Impact of the Manufacturing Scenario

This research paper by the Institute for Security Studies analyzes the projected economic and social impacts of a 'Manufacturing scenario' for Africa between 2023 and 2043. The scenario forecasts that a strategic push toward industrialization will drive structural economic transformation, increase GDP, generate millions of jobs, and reduce extreme poverty and income inequality across the continent.

• The Manufacturing scenario is projected to drive structural economic transformation in Africa, increasing the manufacturing sector's share of GDP to 18.1% by 2043, which is 1.8 percentage points higher than the Current Path. In absolute terms, the manufacturing sector would be US$168.2 billion larger than the Current Path by 2043, reaching approximately US$1.04 trillion.
• The scenario is expected to generate 34.6 million additional jobs by 2043 compared to the Current Path, consisting of approximately 30.94 million unskilled and 3.73 million skilled jobs. While informal services initially absorb labor exiting subsistence agriculture, manufacturing is projected to become the primary source of unskilled job growth as capacity matures, and the leading generator of skilled employment by 2041.
• Africa's average annual GDP growth would accelerate from 4.3% to 4.5% between 2023 and 2043 under this scenario. This results in a total GDP of US$6.67 trillion by 2043, which is US$282.8 billion larger than the US$6.39 trillion projected under the Current Path.
• Government revenue is projected to increase due to a larger formal economy and expanded tax net. By 2043, government revenue as a share of GDP would be 0.3 percentage points higher than the Current Path, representing an additional US$81.6 billion.
• The scenario forecasts an increase in GDP per capita (PPP) for Africa as a whole of US$190 above the baseline forecast of US$6,090 by 2043. Individual country gains vary significantly, with Botswana projected to see the highest increase (US$1,018) and countries such as Sudan and the Central African Republic seeing the smallest (US$33).
• Extreme poverty (at US$2.15/day) is expected to decline, with the poverty rate being 0.82 percentage points lower by 2043 than the Current Path's 17.8%. The scenario is projected to lift 3.8 million additional people out of poverty by 2030 and 19.11 million more by 2043.
• While income inequality may rise slightly until 2036/2037, the Gini index is expected to improve by 2043 in many countries. The greatest improvements in inequality are projected for Côte d'Ivoire, Botswana, Benin, and Senegal.

APA

Cilliers, J., & Ngundu, M. (2026). Impact of the Manufacturing Scenario. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=07-manufacturing&topic=08-impact-manufacturing-scenario

Chicago

Cilliers, Jakkie, and Marvellous Ngundu. Impact of the Manufacturing Scenario. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=07-manufacturing&topic=08-impact-manufacturing-scenario.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cilliers |first1=Jakkie |last2=Ngundu |first2=Marvellous |title=Impact of the Manufacturing Scenario |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=29 March 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=07-manufacturing&topic=08-impact-manufacturing-scenario |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cilliers2026impact, author = {Cilliers, Jakkie and Ngundu, Marvellous}, title = {{Impact of the Manufacturing Scenario}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = mar, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=07-manufacturing&topic=08-impact-manufacturing-scenario}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }