FOSSIL FUEL EXIT STRATEGY

The report argues that stopping the expansion of fossil fuels is insufficient to meet the 1.5°C target of the Paris Agreement; instead, an active wind-down of existing production is required. It proposes specific annual decline rates for coal (9.5%), oil (8.5%), and gas (3.5%) between 2021 and 2030. The authors conclude that this transition is technically feasible because global solar and wind potential could meet primary energy demand more than 50 times over, ensuring 100% energy access without risking energy security.

• Stopping the expansion of fossil fuel extraction is insufficient to limit global warming to 1.5°C, as emissions from existing projects alone would cause a significant overshoot. Under a 'no expansion' scenario, emissions are projected to be 22% too high in 2025 and 66% too high by 2030 compared to a 1.5°C target.
• To align with a 1.5°C trajectory, global fossil fuel production must decline by specific average annual rates between 2021 and 2030: 9.5% for coal, 8.5% for oil, and 3.5% for gas.
• Global renewable energy potential is vastly greater than current energy demands. Conservative estimates accounting for land constraints and environmental safeguards indicate that solar and wind energy alone could meet primary energy demand more than 50 times over.
• A transition to 100% renewable energy is feasible without compromising energy security or access. While total primary energy demand is projected to fall by 27% by 2050 due to efficiency and electrification, electricity demand is expected to increase by 287% under the 1.5°C scenario.
• All global regions, including major fossil fuel producers in North America, Asia, and the Middle East, possess sufficient renewable energy potential to meet their own energy needs. Africa is identified as the region with the greatest renewable energy potential.
• Current industry expansion plans are inconsistent with the Paris Agreement. If all planned new coal, gas, and oil production were implemented, energy-related CO2 emissions by 2030 would exceed the 1.5°C target by 120%.
• The proposed 1.5°C pathway differs from the IEA Net Zero scenario by excluding unproven or high-risk technologies such as Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) and Direct Air Capture and Storage (DACS), relying instead on existing renewable technologies and energy efficiency.

APA

Teske, S., & Niklas, S. (2021). FOSSIL FUEL EXIT STRATEGY. Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative. https://www.fossilfueltreaty.org/s/Fossil-Fuel-Exit-Strategy-An-orderly-wind-down-of-coal-oil-and-gas-to-meet-the-Paris-Agreement.pdf

Chicago

Teske, Sven, and Sarah Niklas. FOSSIL FUEL EXIT STRATEGY. Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative, 2021. https://www.fossilfueltreaty.org/s/Fossil-Fuel-Exit-Strategy-An-orderly-wind-down-of-coal-oil-and-gas-to-meet-the-Paris-Agreement.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Teske |first1=Sven |last2=Niklas |first2=Sarah |title=FOSSIL FUEL EXIT STRATEGY |publisher=Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative |date=June 2021 |url=https://www.fossilfueltreaty.org/s/Fossil-Fuel-Exit-Strategy-An-orderly-wind-down-of-coal-oil-and-gas-to-meet-the-Paris-Agreement.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{teske2021fossil, author = {Teske, Sven and Niklas, Sarah}, title = {{FOSSIL FUEL EXIT STRATEGY}}, institution = {Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative}, year = {2021}, month = jun, url = {https://www.fossilfueltreaty.org/s/Fossil-Fuel-Exit-Strategy-An-orderly-wind-down-of-coal-oil-and-gas-to-meet-the-Paris-Agreement.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }