Search Climate Insights Directory
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State Futures in the Global South
The document establishes a conceptual framework for analyzing the future of state governance in the Global South. It defines state governance as the structures and processes used to exercise authority and manage resources, emphasizing a shift away from Global North-centric democratic models toward 'accountable governance'. The research employs a foresight-driven approach to investigate how technology, economic transitions, and geopolitical shifts influence governance trajectories across seven defined regions of the Global South.
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Document type: Research paper
Reframing Democracy in Africa: From Ritual to Transformative Solidarity Economics
The document contends that democracy in Africa often exists in form but lacks substance because it is built upon colonial socio-economic structures that preserve elite control. Using foresight methods and a case study of the South African National Dialogue, it argues that political liberation has not led to structural transformation, resulting in 'economic entrapment'. To resolve this, the author proposes a shift toward 'solidarity economics'—prioritizing community ownership and social equity over neoliberal profit—alongside civic education, a National Competency Framework for public service, and 'living constitutions' that allow for periodic renewal and citizen recall rights.
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Document type: Policy brief
Future Asia Pacific Insights
The document outlines key drivers of change in Asia and the Pacific, focusing on the dual nature of artificial intelligence, the risk of losing traditional ecological knowledge, and the influence of power relations on environmental outcomes. It proposes a transition away from consumerist economic models toward systems prioritizing planetary health, alongside the need for robust governance and the protection of the rights of nature and marginalized groups.
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Document type: Policy brief
Systemic Innovations for South Africa’s Energy Futures: Draft Strategic Framework
The report argues that South Africa must move beyond linear thinking and 'energy blindness' to embrace systems and futures thinking for its energy transition. It identifies critical leverage points—ranging from infrastructure and regulatory reform to paradigm shifts in economic growth—to avoid energy poverty and social unrest. The framework outlines four strategic priorities: championing cross-border collaboration for energy democracies, practicing active non-alignment in renewable energy diplomacy, challenging 'used' (borrowed) energy futures, and transitioning from growth-centric economic models to anticipatory energy governance.
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Document type: Report
Malawi: Youth-Centric Policies for Future Prosperity
The document outlines a roadmap for Malawi's future prosperity by focusing on youth-centric policies. It advocates for the integration of youth voices in national planning, the creation of a transformative education investment plan, the incorporation of mental health services into primary healthcare, and a shift toward community-based disaster risk reduction. These recommendations stem from a participatory research project using foresight methodologies like Futures Literacy Labs and the Three Horizons Framework, highlighting the urgent need for resilience following events such as Cyclone Freddy.
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Document type: Policy brief
Mobile work in the future: climate protection opportunities and risks
The document introduces a study on the future of mobile work—including working from home, business trips, and co-working spaces—and investigates how these shifts affect traditional office spaces, private living spaces, settlement patterns, and consumer services to identify opportunities for climate protection policy.
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Document type: Guide
Systemic Innovations for Critical Minerals in SADC Draft Strategic Framework
The report argues that the SADC region must move beyond 'business-as-usual' mining models to avoid repeating past failures of fragile growth and inequality. It proposes a transition toward a 'resource-balanced economy' (RBE) and a 'cooperative economy' through five strategic priorities: investing in advanced geological surveying, building mineral stewardship competencies, developing regional value chains, embedding anticipatory governance, and strengthening regulatory transparency. The authors advocate for systemic innovations, including the use of digital currencies to formalise artisanal mining, the creation of a regional metal exchange, and a shift away from US dollar reliance in trade to reduce exogenous shocks.
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Document type: Report
Civic Tech in Southern Africa: Alternative Democracy and Governance Futures?
The paper analyzes the growth of civic tech in southern Africa, identifying a strong concentration of initiatives in South Africa and a primary focus on democracy and governance. It explores two diverging pathways: civic tech as a government partner or as an independent, community-driven tool for development. The authors highlight significant barriers, including the digital divide, funding instability, and adversarial relationships between governments and tech innovators, while recommending sustainable funding models and increased digital literacy for public officials.
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Document type: Research paper
SADC Infrastructure Futures: Pathways to Complementary Regional Interconnectivity
The document argues that SADC countries face a significant infrastructure deficit and institutional weaknesses that hinder regional integration and economic recovery. It proposes the adoption of 'anticipatory governance' and a shift toward green, inclusive, and digitally enabled infrastructure to move away from national protectionism and fossil-fuel dependency. Using a STEEPV framework, the authors outline various future scenarios—ranging from 'SADC Solarpunk' (desirable) to 'Deep Collusion' (undesirable)—to stress-test current strategies and advocate for innovative blended financing and regional cooperation via the AfCFTA.
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Document type: Policy brief
Mainstreaming Sustainable Development into National and Subnational Development Planning in Latin America and Caribbean
The report details a rapid foresight exercise and backcasting analysis conducted with 18 practitioners from Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) to identify gaps in sustainable development planning. It emphasizes the need to transition from siloed, sector-based planning to integrated, multistakeholder processes that align national visions with subnational implementation. The document outlines a capacity-building agenda for 2014-2015 focusing on vertical and horizontal collaboration, cross-cutting policies for water, energy, and food security, and the shift from expenditure-based reporting to objective-based monitoring, evaluation, and reporting (MER). It also maps existing regional networks, such as REDEPLAN and CLAD, to coordinate knowledge sharing and avoid duplication of efforts.
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Document type: Report
FUTURES OF TVET SKILLS: A SOUTH AFRICAN GREEN HYDROGEN STRATEGIC FRAMEWORK
The research paper outlines a strategic framework to align South Africa's TVET system with the needs of a future green hydrogen economy. Using foresight tools like the Three Horizons Framework and scenario planning, it identifies systemic failures in the current TVET model—such as misalignment with industry needs and funding deficits—and proposes a shift toward 'economic wellbeing' rather than just job placement. The framework suggests sustained innovations, such as scaling Centres of Specialisation (CoS), and disruptive innovations, including nano/micro-credentialing and the use of AR/VR toolkits, to ensure a just labour transition by 2050.
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Document type: Research paper