SADC Infrastructure Futures: Pathways to Complementary Regional Interconnectivity

The document argues that SADC countries face a significant infrastructure deficit and institutional weaknesses that hinder regional integration and economic recovery. It proposes the adoption of 'anticipatory governance' and a shift toward green, inclusive, and digitally enabled infrastructure to move away from national protectionism and fossil-fuel dependency. Using a STEEPV framework, the authors outline various future scenarios—ranging from 'SADC Solarpunk' (desirable) to 'Deep Collusion' (undesirable)—to stress-test current strategies and advocate for innovative blended financing and regional cooperation via the AfCFTA.

• SADC's regional infrastructure development is characterized by significant stagnation, with over 50% of projects in the Regional Infrastructure Development Master Plan (RIDMP) remaining at the pre-feasibility or feasibility stage, and only seven projects completed two-thirds of the way through the implementation period.
• The region faces severe infrastructure gaps across road, ICT, and power generation, with the African Development Bank estimating the continent's annual infrastructure needs between $130 billion and $170 billion, and a financing gap of $68 billion to $108 billion.
• Climate change and demographic shifts pose critical risks to SADC infrastructure; over 40% of sub-Saharan Africa's population lives in cities (expected to reach 60% by 2050), and energy demands are projected to rise by 60% to approximately 1,320 million tonnes of oil equivalent by 2040.
• The authors advocate for 'anticipatory governance' to allow SADC stakeholders to detect emerging disruptors and experiment with future scenarios, arguing that the SADC Secretariat currently lacks the power to enforce agreements on member states.
• The document identifies several 'undesirable futures' for the region, including 'Oily-garchia,' where fossil-fuel interests block green transitions, and 'Deep Collusion,' where state-capture and corrupt patronage networks manipulate infrastructure procurement.
• To achieve a 'preferred future,' the report recommends leveraging the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) to eliminate non-tariff barriers and adopting innovative blended financing models, such as infrastructure asset recycling and development impact bonds.

APA

Wentworth, L., & Cloete, D. (2022). SADC Infrastructure Futures: Pathways to Complementary Regional Interconnectivity. South African Institute of International Affairs. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Policy-Insights-124-wenthworth-cloete.pdf

Chicago

Wentworth, Lesley, and Deon Cloete. SADC Infrastructure Futures: Pathways to Complementary Regional Interconnectivity. South African Institute of International Affairs, 2022. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Policy-Insights-124-wenthworth-cloete.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Wentworth |first1=Lesley |last2=Cloete |first2=Deon |title=SADC Infrastructure Futures: Pathways to Complementary Regional Interconnectivity |publisher=South African Institute of International Affairs |date=February 2022 |url=https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Policy-Insights-124-wenthworth-cloete.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{wentworth2022sadc, author = {Wentworth, Lesley and Cloete, Deon}, title = {{SADC Infrastructure Futures: Pathways to Complementary Regional Interconnectivity}}, institution = {South African Institute of International Affairs}, year = {2022}, month = feb, url = {https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Policy-Insights-124-wenthworth-cloete.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }