AFRICA MANUFACTURING FORECAST: THEMATIC FUTURES

This research paper analyzes the sectoral composition of economies across different income groups, focusing on the role of manufacturing, services, and ICT in economic development. It compares Africa's development trajectory with those of India, China, and the Asian Tigers, highlighting the impact of industrialization and demographic windows on growth.

• Economic advancement is characterized by a reallocation of activity from low-productivity to high-productivity sectors. As income rises, the services sector's contribution increases while agriculture and materials decline. Manufacturing grows during the transition to upper-middle-income status but diminishes in relative importance once high-income levels are reached, at which point high-end services drive growth.
• The ICT sector maintains a consistent contribution of approximately 4% in low-income countries and is two to three percentage points higher in other income groups. In high-income economies, ICT acts as a growth multiplier that facilitates knowledge exchanges and the functioning of regional and multinational value chains.
• Recent economic growth in several African countries has been driven by high commodity prices, which led to investment in extractive industries. This has limited economic diversification and manufacturing growth, leaving the continent vulnerable to external shocks.
• Africa's economic path has mirrored India's, where services dominated over agriculture and manufacturing. India's premature service sector growth without an industrial base, combined with a delayed demographic dividend (starting in 2008), resulted in slower growth and job creation. Africa is projected to reach its own demographic window of opportunity around 2051, contributing to its slow income improvements.
• China, Japan, and the Asian Tigers utilized a manufacturing-led strategy involving state planning, export-oriented industrialization, and investment in infrastructure and human capital. This approach allowed China to achieve sustained high growth and mass employment across rural and urban areas.

APA

Cilliers, J., & Ngundu, M. (2026). AFRICA MANUFACTURING FORECAST: THEMATIC FUTURES. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=07-manufacturing&topic=03-sectoral-composition

Chicago

Cilliers, Jakkie, and Marvellous Ngundu. AFRICA MANUFACTURING FORECAST: THEMATIC FUTURES. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=07-manufacturing&topic=03-sectoral-composition.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cilliers |first1=Jakkie |last2=Ngundu |first2=Marvellous |title=AFRICA MANUFACTURING FORECAST: THEMATIC FUTURES |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=29 March 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=07-manufacturing&topic=03-sectoral-composition |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cilliers2026africa, author = {Cilliers, Jakkie and Ngundu, Marvellous}, title = {{AFRICA MANUFACTURING FORECAST: THEMATIC FUTURES}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = mar, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=07-manufacturing&topic=03-sectoral-composition}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }