FUTURES OF TVET SKILLS: A SOUTH AFRICAN GREEN HYDROGEN STRATEGIC FRAMEWORK

This research paper by the South African Institute of International Affairs (SAIIA) proposes a strategic framework to transition Technical and Vocational Education and Training (TVET) skills toward a green hydrogen economy in South Africa by 2050. Using foresight tools like the Three Horizons framework and scenario planning, the document identifies systemic failures in the current TVET system and outlines a vision for a 'just and inclusive' ecosystem that prioritizes economic wellbeing and ecological resilience over a narrow focus on job placement.

• The current 'dominant system' (H1) of South African TVET is characterized by a misalignment between training and industry needs, poor labor absorption, and a lack of coherence regarding the definitions of future 'green' occupations. The system suffers from administrative inefficiencies, funding deficits for occupational training, and a lack of gender inclusivity.
• The framework identifies several high-impact uncertainties for the green hydrogen economy, with the two highest-ranking being the level of political will and policy certainty to change educational outcomes, and the implementation of demand-led educational outcomes to ensure economic wellbeing.
• The 'Economic wellbeing ecosystems' scenario represents a desirable future where TVET shifts toward 'whole-person training' and 'problem-orientated education.' This includes the adoption of nano/micro-credentialing to replace fixed three-year curricula, the use of AR/VR 'education metaverses' to remove geographical barriers, and the implementation of 'shadow boards' to include youth in the redesign of education.
• The document warns of 'Possible Futures' that could result from low political will or ineffective action, such as 'Survival of the greenest,' where 'greenwashed' education fails to meet actual sustainability requirements, or 'All sebenza, no pay,' where effective policy exists but training outcomes are poorly designed, leading to an unjust labor transition and reliance on imported foreign skills.
• The proposed strategic framework categorizes necessary innovations into 'sustained' and 'disruptive.' Sustained innovations include scaling Centres of Specialisation (CoS), creating a green hydrogen industry body, and targeting higher enrollment of women. Disruptive innovations include shifting college culture toward a demand-led delivery ecosystem and implementing industrial policy measures to stimulate the domestic green hydrogen market.

APA

South African Institute of International Affairs (n.d.). FUTURES OF TVET SKILLS: A SOUTH AFRICAN GREEN HYDROGEN STRATEGIC FRAMEWORK. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/Workstream-7-Futures-of-TVET-Skills-A-Green-Hydrogen-Strategic-Framework.pdf

Chicago

South African Institute of International Affairs. FUTURES OF TVET SKILLS: A SOUTH AFRICAN GREEN HYDROGEN STRATEGIC FRAMEWORK. n.d. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/Workstream-7-Futures-of-TVET-Skills-A-Green-Hydrogen-Strategic-Framework.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=South African Institute of International Affairs |title=FUTURES OF TVET SKILLS: A SOUTH AFRICAN GREEN HYDROGEN STRATEGIC FRAMEWORK |url=https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/Workstream-7-Futures-of-TVET-Skills-A-Green-Hydrogen-Strategic-Framework.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{southafricaninstituteofinternationalaffairsndfutures, author = {{South African Institute of International Affairs}}, title = {{FUTURES OF TVET SKILLS: A SOUTH AFRICAN GREEN HYDROGEN STRATEGIC FRAMEWORK}}, institution = {South African Institute of International Affairs}, url = {https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/Workstream-7-Futures-of-TVET-Skills-A-Green-Hydrogen-Strategic-Framework.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }