Impact of the Manufacturing Scenario

The Manufacturing scenario projects a structural economic transformation for Africa by 2043, increasing the manufacturing sector's GDP share to 18.1% and adding US$282.8 billion to the continent's total GDP. This shift is expected to generate 34.6 million additional jobs, primarily unskilled roles in agro-processing and services, while increasing government revenue by US$81.6 billion. The scenario forecasts a reduction in extreme poverty, lifting 19.11 million more people out of poverty by 2043 than the Current Path, and predicts a long-term decrease in income inequality through the expansion of the middle class.

• By 2043, the manufacturing sector's share of GDP is projected to reach 18.1%, which is 1.8 percentage points higher than the Current Path. The sector is expected to be US$168.2 billion larger than under the Current Path, totaling approximately US$1.04 trillion.
• The scenario is expected to create 34.6 million additional jobs by 2043, consisting of approximately 30.94 million unskilled and 3.73 million skilled positions. Unskilled labour demand is most pronounced in agriculture, specifically within the agro-processing sub-sector.
• Africa's average annual GDP growth would increase from 4.3% to 4.5% under this scenario. By 2043, the total GDP would reach US$6.67 trillion, an increase of US$282.8 billion over the Current Path.
• Government revenue as a share of GDP is projected to be 0.3 percentage points higher by 2043 than the Current Path, representing an additional US$81.6 billion. This is attributed to a larger economy and the formalisation of businesses.
• The scenario projects an increase in GDP per capita of US$190 for Africa as a whole by 2043. Specific countries are expected to see higher gains, with Botswana leading at US$1,018, followed by Namibia (US$670), Egypt (US$624), Zimbabwe (US$545), and Djibouti (US$525).
• Extreme poverty (at US$2.15/day) is expected to be 0.82 percentage points lower by 2043 compared to the Current Path. This would lift 3.8 million additional people out of poverty by 2030 and 19.11 million more by 2043.
• The most significant absolute reductions in poverty headcounts by 2043 are expected in Nigeria (4.45 million), DR Congo (3.44 million), Mozambique (1.79 million), Uganda (813,300), and Niger (782,800).
• While income inequality may rise slightly until 2036/2037, the Gini index is expected to improve by 2043. The greatest improvements in inequality are projected for Côte d'Ivoire, Botswana, Benin, and Senegal.

APA

Cilliers, J., & Ngundu, M. (2026). Impact of the Manufacturing Scenario. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=07-manufacturing&topic=08-impact-manufacturing-scenario

Chicago

Cilliers, Jakkie, and Marvellous Ngundu. Impact of the Manufacturing Scenario. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=07-manufacturing&topic=08-impact-manufacturing-scenario.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cilliers |first1=Jakkie |last2=Ngundu |first2=Marvellous |title=Impact of the Manufacturing Scenario |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=29 March 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=07-manufacturing&topic=08-impact-manufacturing-scenario |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cilliers2026impact, author = {Cilliers, Jakkie and Ngundu, Marvellous}, title = {{Impact of the Manufacturing Scenario}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = mar, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=07-manufacturing&topic=08-impact-manufacturing-scenario}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }