Impact of COVID-19 in Africa: A scenario analysis to 2030 (July 2020)

This report by the Institute for Security Studies provides a scenario analysis of the long-term impacts of COVID-19 on Africa through 2030. Using the International Futures (IFs) forecasting platform, it examines three economic recovery paths (V, U, and L-shaped) and their effects on GDP, poverty, health expenditure, and Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The analysis concludes that the pandemic is likely to undo several years of development progress, increase extreme poverty, and exacerbate debt sustainability issues across the continent.

• COVID-19 is projected to significantly reduce Africa's economic size by 2030, with the economy estimated to be between US$335 billion and US$617 billion smaller compared to pre-pandemic forecasts.
• The recovery of GDP per capita to 2019 levels (US$4,466 per person) varies by scenario: in the best-case (V) scenario, recovery occurs in 2024, while in the worst-case (L) scenario, it does not happen until 2030.
• Extreme poverty is expected to rise sharply; 14 million additional Africans were projected to be extremely poor in 2020, with an additional 38 to 70 million people classified as extremely poor by 2030, resulting in poverty rates between 35% and 37% of the total population.
• The pandemic is forecast to cause a cumulative reduction in health expenditure by 2030, ranging from US$135 billion in the V scenario to US$233 billion in the L scenario compared to the reference scenario.
• Total additional mortality from 2020 to 2030 is projected to be 2.1 million deaths in the V scenario, 3.6 million in the U scenario, and 5.8 million in the L scenario, encompassing both direct and indirect causes.
• The report identifies a high risk of debt distress for numerous countries, including Burundi, Cape Verde, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Djibouti, Ethiopia, The Gambia, Ghana, Kenya, Malawi, Mauritania, Liberia, Sierra Leone, Togo, and Zambia, while the Republic of Congo, Mozambique, Somalia, South Sudan, and São Tomé and Príncipe are already in debt distress.
• COVID-19 is expected to hinder the attainment of 2030 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), specifically increasing the undernourished population to between 233 million and 247 million people by 2030, and leaving infant mortality three times higher than the UN target.
• The report highlights a critical deficit in water, sanitation, and hygiene (WaSH) infrastructure, noting that Africa invests only 0.5% of GDP in water and sanitation, which undermines the ability to implement basic countermeasures like hand washing.
• The analysis suggests that the economic impact of COVID-19 will be the primary driver of suffering in Africa, rather than high mortality, due to the continent's youthful population (median age below 20 years).

APA

Cilliers, J. (2020). Impact of COVID-19 in Africa: A scenario analysis to 2030 (July 2020). Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/other/covid/

Chicago

Cilliers, Jakkie. Impact of COVID-19 in Africa: A scenario analysis to 2030 (July 2020). Institute for Security Studies, 2020. https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/other/covid/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cilliers |first1=Jakkie |title=Impact of COVID-19 in Africa: A scenario analysis to 2030 (July 2020) |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=July 2020 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/other/covid/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cilliers2020impact, author = {Cilliers, Jakkie}, title = {{Impact of COVID-19 in Africa: A scenario analysis to 2030 (July 2020)}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2020}, month = jul, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/other/covid/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }