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This report outlines the 'Combined scenario' for Africa's economic structural transformation toward 2043, focusing on the shift from low-productivity to high-productivity sectors. It details the projected roles of manufacturing, services, agriculture, and ICT, while emphasizing the necessity of urban resilience and regional trade integration via AfCFTA to achieve a diversified, knowledge-based economy.

This report by the Institute for Security Studies examines the historical, structural, and policy-driven reasons for Africa's under-industrialisation. It identifies a combination of colonial legacies, infrastructure deficits, skills gaps, and capital constraints as primary barriers, while noting that some countries have seen success through focused industrial strategies and the potential for global supply chain shifts to create new opportunities.

This research paper analyzes the sectoral composition of economies across different income groups, focusing on the role of manufacturing, services, and ICT in economic development. It compares Africa's development trajectory with those of India, China, and the Asian Tigers, highlighting the impact of industrialization and demographic windows on growth.

This research paper by the Institute for Security Studies analyzes the projected economic and social impacts of a 'Manufacturing scenario' for Africa between 2023 and 2043. The scenario forecasts that a strategic push toward industrialization will drive structural economic transformation, increase GDP, generate millions of jobs, and reduce extreme poverty and income inequality across the continent.

This research paper conclusion analyzes the current economic trajectory of Africa, highlighting a shift from subsistence agriculture to low-end informal urban services rather than manufacturing. It identifies systemic barriers to growth, including poor human capital, commodity dependence, and premature deindustrialisation, while proposing strategic investments in renewable energy, digital literacy, and regional integration to foster sustainable development.

This briefing by Zero Carbon Analytics examines the vulnerability of Asian nations to energy supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, particularly in the context of geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran. It identifies Japan as the country at the highest direct risk due to its extreme reliance on imported fossil fuels and the high volume of its trade passing through the chokepoint. The document argues that transitioning to renewable energy and electrification is the primary strategic path to enhancing energy security and reducing exposure to global price shocks.

This technical brief outlines a strategic roadmap for Jharkhand's economic transition to align with India's net-zero goals, focusing on diversifying a mining-dependent economy through four high-potential green sectors to mitigate future revenue and employment losses.

This briefing by Zero Carbon Analytics examines how a potential US slowdown in clean technology investment and deployment under a Donald Trump presidency could create market opportunities for emerging economies, specifically China, Brazil, and India.

This special report by the Institute for Security Studies provides a scenario-based economic and social forecast for the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) up to 2043. It compares a 'base trajectory' (current path) against various sectoral interventions and a combined 'Agenda 2063' scenario, analyzing impacts on GDP per capita, extreme poverty, the informal economy, life expectancy, inequality, carbon emissions, and energy production.

This appendix details the research methodology, definitional framework, and economic forecasting used to assess the natural infrastructure sector in the Canadian Prairies. It establishes a statistical framework based on NAICS codes to quantify the sector's current economic impact and projects growth through 2030 under three different investment scenarios.

This report compares three potential development scenarios for Tunisia leading up to 2040—Going for Growth, Leapfrogging, and Sustainability & Equality—against a 'Current Path' baseline. It evaluates their impacts on GDP, poverty, inequality, food security, and carbon emissions, highlighting that while all scenarios improve economic outcomes, they present different trade-offs regarding environmental sustainability and food independence.

This policy brief by the International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD) argues that Canada is unlikely to be the last country to sell oil due to a combination of declining global demand, price volatility, and higher production costs compared to Middle Eastern competitors. While Canada's heavy reliance on U.S. refineries provides a temporary buffer, the document suggests that ESG credentials will not protect market share and that the sector faces an existential threat as the world moves toward a post-peak oil market around 2030.

The report outlines three potential development scenarios for Tunisia leading up to 2040: 'Going for Growth', 'Leapfrogging', and 'Sustainability & Equality'. Each scenario evaluates different policy priorities—ranging from industrial growth and technological innovation to environmental stability—and their projected impacts on GDP and per capita income relative to a 'Current Path' forecast.

This conclusion to a special report by the Institute for Security Studies outlines the structural and regulatory barriers hindering Tunisia's economic growth and proposes a series of comprehensive reforms across governance, labor, education, and resource management to achieve inclusive development by 2040.

This report by the Institute for Security Studies analyzes political scenarios for South Africa leading up to 2029, focusing on the internal divisions of the African National Congress (ANC) and their impact on economic growth and national security.

This policy briefing by the Climate Bonds Initiative examines the expansion of carbon pricing into trade and economic policy, specifically focusing on the European Union's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). It argues that carbon pricing, when combined with preferential treatment for green goods and a 'Just Transition' spending policy, can drive global green capital flows and decarbonize hard-to-abate sectors.

This report by the Institute for Security Studies provides a scenario analysis of the long-term impacts of COVID-19 on Africa through 2030. Using the International Futures (IFs) forecasting platform, it examines three economic recovery paths (V, U, and L-shaped) and their effects on GDP, poverty, health expenditure, and Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The analysis concludes that the pandemic is likely to undo several years of development progress, increase extreme poverty, and exacerbate debt sustainability issues across the continent.

This policy brief summarises the book 'Africa First!' by Jakkie Cilliers, which analyses Africa's current development trajectory and proposes a roadmap to 2040. It argues that while human well-being indicators are improving, Africa is diverging further from the rest of the world in terms of average income and economic productivity due to an unproductive economic structure, slow demographic transition, and a lack of basic infrastructure.

This research paper examines the immediate and long-term impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on Africa, arguing that the crisis accelerates the decline of the liberal international order and increases the vulnerability of smaller nations. The author outlines five key long-term risks—the unravelling of multilateralism, increased trade protectionism, the decline of development cooperation, a potential retreat from climate goals, and restricted human mobility—and proposes a coordinated African response focused on regional integration and proactive global governance reform.

This policy brief by the Institute for Security Studies analyzes South Africa's economic trajectory following the COVID-19 pandemic. It compares a 'Current Path' of stagnation with a 'Thuma Mina' scenario based on structural reforms across health, education, energy, industrialization, investment, and agriculture. The author argues that while the pandemic has created a precarious economic situation, it also provides an opportunity to forge a new social compact and implement evidence-based policies to avoid a long-term crisis.