Impact of COVID-19 in Africa: A scenario analysis to 2030

The report finds that COVID-19 is set to undo several years of development progress in Africa, with the economy projected to be between US$335 billion and US$617 billion smaller by 2030 compared to pre-pandemic forecasts. It highlights a severe risk of a debt crisis, significant reductions in health expenditure, and a widening gap in achieving the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals, particularly regarding extreme poverty. While Africa's youthful population may mitigate direct mortality, the report warns that indirect deaths from reduced health spending and disrupted care for diseases like HIV and malaria could be substantial. Recommendations include accelerating digitisation, improving water and sanitation (WaSH) infrastructure, and securing comprehensive debt relief.

• COVID-19 is projected to significantly shrink Africa's economy by 2030, with a loss between US$335 billion and US$617 billion relative to pre-pandemic forecasts.
• The pandemic is expected to increase extreme poverty; by 2030, an additional 38 to 70 million people may be classified as extremely poor, resulting in poverty rates of 35% to 37% of the total population.
• GDP per capita recovery varies by scenario: in the best-case (V) scenario, it returns to 2019 levels in 2024, while in the worst-case (L) scenario, this does not happen until 2030.
• The report warns that indirect mortality caused by reduced health expenditure and hunger could exceed direct COVID-19 deaths by 2030 in the worst-case scenario.
• Africa faces a severe fiscal crisis due to low tax-to-GDP ratios (13.4% in 2018) and high debt burdens, with government revenues in 2020 estimated at US$53 billion below pre-COVID forecasts.
• Cumulative reductions in health expenditure by 2030 are forecast to be US$135 billion in the V scenario, US$188 billion in the U scenario, and US$233 billion in the L scenario.
• The pandemic is expected to hinder progress toward the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals, including increasing the undernourished population to between 233 million and 247 million by 2030.
• Poor access to water, sanitation, and hygiene (WaSH) infrastructure is a critical vulnerability, with Africa investing only 0.5% of GDP in these services.
• The report suggests that COVID-19 could accelerate the transition to a digital economy and renewable energy, potentially allowing Africa to leapfrog toward a more sustainable economy.

APA

Cilliers, J. (2020). Impact of COVID-19 in Africa: A scenario analysis to 2030. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/other/covid/

Chicago

Cilliers, Jakkie. Impact of COVID-19 in Africa: A scenario analysis to 2030. Institute for Security Studies, 2020. https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/other/covid/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cilliers |first1=Jakkie |title=Impact of COVID-19 in Africa: A scenario analysis to 2030 |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=July 2020 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/other/covid/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cilliers2020impact, author = {Cilliers, Jakkie}, title = {{Impact of COVID-19 in Africa: A scenario analysis to 2030}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2020}, month = jul, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/other/covid/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }