidly, reaching approximately 452 million by 2050, which would make Nigeria the third most populous country in the world after India and China.
• Nigeria's economy is heavily dependent on the oil and gas sector, which accounts for over 90% of export earnings and more than half of government revenue, leaving the country vulnerable to commodity price shocks.
• Severe security threats, including Boko Haram, ISWAP, and banditry, have caused massive loss of life and displacement, with Boko Haram violence alone estimated to have caused 350,000 deaths since 2009.
• The education system is characterized by chronic underfunding and high illiteracy, with Nigeria having the world's highest number of out-of-school children, totaling approximately 10.5 million children aged 5–14.
• Public health outcomes are among the worst globally, with Nigeria having the highest maternal mortality ratio among lower middle-income African countries at 831 deaths per 100,000 live births.
• Infrastructure deficits significantly hinder productivity, with the core infrastructure stock estimated at only 20% to 25% of GDP, far below the international benchmark of 70%.
• Energy poverty is widespread; as of 2019, roughly 80 million people lacked access to electricity, and the country relies heavily on fossil fuel back-up generators due to an unreliable national grid.
• The agricultural sector is unable to meet the nutritional demands of the growing population, with a projected unmet demand of nearly 50% of total demand by 2050 under the current path.
• A combined 'Super Nigeria' scenario—integrating governance, human capital, infrastructure, agriculture, and economic diversification—could result in Nigeria having the fifth largest economy globally by 2050 with a GDP of about US$6.6 trillion.

APA

Yeboua, K., Cilliers, J., & le Roux, A. (2022). Nigeria in 2050. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/WA-37.pdf

Chicago

Yeboua, Kouassi, Jakkie Cilliers, and Alize le Roux. Nigeria in 2050. Institute for Security Studies, 2022. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/WA-37.pdf.

Wikipedia

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BibTeX

@techreport{yeboua2022nigeria, author = {Yeboua, Kouassi and Cilliers, Jakkie and le Roux, Alize}, title = {{Nigeria in 2050}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2022}, month = feb, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/WA-37.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }