What does the IEA Net Zero Scenario say?

The IEA Net Zero Scenario projects a massive expansion of solar and wind energy, with solar and wind together providing almost 70% of global electricity by 2050. It calls for an immediate end to new oil, gas, and unabated coal investments, forecasting a 90% decline in coal demand and a 275% decline in oil use by 2050. The transition relies heavily on the scaling of currently non-commercially viable technologies, including CCUS, hydrogen, and negative emission technologies (NETs), as well as a 60% increase in bioenergy use.

• The scenario requires a rapid scale-up of clean energy, with solar and wind annual additions quadrupling in the 2020s to reach 630 GW and 390 GW by 2030, respectively. By 2050, solar and wind will dominate global electricity generation, accounting for nearly 70% of the total, with solar PV capacity increasing twentyfold.
• Fossil fuel demand must decline sharply, with no new oil and gas fields needed beyond those approved in 2021. Oil demand is projected to decline 275% from 2020 to 2050, falling to 24 mb/d, while coal demand is expected to drop by 90% by 2050, leaving coal responsible for only 1% of total energy demand.
• The transition depends significantly on technologies that are not yet commercially viable; nearly 50% of emission reductions needed between 2030 and 2050 rely on these. This includes a projected increase in carbon capture from 40 million tonnes in 2020 to 7.6 billion tonnes in 2050, split between CCUS (5.2 billion tonnes) and NETs (2.4 billion tonnes).
• Electric vehicle (EV) adoption must accelerate from 5% of global car sales to 60% by 2030, with a recommendation that governments end new internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicle sales by 2035. This requires battery production to surge to 6600GWh by 2030 and an investment of USD 90 billion in public charging infrastructure.
• Bioenergy use is projected to increase by approximately 60% between 2020 and 2050, meeting nearly 20% of total energy needs. This involves increasing the land area dedicated to bioenergy from 330 million hectares in 2020 to 410 million hectares in 2050.

APA

Team, Z. (2021). What does the IEA Net Zero Scenario say? Zero Carbon Analytics. https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/policy/what-does-the-iea-net-zero-scenario-say/

Chicago

Team, ZCA. What does the IEA Net Zero Scenario say? Zero Carbon Analytics, 2021. https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/policy/what-does-the-iea-net-zero-scenario-say/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Team |first1=ZCA |title=What does the IEA Net Zero Scenario say? |publisher=Zero Carbon Analytics |date=17 May 2021 |url=https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/policy/what-does-the-iea-net-zero-scenario-say/ |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{team2021what, author = {Team, ZCA}, title = {{What does the IEA Net Zero Scenario say?}}, institution = {Zero Carbon Analytics}, year = {2021}, month = may, url = {https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/policy/what-does-the-iea-net-zero-scenario-say/}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }